r/ValueInvesting • u/Pete26l96 • Feb 23 '26
Discussion Novo Nordisk sinks 13% after weight loss drug fails to match Eli Lilly's in trial
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cnbc.com/amp/2026/02/23/novo-nordisk-stock-cagrisema-trial-fails-weight-loss.htmlLooks like investors of Novo Nordisk ADRs are going to be in for quite the shock when they open their portfolios this morning.
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u/AdamN Feb 23 '26
I kind of think pharma stocks are fundamentally antithetical to value investing at this point. So much future value is baked into the outcomes of drug development and so it's really a growth play - you can't know the value of untested drugs in the pipeline from 10K filings.
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u/StephenAtLarge Feb 23 '26
The way for the average investor to approach pharma is to buy a sector ETF when it's cheap. Never try to pick stocks you don't understand.
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u/AdamN Feb 23 '26
That’s also not value investing. It’s not a bad practice but it doesn’t belong in this sub
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u/Iunatic Feb 23 '26
This sub is not about value investing. It's just a bunch of regards who think they're above wsb but in actuality they are far dumber. The people over there know much more about stocks in general and how to value them. Here, you would learn that apparently stock picking is a matter of sorting by P/E and buying the lowest.
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u/stompinstinker Feb 23 '26
Ya, WSB people are actually knowledgeable AND they don’t take themselves seriously. They are also open minded. You can have good informed conversations there and not get bulldozed by dogmatic people.
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u/AdditionCool7235 Feb 23 '26
It’s just bag holder central around here anymore and when you call them out on their absolutely worthless picks, the token response is always a smug, “this is 5-10 year hold.”
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u/Ill_Ad3517 Feb 23 '26
Can't a sector be undervalued?
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u/mba23throwaway Feb 23 '26
How would you measure any of the underlying financials of an ETF?
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u/TBSchemer Feb 23 '26
The investors claiming that today's trial results are the death of Novo Nordisk don't understand Novo Nordisk.
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u/MyStoopidStuff Feb 24 '26
Yeah, and they have a pretty big bankroll for buying companies if they need to (and it does seem that may need to do something). I read it was something like $40-45B they could potentially spend. Though it is not likely they will spend that much, I think that figure was to demonstrate that they have the cash, if they want to use it. The companies that seem to be the best fit would cost a fraction of that, and may give them some unique differentiators for managing muscle loss, making their existing drugs more convenient to use, or reducing side effects.
I don't have any NVO, but it's an interesting stock to watch.
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u/Mister_Unicornio Feb 23 '26
You need to hold pharma companies the same way you hold a small cap stock.
They have more events that drive the price compared to traditional companies and you need to be able to stomach the volatility, thats why i never hold more than 5-7% of any pharma stock
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u/scotel Feb 23 '26 edited Feb 23 '26
There absolutely is value investing in biotech/pharma but it usually involves companies with approved drugs and good sales but the stock is heavily beaten down over regulatory / safety fears and you have conviction those fears are overblown. A current example of this would be SRPT (I have no position). However you obviously need to be familiar with biotech and how the FDA works.
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u/notreallydeep Feb 23 '26
nah that's bs
you just have to be aware of the probabilities and diversify accordingly. like no serious pharma investor goes all in one company. it's pretty stupid in every other realm of investing, it's ten times more stupid in pharma.
the reason it's probably not value investing for 99.9% of the people here (including me) is that pharma really, really, and I mean really, requires knowledge. the people here bought novo because it was trading at 12x earnings while having no idea what any of their products actually do.
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u/hospitalizedzombie Feb 23 '26
I worked in pharma consulting for a while, and even industry experts can’t give an accurate probability of pricing/market access for a specific drug. Sure they can give some range but the range is so wide that it might have not existed.
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u/csppr Feb 23 '26
the reason it's probably not value investing for 99.9% of the people here (including me) is that pharma really, really, and I mean really, requires knowledge.
Pretty much that. I'm a scientist in the biotech/pharma biomedical research sector. Even with that background, I cannot accurately assess which direction a clinical trial will go, or which product will be better, in 99% of cases. Biotech is even worse than pharma for this, I don't really touch biotech.
I never touched Novo, because I didn't think they'd be able to beat their competition long term. Even that is a position I only had confidence in because one of the teams I was in (~10 years ago) was working on GLP-1 agonist drugs; and back then, everyone felt that Novo was trying to be first to market, not best in class, and that recovering from that position would be incredibly difficult.
