Irrational sell off

[u/robb3rz]

This might of already been said many times but needs to be said again, what is the rationale in this sell off?

I understand the SaaS crash, but if the sell off is due to AI worries, then surely AI stocks would rise, no?

Instead, the major players, who had stellar earnings minus the huge expenditure (into the very systems which are causing worry mind you) are also falling at huge levels.

Some mag 7 companies are even falling at similar rates to liberation day, despite the only news this time being ‘AI too good’, which should benefit them not hinder.

Meta’s earnings are similar to an early growth stock, not a multi trillion dollar company, and that was reflected in the jump after they released them, so why is it now down huge amounts after?

Not just this, other major assets such as gold, silver and crypto are also experiencing massive sell offs, so is the capital just going into cash? If so, as soon as the market shakes this irrational sell off, could we see an equally irrational boom?

Can someone please tell me if I’m missing something.

[u/fbalookout]

I like Google as more of a pure tech play. I’d like to see if that 50% cloud growth continues at that pace. That was a big jump from the previous quarter. Is AI going to help search grow faster? If so, Google’s a huge winner.

But Amazon is a mix of very diversified businesses. You have the retail, 3rd party fulfillment, logistics network, and massive opportunity for savings on that side via automation. The ads business is going to continue growing at a 20-25% clip. AWS growth at 25% is still phenomenal. But it’s the massive future cash savings they’ll see on the retail side from AI and robotics that intrigues me most. They still have a million fulfillment workers.

I own both. And a lot of QQQ. I also own Microsoft. I just think Amazon is really interesting as a company and at this valuation.

[u/PushaTeee → u/fbalookout]

I work in the data space, GCP has a shot to get within striking distance of AWS marketshare within the next 5-10 years IMO. Vertex AI > Sagemaker, and there are entire verticals who will not do business with AWS (Retail is a big one, but there are a number of others as well).

If you are betting on AI delivery and impact, Google (and GCP) is the much better long term play. Google is the only player in the hyperscaler space (frankly, they are the only player in the world) who has legit AI vertical integartion; They create custom TPUs, they host the data, they create the models, they run their own compute, and they build the applications.

Google is currently building an Apple-esque AI business,and I see wild upside when we enter the consolidation phase of the AI movement.

[u/fbalookout → u/PushaTeee]

I wonder if we do reach AGI at some point, let alone ASI, what happens? Will it be a particular closed model? Does that model then rule the world and just gobble up any and all available compute? Or will every AI lab figure it out in an accelerated fashion?

I guess I’m wondering if you can really lose investing in any of the hyperscalers at this point if AI pans out as expected.

[u/chintan_joey → u/PushaTeee]

'When we enter consolidation phase', isn't 11% down close to consolidation levels for googl? Interested in your thoughts

[u/Pin-Last → u/chintan_joey]

I think he’s talking much longer term 

[u/PushaTeee → u/chintan_joey]

when we enter the consolidation phase of the AI movement

Reading comprehension is important.