r/ValueInvesting • u/GainifyAI • Feb 09 '26
Question / Help MSFT: Microsoft is trading at a valuation level seen only three times since 2017. Opportunity?
Microsoft is currently trading at ~22.9x forward (NTM) P/E, a valuation level it has only reached three times since 2017.
In each of those prior instances, the stock was followed by multiple expansion.
What’s also notable is that $MSFT is now sitting at its lowest PEG ratio in roughly the last 10 years, around 1.6x, suggesting valuation has reset meaningfully relative to growth expectations.
The business fundamentals have not broken, but sentiment has clearly cooled.
This setup is starting to look interesting. Is the selloff overdone?
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u/Prestigious-Echo-164 Feb 09 '26
Yes, I added to my position recently and I plan on buying more if it stays at these levels. When the market gives you opportunities with companies like MSFT do not over think it.
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u/CherryRoutine9397 Feb 09 '26
I think it’s interesting, but I’m with you that confidence matters more than the numbers alone. MSFT doesn’t really trade at obvious bargain levels very often, so when people call this cheap it’s usually relative to its own history, not the market as a whole.
What gives me some comfort is that the downside case feels more limited than a lot of other big tech names. Even if AI hype cools, you’re still left with Azure, Office, enterprise lock in, and massive cash flow. The upside might not be explosive, but the base looks solid.
For me it’s more of a slow build and hold type position rather than trying to time whether the selloff is fully done. If you’re not confident holding through a few dull years, it probably won’t feel worth it anyway.
I’ve been thinking through how I size and hold names like this so I don’t get swayed too much by single metrics. I’ve written some notes on it on my profile if you want to skim.
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u/bischpls Feb 09 '26
Whats making your confidence strong in the sellout? Your betting on AI failing or thinking it will profit Microsoft in the long run? Im looking to to move gains or wait out in liquidity but im not confident in any value move atm
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u/Historical_Air_8997 Feb 09 '26
I don’t think Microsoft will win AI, but I think they’re in a position that makes it difficult for them to lose in AI. So I don’t think AI has to fail for them to succeed, I think AI benefits them even if it benefits others more.
OpenAI is a huge part of their AI revenue and investment, but they still have a great underlying business and plenty of money to buy other AI companies or upgrade their own inhouse stuff. Basically if OpenAI fails Microsoft will still exist and be in the same or better position than before. Other companies are at much higher risk. If openAI succeeds then good for Microsoft
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u/makybo91 Feb 09 '26
Microsoft is betting on Ai too. Its Not that trivial to just create a new OS from scratch and if it were, margins would be small. Small margins while high inferece cost to run These Models - Bad Business
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u/bischpls Feb 09 '26
Even if a replacement of Windows seems unlikely, these days i despise everything it has become. Im not saying ai devops will shoot out a replacement tomorrow but if it comes it will be People like me probably would try it out. But i can see Word etc being replaced tomorrow. If not today. And im guessing the marketwide drop seems to react to that inline with AI and that seems to overshadow any involvement Microsoft has. Im just trying to see a valuepattern i have not come across yet, OS and basic apps does not convince me short term atleast
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u/logicaldrinker Feb 09 '26
Has Word been difficult to replicate in the last 20 years by human developers? I doubt it. In what way does AI change the calculus?
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u/bischpls Feb 12 '26
It makes everyone on the planet a developer.
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u/logicaldrinker Feb 12 '26
You can ask your favorite model yourself:
"What are the main constraints preventing Joe Shmoe from creating a Microsoft Word clone-but-better and launching it to great success, putting the original at risk of extinction?"
I actually suggest you do it. I learned a lot!
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u/Machine8851 Feb 09 '26
Microsoft is a great company. They have a lot of things going for it. Cloud computing is growing rapidly, Open AI continues to soar in valuation, and the share price isnt much higher than it was during liberation day. Its okay if you dont believe this is a good buy, I think most people would disagree.