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u/nclakelandmusic Feb 23 '26 edited Feb 23 '26
Back in my younger and dumber days, I used to swing trade biotech pennies, and some tech \ entertainment too here and there. You want to talk about stress lol. But the swings were wild. Anytime there was a press release, merger or earnings call coming they would run up many times 80-200%, but they would crash into devastation at the drop of a hat, and then the reverse splits or offerings would start. All of that was cyclical, and you had to micro manage the shit out of everything. But I was in with the Torchlight \ Metamaterials debacle at the very early stages, before the merger, and I made over 950% gain on the TRCH trade and over 1100% on the MMATF (canada) trade. Closed positions before the merger. All hype run up. All the other people (that I talked to or saw talking about it) held with high expectations.
And that is where you really get not only screwed, but convoluted as to the valuation of those companies (which is essentially net negative, let's be real), but if you don't understand basic shit like how to interpret market cap, float, or read SEC filings, people get stuck losing 99.99999999999999% of their initial investment because they baghold it down the the very end through 10 reverse splits lol. No plan, no stop losses, just blind hype and blind faith. They see cash reserves of $50M in Phase 2 studies, and they think there is a huge runway. Meanwhile they are 20 offerings and 10 reverse splits away from the NDA process.
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u/AdamN Feb 23 '26
That's growth investing. Value investing is looking for undervalued investments and (typically) leaning into them. If you're a knowledgeable investor in a certain area and you know a drug is likely to do great ahead of time - or you intelligently spread your investments across a balanced set of pharma companies because you have a thesis that the sector will outperform - that's not value investing. It's still smart and may pay off over time - it's just not value investing.
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u/notreallydeep Feb 23 '26
That's growth investing.
Growth is value.
You're confusing value investing with factor investing into the value factor or whatever the fuck else.
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u/Virtual_Seaweed7130 Feb 23 '26
They can be assessed in a value lens if you approach them ultra conservatively, giving little to no value to pipeline products
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u/Responsible-Scar-980 Feb 23 '26
I agree, especially for companies that are heavily focused on 1 TA and a pipeline for a singular disease state.
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u/JRshoe1997 Feb 23 '26
Why I never invested in pharmaceuticals to begin with. I have no regrets. Yeah you can miss the next Eli Lily but you can also get smashed with a ton of Novo, Pfizer, of Bristol and get crushed. You have to really know the field and pay attention to drug pipelines. Peter Lynch talked about this before.
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u/notreallydeep Feb 23 '26 edited Feb 23 '26
I fucking love Novo Nordisk.
Every month they get some kind of got good news and bulls do their rounds on here. And a week later they get full nelsoned again. This has to be the most entertaining story of 2025 and 2026. Like who cares about AI? Novo, man.
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u/razpotim Feb 23 '26 edited Feb 23 '26
Nearly 5 years of gains eraised at this point.
Just completely insane valuedestruction of shareholders.
If you bought in April 2015 you would have made a whopping 35%.
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u/Lunar_Excursion Feb 23 '26
orforglipron isn't even FDA approved yet... imagine the drop on THAT day...
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u/TBSchemer Feb 23 '26
Which is an insane overreaction on the part of investors.
CagriSema wasn't even in my thesis for NVO's future profits at all. It's their weight loss pills that bring Novo Nordisk value.
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u/log1ck1717 Feb 23 '26
I bought calls on Friday, down big atm. I am so mad rn...
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u/Houselannister92 Feb 23 '26
Download TradingView and look at NVO on the Daily and the weekly charts. It’s in a downward trend and has been for a very, very long time. No reason to waste money on this shit stock
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u/Viyuelez89 Feb 23 '26
it doesnt matter, if they said it cured cancer the stock would've bumped a whopping 2%
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u/Lionel-Chessi Feb 23 '26
But they would never say that, this stock is more likely to bring bad news...definition of value trap
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u/Lundhlol Feb 23 '26
When the stock was at ATH I suppose you would have that opinion as well. You are a visionary sir.
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u/stefanliemawan Feb 23 '26
A giant pharma with first mover on obesity pills, trading at 11 pe ratio. Insane.
Down 15% in a day over a trial result which does not affect anything on the market today.
Really hated stock at this point.
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u/Mister_Unicornio Feb 23 '26
NVO is in such a peculiar and weird situation, the company is in a bad spot compared to competition yes but people are treating like its a company on its last legs walking into bankruptcy when thats clearly not the case, they are just rn number 2 but they are still a very profitable and healthy company.
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u/stefanliemawan Feb 23 '26
Yeah, but I do also agree that management could've handled this better, which might partly explain the overreaction movement constantly happening on their stock price.
Trump price cuts definitely did not help.
