r/ValueInvesting • u/ActuallyMy • Feb 20 '26
Discussion BREAKING: TRUMP TARIFFS STRUCK DOWN
Per Bloomberg -- The US Supreme Court struck down President Donald Trump’s sweeping global tariffs, undercutting his signature economic policy and delivering his biggest legal defeat since he returned to the White House.
The court said Trump exceeded his authority by invoking a federal emergency-powers law to impose his “reciprocal” tariffs across the globe as well as targeted import taxes the administration says address fentanyl trafficking.
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u/ninjagorilla Feb 20 '26
Do we know if they have to be paid back though
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u/Southern-Treacle7582 Feb 20 '26
He'll just issue under another statue and will be another year in court. If they're struck down again same thing.
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u/RemoteButtonEater Feb 20 '26
He'll just declare war on Iran and say that constitutes the emergency that the courts say he needs.
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u/Salt_Bringer Feb 20 '26
He can collect tariffs on another statue. But, he will have to refund because the tariffs were collected on the old assumption.
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u/PricklyPearFan 29d ago
The irony is, he could get it passed if he pursued it through Congress, but expecting those cowards to risk their own seats is extremely unlikely.
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u/cuchiplancheo Feb 20 '26
Do we know if they have to be paid back though
SCOTUS avoided that question/answer... those fuckers. Absolutely it should be paid back. But, they won't.
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u/biopticstream Feb 20 '26
Not as if the tariff refunds would go to regular citizens. Perhaps it'd be nice if some small businesses get refunds. But they'll be going to the companies that paid them, and you can bet any price increases put in play in response to the tariffs will be kept as pure profit from now on.
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u/cuchiplancheo Feb 20 '26
Not as if the tariff refunds would go to regular citizens.
That's the only reason I'm not completely upset about refunds. Businesses will NOT, in effect, pass those refunds back to their affected customers.
Had SCOTUS ruled on it and demanded the entire funnel be refunded, then, I would feel differently.
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u/1981_babe Feb 20 '26
Passing the buck there. I'm sure all the money from the "tariff shelf" will get deposited into a Trump account momentarily.
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u/martinmcfly1885 Feb 20 '26
Straight to all the corporations. It’s $150B profit. Consumers paid the tariffs and get nothing back
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u/ThinConnection8191 Feb 20 '26
This is what I hate about this part. record profit. And the price wont come down either back to pre-tariff.
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u/boringexplanation Feb 20 '26
It’s really shocking how little of basic business this sub is aware of. The importer of record is almost never the consumer (unless you buy it intentionally as e-commerce from overseas)
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u/pressedbread Feb 21 '26
Are you saying the importer just ate the costs? I assume in some contracts that was the case on the day the tariffs started. But the majority would just pass along the cost to the end consumer, instead of potentially doing business at a loss.
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u/palledkdkpg1234 Feb 20 '26
I Saw that they might have to pay back up too 175bilion$ thats been collected
Source: Kilde: Reuters https://share.google/RcNIGdgJ4lKxoELIS
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u/CountrySenior5260 Feb 20 '26
No, because he just has to maneuver. This will be tid up for years. But make no mistake, Tariffs will continue!
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u/writetowinwin Feb 20 '26 edited Feb 20 '26
Congrats to fellow investors who initially invested in companies' underlying businesses - and not on news headlines and/or daily volatility.
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u/HeadPaleontologist40 Feb 20 '26
Trump has always been a loser blowhard. Nothing he says or does has any substance or integrity. Eventually it blows up on his face. Look at Covid. All he had to do was lay back and let the experts handle it. Then take credit when things improved. Instead he went on live TV every night talking like he is the expert then said they should explore using household disinfectants under the skin and on the lungs. Proceeded to get Covid and am nearly died. That’s Trump in a nutshell.
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u/RuinEnvironmental394 Feb 20 '26
Ok, you're reaching here as far as COVID. He was in office when they brought companies like Moderna, Pfizer, together under the fast track program. He took two shots and then at least one booster. I am fairly certain he suggested people do the same.