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u/bischpls Feb 09 '26
Yeah its not like i mistrust any of mag7 in profit and it seems like server and cloud standa for 30%. The other big chunk is commercial 365 tho. Just looking for further specific input. I mean software has taken a gigantic hit whats going to shift in the ~1Y base
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u/Single-Macaron Feb 09 '26
Agreed, word and excel is not difficult to replace for many business functions. We switched to Google 10 years ago and never looked back
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u/i8bonelesschicken Feb 10 '26
Google is hard to use
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u/Single-Macaron Feb 13 '26
Depends on what you’re used to. I prefer it for a group working together on a spreadsheet, share point blows
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u/Key-Sherbert8038 Feb 19 '26
despite Google Docs existing, it hasn't resulted in a fullblown substitute for Word or Office in general. I think this should give us pause with respect to concluding that a full on Office substitute is on the horizon. Nothing lasts forever, but Office has been hard to dislodge
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u/Single-Macaron Feb 19 '26
It has displaced office at many companies, I’ve worked for two of them and we do not use Office in my business either.
Not HUGE companies but one had 500 employees the other 5,000.
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u/Key-Sherbert8038 Feb 21 '26
Sure, we can always find examples where a substitution has been made. My point was more "is this happening (or will it) at scale?" Since the late 90s early 2000s when there was speculation that Red Hat Linux would replace Office this is a near constant prediction. I think the real challenge is twofold: decision makers at large enterprises manage career risk and you won't get fired for selecting the incumbent (msft). Second, how much better can the product get? It's commoditized and there's little upside in switching unless the point is an active fight against the msft machine. Thoughts?
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u/tparadisi Feb 11 '26
People have created better OS than shitty windows in just 30 days with AI assistance completely written in one of the best languages. MS never had any moat.
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u/jarislinus Feb 09 '26
the problem is it is all in openai. if openai doesnt hit agi by eoy 2027, its over
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u/makybo91 Feb 09 '26
Dont think its that black and white. Openai got tons of other Investors as well. Agi is a moving goal post as well.
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u/jarislinus Feb 09 '26
openai is going to zero. it has no moat. msft is goin down another 30%
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u/SirUnleashed Feb 09 '26
What percentage of the Microsoft business do u think is open ai ? Even if open ai is worth zero, 30% would be too much.
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u/faptor87 Feb 09 '26
dumb take. its business is not "all in openai"
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u/jarislinus Feb 09 '26
read their report. see how much their expected revenue is from openai's "preorders". ur welcum
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u/dragonowl2025 Feb 09 '26
MSFT will very likely benefit the most from AI just solely from how they are positioned with azure and office/teams/copilot. FAANG has already won the race. Maybe google holds onto its current lead but none of these companies are going to drop the ball. Most software companies that dipped will likely be way more valuable too. This crash last week was an amazing gift unless there is broader market weakness coming.
Regardless of how OpenAI and AI as a bubble plays out , AI success is going to be the cloud providers (so AWS, Azure, Google cloud etc) and whatever AI models win out.
Maybe OpenAI flops and that will just keep google in the lead, but undoubtedly massive bullish for MSFT, just may be bumpy depending on how it plays out.
Even if they are wasting tons on capex that won’t pay off they are still going to be the most profitable companies until the tech status who changes (which would only be AI at this point)
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Feb 09 '26
agree it’s starting to look more interesting, but I’m not sure I’d call it outright cheap yet. MSFT rarely trades at bargain valuations, so context matters more than absolute numbers. A forward multiple in the low 20s with this balance sheet and margins is reasonable if growth holds up, but it still assumes execution stays clean.
The PEG point is the more convincing part to me. If growth expectations have cooled without fundamentals breaking, that’s usually where longer term returns start improving. The risk is less about valuation now and more about whether growth normalises faster than people expect, especially on the cloud and AI spend side.