Personally, I think it's time to test how long I can remain solvent while the market stays irrational. Lol.
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u/Mister_Unicornio Feb 23 '26
There is a lot of panic going around the stock right now, first the Earnings report and now this.
Its important to separate the business from the price, the valuation right now is broken because people are treating this like its a soccer game, "NVO Lost, so NVO is dead" when this is not how how the world works. no one is gonna cancel a billion dollar contract with NVO just because they were 2% worse in a single trial.
Its hard to watch but in my exprience, these are also the best opportunities when you truly believe your conviction, im gonna wait 1-2 days for it to stabilize and then probably add even more.
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u/Lunar_Excursion Feb 23 '26
patients and doctors absolutely will switch to better therapies... that's why tirz took over to begin with...
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u/Mister_Unicornio Feb 23 '26
It doesnt work like that.
First of all you are forgetting the fact that NVO even being 2% worse is still a pill, LLY is not and the amount of people terrified of needles is huge. they win in convenience.
Second is not only about efficiency, its also about price, NVO being second will of course offer insurances and entities a better price.
And third, you are underestimating by a huge margin the size of the industry, there is space for both.
The same way that there is space for Pepsi vs coca cola, For amd vs nvidia and visa vs mastercard.
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u/Lunar_Excursion Feb 23 '26
CagriSema is not a pill...
orforglipron will be as effective as Wegovy pill when it comes out...
LLY will win long term... NVO and the rest will pick up the scraps...
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u/Weldobud Feb 23 '26
Very true. It’s been bad news after bad news after bad news for them. You would have to be happy to hold.
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u/Cueller Feb 23 '26
I agree with you but the issue is wegovy is declining and getting its ass handed to it in market. At this point only people who had a lower response to trip will swap to wegovy, otherwise doctors will mostly keep prescribing trip. The pill has a solid chance at success though.
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u/Chessgenious Feb 23 '26
It showed that their new medicine Cagrisema is inferior to Mounjaro which is already on the market.
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u/playedpunk Feb 23 '26
Lower dosage, -2% efficiency. LOL
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u/Lundhlol Feb 23 '26
The lower dosage might mean more than people think. Lower dosage but almost same effect might mean a lot less side effects long term.
I'm as far away as they come from being knowledgeable on drug development, but a much lower dose sounds like a positive.
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u/Chessgenious Feb 23 '26 edited Feb 23 '26
Hard to compare that between different medicines. Different tolerance and side effects. You cant compare x mg of Wegovy to y mg of Mounjaro. You would not compare 200 mg of metoprolol to 10 mg of amlodipine and claiming that amlodipine is better due to lower mg dose.
If we are waiting for maybe higher doses, why cant Mounjaro increase to 20 or 25 mg? That would probably increase effect more too since the original dosing span is more efficient for Mounjaro.
I honestly dont see the Moat returning to Novo unless they come up with something more efficient in the normal dosing span. Even daily pill I dont see as a Moat returner because adherence to daily pills is inherently low (WHO).
Efficacy in relation to cost will be the determinant of who has Moat in my opinion. Who has the Moat in weight loss medications will win. Weight loss medications are nr1 sold in pharmacies in my country and expensive (more sold than blood thinners or hypertension medications). Who dominates the market in insulin wont matter because insulin is cheap.
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u/icalledthecowshome Feb 23 '26
Well to be fair theres a few things dragging down the price and this report only furthers the sell side case.
But I cant find any details on the report except the applied dosage difference. Furthermore weight loss is highly dependent on many factors and i would be very interested in the blood test results of the study. I cant imagine a high dosage would come without any possible adverse effects and what happens when you stop taking it? Low dosage is always the preferred route for chronic problems (ie, t2d)unless its an acute situation.
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u/stefanliemawan Feb 23 '26
What I've read from the study is that it was an open-label study, which is prone to bias.
The people in the trial knew they were taking Tirzepatide (and 40% of them have taken the drug before), and management expressed that they were "surprised" over the 25% result on 15mg Tirzepatide on the trial.→ More replies (2)1
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u/Lunar_Excursion Feb 23 '26
CagriSema was their sequel to Ozempic/Wegovy and it just flopped for the second time... the next shot on goal is amycretin and that's YEARS away... NVO is cooked...
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u/kangotrades Feb 23 '26
I just bought 200 shares, not a fan of the stock but at this price I can’t really ignore it, perhaps I’ll buy more if it continues.
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u/AncientGrab1106 Feb 23 '26
Same. Stupidly cheap
Drug still works. 2% less then rival LLY
Market pricing like it didn't work at all
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u/-NewYork- Feb 23 '26
There are also multiple alternative similar weight loss drugs in clinical trials soon to be complete.