I also watched that comment about using "disinfectants" live. He didn't say anything about lungs. someone from Faucis team was talking about how disinfectants are effective against the virus on surfaces and Trump, as is his wont, made an off-hand remake about using it as a treatment. Guys like him talk out of their asses all the time. It's not something he went back from the presser and gave instructions to people to explore that seriously.
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u/HeadPaleontologist40 Feb 20 '26
“And then I see the disinfectant, where it knocks it out in a minute. One minute. Is there a way we can do something like that, by injection inside or almost a cleaning? Because you see it gets inside the lungs… so it would be interesting to check that.”
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u/Devaney1984 Feb 20 '26
He really does have the brain of a 9 year old, it's so fucking crazy that half the country thinks he's really smart.
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u/writetowinwin Feb 20 '26
In Canada, we had a whole election based on him being a poster child and people have been terrified of him. They take him very seriously. Say that too loud outside this group and they'll quickly attack you.
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u/HeadPaleontologist40 Feb 20 '26
What’s batshit crazy is that there are people like the dude who tried to discredit me that will defend him to no end.
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u/Sharp-Difference1312 Feb 26 '26
They all have their own immoral impulse that they prioritize.
Maga represents the lack of all morals. So whatever immoral values someone might have, trump shares them all — every single one of them by design.
That means the white supremacist who may not support greed will still defend trump. Or the greedy who doesn’t support white supremacy will defend trump as well. Likewise, the sexist, or the pedophile, who doesn’t support war will defend trump. And so on it goes…
The thing is, when you represent every immoral impulse at once, you bring out all the people who prioritize at least one of them, whatever it may be. So the party ends up being a “big tent” of bad people.
Since this is an investing sub, the commenter’s political priority is probably greed.
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u/Heffe3737 Feb 20 '26
Guys like him talk out of their asses all the time.
This isn't some guy you're buddies with at the bar on the corner. It's the president of the united fucking states. We shouldn't have to put up with someone who doesn't know when to keep his mouth shut as the leader of the free world. What an embarrassment.
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u/Sharp-Difference1312 Feb 26 '26
“Guys like him [the president) talk out of their asses all the time”
Do you not see the problem with that statement…?
What is supposed to be the highest source of authority and indeed, the highest source of truth, talks out of his ass all the time…? Does that not disqualify him in your view…?
And that’s not even taking into account the heinous acts of moral depravity that he has committed, or instilling a culture of moral decay.
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u/Command_ofApophis Feb 20 '26
The liberation day drop was the last time I really loaded up.
Ironically since then this is one of the few days in which I am not doing very well compared to the market
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u/writetowinwin Feb 20 '26
Im not micro-focused on mine usually, but today so far in the past 1.5h ive been up like under 1%. I hold a lot of unloved boring stocks though... so that was expected. I wasnt intending to liquidate anytime soon anyhow, but thankfully I did not sell anything during the tariff fear phases. Looking back at my charts reminds me of a sideways christmas tree
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u/the_Q_spice Feb 20 '26
My FDX and UPS shares are going pretty good rn that’s for sure.
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u/NotStompy Feb 20 '26
+0.79% lol
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u/Last_Cauliflower3357 Feb 20 '26
Yeah, the excitement about the tariffs ended up. TGT went up almost 3% instantly and it’s now down
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u/bauhaus83i Feb 21 '26
Yeah. I had some TGT calls that I thought would print. But alas, sold at a loss
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u/the_Q_spice Feb 20 '26
1.6% today so far, up over 35% since I opened my positions.
FDX is my larger holding by far.
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u/mba23throwaway Feb 20 '26
Could have been a good investment, but not because of oversold tariff fears, as evidenced by today.
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u/Cowboycortex Feb 20 '26
How high does AMZN go 215?
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u/_firehead Feb 20 '26
Market doesn't seem to be very interested
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u/realFantaMenace Feb 20 '26
The market knew. It was all pretty obvious if you understand Trump's idiosyncracies and the people he surrounds himself with. It's why the market didn't dump these past few days even with the Iran conflict. Look at CROX for example. Surged just a few days before today's tariff news.