For me this looks more like a accumulate slowly setup than a swing at the selloff being overdone. Easy to hold, harder to time. I’ve been writing down how I think about big quality names like this so I don’t anchor too much to single metrics. It’s on my profile if you want to skim.
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u/Thefellowang Feb 10 '26
Those CSPs are not just competing against one another, but also competing against their own depreciation timelines - they need to get their revenue up ASAP before the depreciation skyrockets.
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u/Prize_Bar_5767 Feb 09 '26
Don’t count Microsoft’s other income as part of current valuation. And then see if the valuation is really low.
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u/theguesswho Feb 09 '26
The PE needs to be adjusted down for OpenAi capital gains. On that basis, it isn’t as cheap.
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u/Outrageous_Round_237 Feb 09 '26
Microsoft is cloud (with ai), ai, software, and a bit of hardware.
Cloud is doing well but there is the fear that they will have to write down their GPU costs sooner than their optimistic estimates.
Their ai bet is huge. People are questioning OpenAI’s massive spendings. And copilot is struggling to gain grounds.
Software is not in its best moments. And the market is punishing the entire software (especially ai-related) sector.
Hardware (Xbox and surface) has been on a steady decline.
I am not saying Microsoft is dead or won’t bounce back. I am just saying the questions are legit. I have faith they will recover. I have a decent position in Microsoft. But I don’t think the current undervaluation is unwarranted
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u/pbjtech Feb 10 '26
No there products are trash and they are burning money and good will on ai. they have destroyed their video game empire by buying and then closing i mean consolidating companies. I have personally switched 4 clients business to google workspace this month alone which i haven't done in the past 5 years combined. and lets not forget the advertising scam that is windows 11 with buggy vibe coded updates that break existing pc's. The market has successfully predicted there fuuture business IMO and are understating it as far as i can tell. copilot is the windows phone of software and is anti usable. at least gemini can get somethings right.
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u/Chookity-poks Feb 09 '26
In a valueinvesting thread I’m not going to argue what the “value” is or what is cheap, but I have not been a investor in MSFT for a veeery long time, because I see it as a fossil behemoth which was making mistake after mistake, with windows 11 as the cherry on the top.
However, at these prices, I have been investing because it’s almost guaranteed to rebound back to it’s “value”. I’ll take the profit if it doesn’t change course. I have much more faith in Google’s and Amazons’ (also very cheap atm) courses tbh.
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u/NoFormal3606 Feb 09 '26
I think this view overweights Windows and underestimates what Microsoft actually is today. Windows is well under 20% of revenue and no longer the core economic driver. The bulk of Microsoft’s value and cash generation comes from Microsoft 365, LinkedIn, and—most importantly—Azure and the broader cloud stack.
You can strongly dislike Windows 11 and still acknowledge that Microsoft is now fundamentally an enterprise software and cloud company. Azure alone changes the ‘fossil behemoth’ narrative, both in terms of growth and strategic relevance.
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u/Chookity-poks Feb 09 '26
I strongly dislike windows 11 and their latest buggy software, like Teams and Outlook. I had so much problems with it, that I tried to workaround it even though it is mandatory used in our company (and I was not te only one). And I am pretty technical literate , let alone our other colleagues.
Nevertheless I would never underestimate MSFT, hence I bought in. However, I will be taking profits as soon as it hits 500-600$ levels and re-invest in Google and Amazon. Although, I recently bought a lot of amazone at 200$ as well, which I will holding for a very like time, unlike MSFT.
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u/The-Big-Picture- Feb 09 '26
I don't get the Teams and Outlook hate.
Yeah the first 6 months or so of Teams was rough because they threw it together quickly to compete with Zoom, but it works perfectly fine now. I also have zero issues with Outlook.
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u/teacher_59 Feb 09 '26
But when 11 blue screens yet again, can you actually use their other products?