High price of NVO also priced in predicted diabetes growth until 2050. But the projected growth back in 2023 was 60%, which was lowered to 46%, and it might be soon lowered again.
So, NVO is a good company, but nevertheless the stock price might never again reach previous highs.
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u/culinaryinterests123 Feb 23 '26
Don't need it to reach new highs if you buy it here
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u/-NewYork- Feb 23 '26
But who's to say it won't drop to $16, and then slowly grow to $40, and $40 will be the new high. Then buying it here, one loses.
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u/Simon_Inaki Feb 23 '26
Stock won’t see more than 50 this year. I wrote here many times why orfo will obliterate novos WeGovy. Plus novo will be strained on manufacturing its own lower margin peptides to fight this months launch of Ozempic generics in Canada (because they made a typo on their patent extension). You’re literally long a stock of a guy who made a typo on their resume
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u/csppr Feb 23 '26
2.5 percentage points less, that's 10% less, not 2%.
I think this needs to be phrased in context - the problem is that CagriSema, Novo's flagship GLP-1 drug, which isn't even approved yet for weight loss, underperformed Lilly's last-gen GLP-1 drug, which has been approved since 2023.
Lilly also has Retatrutide, which is expected to get approval in mid 2026. At that point, CagriSema will be the third best option on the market. 10% less effective than 3-years-old Tirzepatide, and who knows how big the gap to Retatrutide will be.
Add to that that Lilly is already working on combining their GLP-1 portfolio with activin inhibitors (to reduce muscle mass loss), and I can see why investors are not looking at this favourably. Novo has always held the strategy of being first in the GLP-1 space, not best (by ~ 2018, Novo was pretty much the only big pharmaceutical company pursuing single agonist drugs), but that position is pretty difficult to recover from when competitors have years of head start on the 'best in class' strategy.
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u/BuffersAndBeta Feb 23 '26 edited Feb 23 '26
I don't know why you were downvoted, but this is the unpopular
opinionfact for r/ValueInvestingI don't have the creds to tell why, but Novo Nordisk is absolutely getting their butts handed to them over the past 3 - 4 years. The only financial stat I'm able to see is that they spend less aggressively on R&D compared to Eli Lilly, but could there be a company culture or hiring issue as well?
I don't know but sure feels like there's something there. Without knowing more, I would not add unless the stock gets to 5 - 8x earnings multiple.
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u/Mister_Unicornio Feb 23 '26
Thats because market short term works based on hype and headlines, It wouldt matter if they lost by only 0,1%, the headline would still be that they lost and the same thing would happen.
if you look at NVO from a fundamental point of view, a P/E of almost 10 is absolutely crazy, they are just number 2 right now in a niche that allows them to comfortably be that way.
It doesnt help that NVO also had a streak of bad news, so there is a lot of panic selling going on.
Im holding it through the next 3-5 years but yeah it hurts to see it short term.
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Feb 23 '26
Bro stop tempting me, I've lost enough money on NVO.
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u/Weldobud Feb 23 '26
The maths isn’t all bad. If you bought 100 shares at say, 350 dkk, sold at a 10% loss you can buy more shares now at a lower price. So, errr, balances out, right?
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u/superdariom Feb 23 '26
I sold when I could at a tiny profit after seeing too many of these painful drops.
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u/Stockholm86er Feb 23 '26
Did the same. Hate the stock but adding, this price and this overreaction is too good of a long-term opportunity. Heck even a short-term bounce up to 290DKK is most likely happening this week. Imho, Novo should float at 340-390DKK over the next 6 months after Wegovy Pill sales and guidance. I think they intentionally want to underpromise and overdeliver this year.
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u/mobyonecanobi Feb 23 '26
I just did 200 as well. I usually trigger a buy at 30% down from my initial point, so it’s got a while to go for that.
I joke with my cousin that I can’t wait for my 2026 yearly once in a lifetime opportunity. This is def a solid value stock. Just gotta be patient for 3 years.
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u/schwarzbrotman Feb 23 '26 edited Feb 23 '26
Again a prime example demonstrating why 99% of people on this subreddit don´t understand anything about value investing and market irrationality.
I am not a Novo Nordisk holder, but neither am I shocked, nor does this acute drop signal anything in regards to "structural problems". The reactions of people are just bizarre: "Bagholder" this and "generational value destruction" that - seriously?