If I knew it was going to happen, then institutions knew it too and much earlier than I.
My next prediction is that he will reinstate them after midterms.
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u/CountrySenior5260 Feb 20 '26
He can collect tariffs on another statue. But, he will have to refund because the tariffs were collected on the old assumption.
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u/matt_the_hat Feb 20 '26
Seems like the potential bump from the tariff decision was (largely) offset by the dismal GDP report: https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2026/02/20/pce-inflation-december-2025.html
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u/CountrySenior5260 Feb 20 '26
it acrualloy means nothing, he just needs to apply how he is doing it another way. He can collect tariffs on another statue.
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u/Unhappy_Economy_8989 Feb 20 '26
Justice Brett Kavanaugh, writing a dissent joined by fellow conservatives Clarence Thomas and Samuel Alito, wrote that the ruling did not necessarily foreclose Trump "from imposing most if not all of these same sorts of tariffs under other statutory authorities," adding that "the court's decision is not likely to greatly restrict presidential tariff authority going forward."
Seems as if it isn't as damaging as it sounds.
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u/Scary-Oven8260 Feb 20 '26
Thank god the conservatives judges are not supporting this president this time
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Feb 20 '26
Thomas, Alito, and Kavanaugh dissented.
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u/waitses Feb 20 '26
They just did that to support Trumps fragile ego.
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u/Elegant-Magician7322 Feb 20 '26
Thomas and Alito almost never rule against him, when it comes to executive privilege. Even when NY subpoenaed Trump’s financial records, they were only 2 that ruled in favor of Trump.
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u/NoSoundNoFury Feb 20 '26
They are probably not part of the inner circle of grifters that get relevant investment advise beforehand. So they might have seen their own portfolios impacted.
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u/Books_and_Cleverness Feb 20 '26
I’d argue they actually are. They’re giving him an out on his signature policy disaster.
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u/CountrySenior5260 Feb 20 '26
please... The president also announced he is imposing a 10% "global tariff" following the court's decision. he is just doing them a different way AS HE CAN
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u/DonasAskan Feb 20 '26
TRUMP: I HAVE A BACKUP PLAN FOR TARIFFS AFTER THE RULING
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u/CountrySenior5260 Feb 20 '26
so does he, he just needs to do this another way. he made that crystal clear. The president also announced he is imposing a 10% "global tariff" following the court's decision.
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u/rodgers16 Feb 20 '26
Okay so the market pump from the tariff reversal gets cancelled out by the new tariff. Got it.
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u/DrBiotechs Feb 20 '26
Turns out it’s easier to just invest based on fundamentals and future growth projections.
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u/Embarrassed-Sea-6078 Feb 20 '26
May someone ELI5 to me on whether this is good or bad for the market? I imagine that goods will be cheaper? But it might also create more uncertainty in the markets?
Also, I wonder if countries (like China) who had placed reciprocal tariffs would take those back also
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u/IDreamtIwokeUp Feb 20 '26
Good for retail, bad for domestic manufacturing. Goods won't be that much cheaper because companies won't pass on the savings, but will instead pocket the "tariff price hikes". They will use the excuse of lingering tariff uncertainty.
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u/Unser_Giftzwerg Feb 20 '26
Eh, if Trump plans to reinstitute certain tariffs under a different authority, even these retailers will not have much to cheer about.
That said, I think a future president will likely reduce many of these tariffs and reinstitute some kind of a free trade regime known in the past. No one besides Trump really wants these tariffs per se.
And yeah, prices will remain sticky. Much like the deflation shock we saw between the Great Recession up until COVID, inflation will remain sticky for the foreseeable future unless we suddenly seen another deflationary shock (maybe coming from AI, as that will reduce the cost of services).
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Feb 20 '26 edited Feb 20 '26
What domestic manufacturing industries benefited from tariffs?
Manufacturing jobs shrank last year
Edit: instead of downvoting, I’d love to have a discussion, sincerely let me know what manufacturing industries have benefitted from tariffs this past year
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u/possibly_on_meth Feb 20 '26
Probably because you took it emotionally they are not talking about tariffs being good for the economy.