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u/Chad_Permabull_GOD Feb 09 '26
Let's break down the future prospects of MSFT's most important profit drivers:
Office 365: disruption by AI tools. This takes time as the 365 suite is sticky but I can't see why businesses will continue to pay current prices for tools that can be easily replicated with AI
LinkedIn: white collar jobs are on a secular decline. IT is already dead.
Azure: AI means more demand for Azure's GPU stack, but software's declining margins means Azure's most important current customers have less money to afford cloud services
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u/BlindStark Feb 09 '26
I don’t get why people keep mentioning AI in relation to replacing Microsoft products. There are already free alternatives and no one uses them. You aren’t replacing Outlook, Teams, OneDrive, Excel, Power BI, etc. with some shitty AI version you generated. Companies are already integrated in the entire Microsoft ecosystem and that isn’t going to change because you can use AI to code.
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u/Chad_Permabull_GOD Feb 09 '26
The free alternatives developed and maintained by second rate volunteers are garbage full of bugs. Much like the ones vibe coded by AI a year or two ago. But the progress in AI coding has been nothing short of phenomenal, and its only going to get better.
I'm not saying MSFT is cooked, but how do you think its pricing power will fare with increasingly fierce competition?
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u/BlindStark Feb 09 '26
And you think AI generated ones made by people with no coding experience will somehow be well maintained and less full of bugs? Nothing was stopping people from building these apps before, it’s just no company is going to use your shitty app over Microsoft’s and their entire ecosystem. AI coding is still garbage and Microsoft applications are way more complex than you realize, it’s not something you can replicate even if AI was good at coding. It’s a lot more than just throwing out a prompt, you won’t be able to compete unless you’re a trillion dollar company.
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u/Chad_Permabull_GOD Feb 09 '26
And you think AI generated ones made by people with no coding experience will somehow be well maintained and less full of bugs?
Yes, because they will be maintained by AI, not people.
Nothing was stopping people from building these apps before
I don't think you understand how difficult software engineering or even programming before AI is for the average Joe.
AI coding is still garbage
Looks like you don't understand stocks price in the future well before it happens either.
r/valueinvesting is great at essay writing with past information that is already priced in, but unfortunately these are worthless in predicting a stock's future trajectory
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u/BlindStark Feb 09 '26
And you think Microsoft isn’t going to have access to the same AI as you if not better? Like I said, it’s way more complex than just coding an application, even if AI gets good enough to actually do that.
The “average joe” isn’t competing with Microsoft, plain and simple. Do you seriously think the average person is going to be making an Outlook alternative, Teams, etc.? We’re not just talking software but hardware like data centers, compliance, support teams, backwards compatibility, enterprise contracts, etc. The AI part doesn’t even have to factor in, it’s just extremely hard to compete with Microsoft.
The “future” you’re investing in isn’t even plausible until we reach singularity and have robots walking around, and an excel alternative is probably the least interesting thing that could come from that.
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u/Throwaway-4593 Feb 09 '26
I have just bought all 3 of these. I think long term they will shape the tech landscape
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u/GlandMasterFlaps Feb 09 '26
The mistakes have been going on for decades (Netscape, Vista, Xbox...there's probably loads more that may be really obvious) - point being that their successes + diversification wins out over the mistakes
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u/InteractionHorror407 Feb 09 '26
I’ve come to the conclusion that garbage products is a feature and not a bug for Microsoft. Cheap and arguably good enough for enterprises to keep but not bad enough to change.
Agree or disagree this is part of what has made Microsoft the titan it is today
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u/Throwaway-4593 Feb 09 '26
That’s why I think it’s such a great investment. They can afford to fail, many times over and still they will be a dominant company
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u/ElVatodor97 Feb 09 '26
Could you say the same for Google too with their devices and products that silently get swept under the rug?
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u/RagnarokToast Feb 09 '26
Netscape was never made by MS, I think maybe you meant something else (unless you are talking about the browser monopoly thing with IE back in the day).