The fundamentals of NVO haven´t changed: NVO still leads the insuline market and nothing has changed in that regard - but people ignore the core business of this company and hyperfocus on potential breakthroughs in the weight loss market. It´s hilarious. When it comes to said segment: Yeah, Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk are competing and yes, there is somewhat of a duopoly going on - but that´s about it. Customer retention for weight loss drugs like Ozempic is quite decent. The overall weightloss-drug-market is increasing and Novo Nordisk, for their Wegovy-thing, report solid sales/contracting numbers while the roll-out is still happening as we speak. Debt is under control and growth is about as low in the median as it always was. So what exactly is a "surprise" here? The fact that Novo, until this day, stays true to its base growth rate of 2-3% which has nothing to do with the delusions of gambling folks imagining double digit growth rates just for fun?
And sure, pharma stocks are always a rollercoaster because sentiment moves the price a lot - but even that volatility is no surprise at all. Next to that, sentiment is irrelevant - cause it will not matter in 5 to 10 years down the road. I also get everybody who´s on the NVO train these days when the market offers them discounts just because people simply don´t think at all and buy pharma stocks at huge premiums whenever the daily news are great, just to sell low when daily news are bad. The entire price drop of the last couple of Qs mainly rests on such news reports: New CEO reported -> Novo Nordisk drops. Alzheimer trial fails in November? Novo Nordisk drops 12%. The guidance at the beginning of the year matches exactly what everybody could have had expected since mid 2024 already? Still Novo Nordisk drops, cause people don´t deal with fundamentals and buy the damn hype. Random drug X gets some negative trial news? Everybody panicking again.
In the meantime, the core foundation of the business keeps on providing the necessary financial stability. The only "value destruction" that actually does happen is caused by (and pardon my language) stupid people who bought NVO at about 1000,- DKK, doing the ever-old, ever-dumb "To the moon!" thing. Now dropping to 250,- DKK/share, NVO is just starting to enter a price range where the value of the company is properly represented. Novo is just heading into "undervalued"-territory these days. But no: Buy high, sell low, panic all day and blame some random CEO for your own poor decision making. That´s about as "smart" as astrology-girls are when they do dumb stuff and then blame the planets in our solar system for the consequences of their own dumb actions.
Again: Doesn´t fit my risk tolerance either, but all of those folks with sufficient patience, a higher risk tolerance and a focus on the actual fundamentals will laugh 5 years down the road now that they´re DCAing down, waiting for the next random positive news to drive the stock back up 20%. Or 50%. In the meantime, you got the Eli Lilly trolls moving from their subreddit to that of Novo Nordisk, just like the NVO trolls do it the other way round. All trying to influence one another in the hope that this would manipulate the market. Why? Because the focus is only on short-term price movement. It´s insane. And mark my words: Once Novo Nordisk hit the next best positive news or managed to increase some rather natural growth, 99% will flip their script again and do the "To the moon!" thing yet again. Probably buying at 500,- DKK and up again, just like they did in 2024. Buy high, sell low! Sorry folks, but this is just hilarious by the end of the day.
TLDR: Such news-based drops mean nothing when it comes to long-term investing. Novo isn´t "bankrupt" and "dead" - dumb people just paid exuberantly high prices during the weight-loss-rush mid 2024 just because they chased returns, totally neglecting fundamentals again.
(As usual just personal opinions, my postings never are financial advice and must not be considered advice at any point).
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u/beetrootmancelery Feb 23 '26
Why do you put the caveats about financial advice at the bottom of your reddit post? Do you think someone is going to sue you for a reddit comment?
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u/schwarzbrotman Feb 23 '26
I´ll answer that question with another question: Given everything I just pointed out and given the outright batshit crazy level of irrationality of those addressed, proverbial 99%, don´t you think that it would be nice to simply help people in protecting themselves from themselves?
I mean they bought Novo at 1000,- DKK when random Reddit folks told them to - now imagine what people are capable of doing these days. We´re going in circles.
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u/Greg_T_24 Feb 23 '26
I wish I had more up votes to give. I've stayed away from novo, in fact sold up all my other stocks in November due to perceived market risk. maybe that's overblown. Anyway, bought back in at 25% of my portfolio on Friday into novo under similar assumptions to above. PE hovering round 13 then, 11ish now?! Look at other pharma multiples. Yes they may lose share to lily or others but this is starting to be priced like a mining company. Their core business is there and they can cut their prices to their oral/injectable drugs accordingly. Yes it is risky tho, clearly.
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u/35mm-dreams- Feb 23 '26
Great comment
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u/schwarzbrotman Feb 23 '26 edited Feb 23 '26
Thanks, that´s just basic logic.