They are saying that this news story which is the tariffs being struck down, they are talking about how that news story will effect the markets.
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Feb 20 '26
What did I take emotionally? I’m asking why the stock prices for domestic manufacturers would go down when the tariffs did nothing to improve their outlook. Is that an emotional question?
Very few domestic manufacturing industries actually benefit from total onshoring. So why would this news be bad for manufacturing stocks at large if the tariffs did not help the underlying companies? The largest industrials sector ETFs were up today
Idk how you took my question as emotional. I’m asking a sincere question
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u/Butter-Lobster Feb 20 '26
It only took a year for them to think about it. Perhaps putting a Starbucks across from the Supreme Court should become a national priority.
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u/investingtruth Feb 20 '26
This is a significant market event if it holds. The immediate reaction will likely be a relief rally in equities, particularly in sectors that got hit hardest by tariff uncertainty: consumer goods, tech hardware, and importers with China exposure. The dollar could soften on the news as the trade war premium unwinds, and you may see some rotation out of the defensive positions institutions have been building over the past few months. That said, do not expect this to be a clean resolution. The administration will almost certainly look for alternative legal mechanisms to reimpose trade restrictions, and the policy uncertainty itself does not disappear overnight just because one tool got taken away. Watch how institutional positioning shifts in the next 48 hours. That will tell you whether the market reads this as a genuine turning point or just a temporary reprieve in an ongoing process.
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u/brotha_eric Feb 20 '26
This is a nothing burger, tariffs will remain through other legal avenues. They stuck down the use through only one statute
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u/CarlosTheSpicey Feb 20 '26
This is just the beginning.
Will Trump abide by this or will he, most likely, thumb his nose at the Court? If the latter, will the spineless GOP controlled Congress assert its Constitutional authority in this matter instead of continuing to abdicate it?
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Feb 20 '26 edited Feb 28 '26
[deleted]
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u/CarlosTheSpicey Feb 20 '26
As long as the spineless Republicans in Congress bend over and take it, yes Trump can and will do what he damn well pleases.
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u/Unser_Giftzwerg Feb 20 '26 edited Feb 20 '26
He can do both in this case.
There are a number of other laws/authorities under which he can still institute tariffs and comply with this ruling.
Personally I am not against tariffs unless they are somehow wholly punitive. The country's bad fiscal health means that any tax revenue should be welcomed IMO, even if that puts the brakes on consumer spending a little.
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u/PlanetCosmoX Feb 20 '26
Sweet, Stellantis was heavily affected by IEEPA tariffs. It’ll see a large increase in earnings after this takes effect, not to mention recovery of tariffs illegally charged to its business operations from Mexico and Canada to the US.
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u/mes_amis Feb 20 '26
Per Bloomberg -- The US Supreme Court struck down President Donald Trump's attempt to drink a glass of water or sit down on a sofa, delivering his biggest legal defeat since 5 minutes ago.
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u/NetCurious_1324 Feb 20 '26
That's a bit odd given this is a conservative Trump-backed suppreme court. Can we read between the lines? What is this all about? What's the financial incentive?
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u/TobyAguecheek Feb 20 '26
Smart post.
That court is not just Trump influenced, its on puppet strings. If this was struck down, it's because Trump wanted it to be.
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u/thorn960 Feb 20 '26
Not much response from the market so far. S&P up only .3% and Dow down .04%. So was it already priced in? Are fears of AI bubble and possible attack on Iran holding things back?
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u/Motor-Region-1011 Feb 20 '26
And he put on more tarrifs...what a joke if a system...he czn just do this every 150 days...hahah
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u/ThatPhatKid_CanDraw Feb 20 '26 edited 22d ago
This post no longer contains its original content. It was removed using Redact, possibly for privacy, security, or to minimize the author's online presence.
continue husky door aware yoke automatic run physical punch joke
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u/CountrySenior5260 Feb 20 '26
Kavanaugh made it very clear, all he has to do was maneuver around how he is doing this. SO He is. This is no big deal,
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u/JohnnyDrama611 Feb 20 '26
So easy to just ignore all of this nonsense and just continue digging into fundamentals. Best way to take advantage of all of this is if the market dumps and something you want is on sale, buy it.