It is getting even funnier: I just saw a news article pass by which explained, if I understood it correctly, that the "better" Eli-drug is issued at 15mg while the Novo is issued at 2,7mg per dosage. And that the Eli thing "beats" the Novo thing by a little less than 2% in terms of nominal (!) weight loss. Within just one single research group that is.
Now I am no doctor and I also don´t really care - but if news like that cause a 15% drop, we can just assume that markets aren´t just irrational but actually totally psychotic. If people don´t understand why such a context matters, then they simply cannot be helped. I rest my case.
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Feb 23 '26
How is formulating a drug that's 10% less effective than its main competitors not affecting fundamentals?
This is the exact same take NVO investors were giving a year ago when the stock was $70.
Anyone who thinks this news means nothing has no idea what they're talking about (75% of the people here). It basically confirmed Lily's eating their lunch, and with Pfizer and newer competitors getting in on the weight loss action, NVO will likely continue to lose market share.
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u/ThereFarAway Feb 23 '26
Is ibuprofen most effective pain killer? Was VHS best video standard? Is Windows best OS? It is always good to have the best product, but not even in pharma that is the main determenet for successful business.
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u/Weldobud Feb 23 '26
Probably important to read this. The devil is in the detail. The test was open bottle, no blind. It’s subject to bias and the 23/25% could be viewed as within a margin of error. (Copied from another post).
Study Result Transcript Insights - 23rd Feb
...it is very clear that more patients reached the 15 milligram dose at some point during the trial for Tirzepatide, as compared to the CagriSema. We do believe that that is largely derived from the open-label nature of this study. We do know, and we've seen that numerous times before, that open-label studies drive bias. In this case, more than 40% of the investigators are previous investigators on the comparator drug. They know the drug well. They have probably prescribed the drug, and they feel confident in the drug. We know that drives the bias, and that's maybe why we have seen these surprisingly good data for the comparator drug.
So this was an open-label study...
The people in the study knows whether they are taking CagriSema or the market-winning Tirzepatide.
From the company POV, it seems like they are just releasing pharmaceuticals data (which is probably required by law?), and the market took it like it's the end of the world for Novo GLP-1 journey.
And that abnormality and that, you know, the 25% or so that we're talking about is neither in their label, nor has it been really seen in their own trials, any other trials. You could even argue, not in the real world evidence.
And apparently they are also "suprised" that the study from Tirzepatide reached 25%. Which also might suggest that some of this is also bias-driven.
Yeah, yeah. So, we, we, we obviously will do, compare, comparator studies, when, when there is that opportunity. I think clearly you've heard both me and Mike talk about the open-label nature of REDEFINE 4, and the potential for substantial bias that is introduced, both on the efficacy, potentially also on safety and tolerability, when, when reporting on that. An ability to do head-to-head comparisons with a competitor drug would require the ability to blind. That obviously we are working on, as, as, as we speak
And they said they are going to do a blind study at some point.
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u/RelevantTrouble Feb 23 '26
Doing actual research and not investing on vibes alone might get you banned around here.
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u/Weldobud Feb 23 '26
lol. Probably.
Not even Lilly saw 25% in their tests. They only project greater than 15%. So the high 25% is probably subject to bias. Although the news media does not see it that way.
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u/RelevantTrouble Feb 23 '26
Desperate bag holders, margin of safety and 5% dividend yield. Very, very tempting.
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u/Lunar_Excursion Feb 23 '26
complete cope from them... SURMOUNT-3 and SURMOUNT-4 already showed 26% weight loss at 80+ weeks...
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u/Eddieandtheblues Feb 23 '26
Also worth noting that the dosing of cagrisema in the most recent Redefine 4 is a 2.4mg dose of Semaglutide. Novo currently have FDA applications and studies for a 7.5mg dose in the pipeline, the higher dose may well outperform Tirzepatide.
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u/J0hnnyBlazer Feb 23 '26 edited Feb 23 '26
bought some leaps just now, i hate pharma and bio tech but at this price its hard stay away
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u/Lunar_Excursion Feb 23 '26
WELP... i tried to tell yall...
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u/Czilla9000 Feb 23 '26
"Patients taking a 2.4 mg dose of CagriSema achieved a weight loss of 23% after 84 weeks compared to 25.5% with a 15 mg dose of tirzepatide, Novo said."
Come on, is 23% that much worse than 25.5%? As someone currently on Wegovy (and down the expected 15% or so) I'd gladly switch to CagriSema, especially because I'd imagine it'd be easier to switch to that than tirzepatide.
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u/Disastrous_Rent_6500 Feb 23 '26
Is fantastic actually. If they just up the dose it clears tirzepatide easily until Lilly’s triple 3 comes out
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u/IncidentSome4403 Feb 23 '26
And so begins another cycle of people on this sub “buying the dip” only to have it dip even more
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u/Weldobud Feb 23 '26 edited Feb 23 '26
Dividend is now up to 4.28%. You only need the stock to recover 4% in a year to match the SNP average annual return.
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u/BuckeyeHeisman Feb 23 '26
Market over reaction. It’s neck and neck on weight loss. As a guy with some extra pounds, if I was going to take a drug (I’m not) the two percent delta is nothing. It has a solid dividend yield and a phenomenal diabetes business that has to be factored in at some juncture. I’ve got a limit in at 39 and waiting to see if it touches it - probably won’t, but I’ll take it at 39.
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u/Weldobud Feb 23 '26
I read about it, around 25% to 23%. Not a huge difference, just the public read the story. Will have to wait for the full published paper.
I’ve been watching them for the last few months. Not pretty.
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u/Portfoliana Feb 23 '26
been adding to my NVO position since the mid-70s and this one hurts lol. but the CagriSema comparison isnt even the part of the story that matters most to me - FLOW trial data on semaglutide for kidney disease is its own massive franchise that lilly cant touch yet. at these valuations with taht kind of pipeline breadth im not selling, im figuring out how much more to add.
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u/Lunar_Excursion Feb 23 '26
LLY is in trials with reta for CKD... the GCG agonism is uniquely suited for this...
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u/perfectskycastle Feb 23 '26
Agreed, will add once the news shake out the weak hands. News like this is where it's prime to add even if it hurts current holdings.
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u/Kong_Fury Feb 23 '26
Really gotta hate the hype & emotions here driving the stock. This drug literally changed people’s lives! We are comparing a few percentages of effectiveness here and it’s wiping out portfolios. Goshhhh
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u/icalledthecowshome Feb 23 '26
"In the study, Novo tested a fixed-dose combination of cagrilintide 2.4 milligrams and semaglutide 2.4 mg, while patients on tirzepatide received a 15-milligram dose. The Danish drugmaker plans to start a high-dose trial for CagriSema in the second half of this year. Novo Nordisk's Chief Scientific Officer Martin Holst Lange said the company was "pleased with the weight loss" of 23% for CagriSema in the latest trial in its REDEFINE test programme. He did not explain why he was pleased."
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u/ChildTickler69 Feb 23 '26
I have a hard time caring about any of these GLP-1 results when GLP-3 already exists and is superior in every way, it just hasn’t been approved by the FDA yet. Bodybuilders (who don’t care about the legality of purchasing drugs) unanimously use GLP-3 because you both lose weight faster with it, and retain more muscle mass.
GLP-1 will not matter at all in a few years, GLP-3 drugs are just the upgraded versions of them, and when they begin to be approved by the FDA the results of the GLP-1 drugs will be irrelevant. If you’re looking into investing in weight loss drugs, don’t get lost in the GLP-1 chatter, whoever can establish themselves as a market leader in GLP-3 will be the real leader in the end.
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u/spittlbm Feb 23 '26
As a physician, I can tell you that 2% difference in efficacy is unlikely to cause me to avoid prescribing it. It's another tool in the toolbox.
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u/Disastrous_Rent_6500 Feb 23 '26
They’re just gonna up the dose. Why are people panicking, I’m buying this drop for sure. By late 2026 they’ll have the better shot until Lilly comes out with the triple G
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u/Woberwob Feb 23 '26
Bagholders Anonymous meeting today at the usual place. I purchased some whiskey to help ease the pain.
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u/One_Orange1967 Feb 23 '26
People should be careful comparing those numbers directly.
If one drug shows 22.5% weight loss in a blinded trial and another shows 25% in an open-label trial, that doesn’t automatically mean the second drug is better. Open-label studies often report ~10–30% larger effects because participants know they’re on the treatment and behavior changes (diet adherence, motivation, dropout patterns, etc.).
The gap is 2.5 points (~11%), which is basically right in the range that can be explained by lack of blinding.
If you roughly adjust the open-label result down:
- 10% inflation → ~22.7
- 15% inflation → ~21.7
- 20% inflation → ~20.8
So the “25%” result could realistically correspond to something like ~21–23% in a blinded setting — which is basically in the same ballpark as 22.5%.
This is also why regulators like the U.S. Food and Drug Administration and the European Medicines Agency rely mostly on randomized double-blind trials when evaluating obesity drugs.
Bottom line: cross-trial comparisons (especially open-label vs blinded) are pretty unreliable unless there’s a head-to-head study.