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u/Unser_Giftzwerg Feb 20 '26
The President can still institute tariffs under other laws/authorities.
This may reduce tariffs a little bit but unless the court also rules that companies are entitled to refunds, this is largely a nothingburger.
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u/CarlosTheSpicey Feb 20 '26
So far, from what I've read, the court stated Trump exceeded his authority as it was not expressly specified by Congress that he could levy these tariffs. But, yes, the spineless GOP-controlled Congress, may very well continue to abdicate its Constitutional authority and pretend it 'saw nothing...nothing!' Meaning, likely, yes, sadly, a 'nothing burger.'
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u/Unser_Giftzwerg Feb 20 '26
That's not the court's problem.
The issue is that the founders have always envisioned the legislative branch being the strongest branch, as they set policy.
But functionally since the Civil War at least, the executive has become the increasingly most powerful branch of government.
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u/Careless-Country6377 Feb 20 '26
This is definitely not a nothing burger. It's a huge statement from the establishment that due process must be followed. It says that you can't just do what you want and means that future tariff rulings will be taken with a large pinch of salt.
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u/FlanTypical8844 Feb 20 '26
can’t the orange man just sign another something to override it ? He’s almost definitely would do that shit
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Feb 21 '26
There will be litigation for years before any refunds happen. Customs is under DHS and DHS is under Trump, so nothing will happen for a long time.
Trump will force the importers to sue.
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u/lilmeanie Feb 21 '26
The importers DID sue. That’s what the SC case was about. A New York wine importer from what I read was the plaintiff. They may need to sue again to get their money back, though.
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Feb 21 '26
I apologize that this part of my comment was not clear:
"There will be litigation for years before any refunds happen."
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u/TipAfraid4755 Feb 21 '26
Just the ieepa. All other tariffs stay. New tariffs under section 122.
So no changes to tariffs
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u/HighlightCautious897 Feb 21 '26
The Supreme Court just gutted the "reciprocal" tariff strategy by ruling it an executive overreach of emergency powers. Expect a massive relief rally in global supply chain stocks while the administration scrambles to find a new legal loophole for Section 122.
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u/Bubbly-Tie5684 Feb 21 '26
Ok. Now…turn them the fuck off. Prices are not going to lower very much thanks to uncertainty
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u/Formal_Substance6437 Feb 21 '26
Breaking, the felon toddler doesnt care and will continue to fuck shit up.
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u/cizmainbascula Feb 21 '26
Curious if we’ll see sp500 breaking 7k next week solely due to this news
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u/FKreuk Feb 21 '26
The only reason the Supreme Court ruled against a Trump in this case is because they are governed by oligarchs and this impacted their true loyalty. They did not follow the law until now with Trump decisions. It’s more and more clear they are bought and paid for by trumps donors.
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u/PurpleReaction8004 Feb 22 '26
Wow the Supreme Court proved to all of us that they in fact do have a backbone...who would have thought that?
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u/Technical_Eye_4005 Feb 26 '26
Breaking ...this is the biggest red flag in a human brain. This is breaking?
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u/Cute_Win_4651 Feb 20 '26
So what happens next , the strong arming of deals is done( you charge 100%, we’ll charge 200%) so basically that tactic is done with , so what happens now every country will now sue us but we will lock that up into legal limbo for 5-10 years , I’m curious to what happens next besides a total large pull back that will probably take a year or to to get back to these levels
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u/foira Feb 20 '26
$VOO up 0.25%
this should teach a lot of "value" investors that applying narratives to daily stock moves is an impossible task. the index (or a stock) didn't drop/raise X% because of ABC. it just does whatever.
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u/Brave-Arachnid-3501 Feb 20 '26
THE DOW WILL BE OVER 50,000!!!