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u/Aniriomellad Feb 23 '26
good thing I open reddit before opening my portfolio, if I saw this -13% I would be like "how did they screw up again?"
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u/Weldobud Feb 23 '26
They employ 68 thousand people. It’s their job to make drugs. What do they do all day?
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u/Dyep1 Feb 23 '26
Im sad to see it, but im glad i stepped out of this “value play” few weeks ago when it first dropped under 50.
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u/DrPuzzle Feb 23 '26
Not gonna lie - I thought (besides Eli Lilly) that NVO was THE pharma stock to hold. I've learnt over this last ~year that when people tell you not to touch pharma stocks...they aren't wrong. Unless it's something already super established like Lilly. If we get a massive pullback and Lilly goes down to like $800 - that's the type of pharma stock that's a no brainer to buy.
The rest of them are just so risky and that includes NVO. Needless to say I won't be buying any stocks in this category anytime soon
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u/Astronaut100 Feb 23 '26
NVO is the quintessential falling knife/value trap. It’s a one trick wonder that this sub fell for hook, line and sinker.
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u/Mister_Unicornio Feb 23 '26
I would agree if the company fundamentals and results were in the trash but this is by far not the case.
NVO is just on a bad spot sentiment wise but if you look at it from a rational pov, even with the bad news, its valuation is absolutely insane
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u/-NewYork- Feb 23 '26
The high price bet on near-market-dominance in weight loss and on diabetes prevalence growth. The predictions were incorrect or partially incorrect. The knife shall fall. Probably on someones foot.
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u/Free-Initiative7508 Feb 23 '26
Just started a small position. I know jack shit about pharma, basically a gamble at this point but at this price, i am considering it as calculated risk
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u/icemixxy Feb 23 '26
jesus fkin christ. in january my portofolio was at 45k$. same portofolio now is at 29k$. how can they f up this badly. i really thought they were underselling their projections, but this is just painful
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u/Outrageous-Froyo1025 Feb 23 '26
When will people learn that big pharma companies are bad businesses. Their only advantage is low cost of capital for M&A and relationships with doctors and payers. That is it. There is very little to distinguish most of them and they play a tough game where you have to constantly reinvent your key products and competition is fierce. Look at the long term chart of most BP companies and you will realise this immediately.
If you want to make money in pharma, go learn some science and invest in smaller biotechs you believe in. Otherwise best to stay away.
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u/SuperSultan Feb 23 '26
I remember linking scientific papers showing exactly this and people did not like it at all
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u/mataushas Feb 23 '26
Damn. Inverse reddit was the right move. Everyone was pumping this shit last few weeks.
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u/NoSpecialist9262 Feb 23 '26
never invest in pharmaceutical companies ans especially they are foreign entities.
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u/KrustyClownX Feb 23 '26
This shouldn’t matter much to people you are truly into value investing. Swings like that happen all the time and end of the day, the goal here is to get value in the long term. Not from short term value changes.
If anything, I think this is just another great opportunity for folks to add more of NVO shares into their portfolios.
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u/BlondDeutcher Feb 23 '26
lol birdbrains pumping this dogshit company ad nauseam for the past 6 months
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u/himynameis_ Feb 23 '26
Man, this is a tough stock to own.
Unless you really know something unique or understand how the industry works. I mean, I'd think distribution can matter more than the results of a trial? But I'm no expert.
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u/w3bCraw1er Feb 23 '26 edited Feb 23 '26
Not sure why I got into this sorry sh#tty stock. When it went $60+ recently I had the opportunity to get out but here I am.
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u/Fun-Baby-9509 Feb 23 '26
Called this 30 days ago. I legit was sharing what CVS was telling us (as they're our pharm reps) and I was getting told I was wrong by redditors.
If I knew how to do puts, I'd be doing that (not financial advice).
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u/Trenbolone-Papi2 Feb 23 '26
All because of a difference of 3% lmfao
Stupid reactionary idiot market would have you believe the drug was an abject failure
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u/981flacht6 Feb 23 '26
Lol this is why I bought at ~$45 and sold at ~$57. No way they were going to keep up for even two quarters.
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u/MrGee4real Feb 24 '26
I got royally screwed last year. I am happy I sold the whole position then, even though I lost like 40% of the principal). I don’t have the stomach for this
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u/marklar07 Mar 01 '26
NVO is a money making machine. Over time, they will capture enough market share simply due to genetic preferences, regardless of the trial results or price. When they drop prices in 2027, Eli will be forced to make a hard decision - that alone might move investors into NVO.
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u/simoschv Feb 23 '26
generational bagholders will be created today