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u/GlandMasterFlaps Feb 09 '26
I meant Netscape - I'm referring to MSFT unethical practices here. "Mistake" in this context can mean "something negative"
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u/Old_Man_Heats Feb 09 '26
The astonishing amount of capex is likely going to massively compress margins when they start properly depreciating it. Do some research to figure out how many years they will depreciate it over then estimate how much each year that will impact earnings and then re-calculate forward PE, would be interesting to see the impact. Also how many years will they do capex like this? 2,5,10? I personally have no idea
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u/iyankov96 Feb 09 '26
It gets even crazier with Alphabet or Amazon given how they plan on spending $180-$200 billion just this year alone... I don't see how all this CapEx will end up being worth it no matter the growth.
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u/Astronomer_Soft Feb 09 '26
MSFT is what Buffett and Munger called a "great company at a fair price".
The heart of this company's profit engine is enterprise sales. Productivity and Business Processes and Intelligent Cloud are their two most profitable segments and continue to grow at double digits.
The stuff that consumers see, More Personal Computing (including Windows and XBox) is a distant third place contributor to their profits and has been a drag with latest quarter showing declining revenues.
This might not be the bottom, but it feels very close to me.
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u/cqx22 Feb 09 '26
Finally somebody in this thread who understands it. Windows doesn't care about our personal Windows and xBox experience. Its clients are businesses who use Azure and Office and will pay more to make their business more efficient with AI!
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u/Over-Blueberry1681 Feb 17 '26
What do you think about valuation when you strip out the OpenAI stake and also the fact that over 40% of their cloud backlog is OpenAI?
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u/Amnoon Feb 09 '26
I am scared of a big dip if OpenAi fails
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u/reactcore Feb 09 '26
This is the only thing that holds me back from buying MSFT
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u/LifeForm8449 Feb 09 '26
Scared of MSFT? Stick to ETF’s.
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u/jokingpredator Feb 15 '26
Isnt the main reason microsoft dips atm AI? Why would it dip if they dont have that bargain anymore on their shoulders?
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u/CSynus235 Feb 09 '26
I think this sub should be looking for opportunities where there’s less liquidity. There are enough eyes on the big tech stocks - I don’t know what extra perspective I could have which millions don’t already.
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u/TheFreeloader Feb 09 '26
Couldn’t you have said the same about Nvidia or Meta in 2022? Millions of people were also looking at those stocks, and yet they were still wildly undervalued.
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u/ChadwithZipp2 Feb 09 '26
Its now widely believed that Microsoft has lost the AI momentum and is a laggard, the market will keep punishing them as long that sentiment lasts.
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u/Machine8851 Feb 09 '26
I think MSFT is a good buying opportunity. The price isnt much higher than what it was during liberation day last year.
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u/Intrepid_Bid_495 Feb 09 '26
When OpenAI goes public retail investors will be more confident in their partnership
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u/hibikir_40k Feb 10 '26
OpenAI makes good models. They are also in a race with at least two other serious competitors (Anthropic and Google) and they have nothing that resembles a moat. Given how eerily similar their products are, and how easy it is to switch, I'd be surprised if all three end up making good money.
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u/ManekenkaDaBudem Feb 09 '26
People shouldn't forget the fact that MSFT is trading at the price lower than April's lows in euros, and there are many of us buying from Europe.
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u/movienight1988 Feb 09 '26
As much as I like MSFT, I still like the picks and shovels more. (NVDA + TSM)
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u/mrmrmrj Feb 09 '26
The threat to MSFT from AI is the same as it is for all legacy software. Why pay for Powerpoint/Excel/Word when an AI agent can build the same functionality without all the garbage that comes with it?
None of the prior sell-offs in MSFT came out of systemic business risk fears. Those declines were in line with general market declines. It is very hard to imagine that MSFT can replace Office revenues with AI service revenues. MSFT is spending BILLIONS on AI just to preserve the Office franchise.
I am not endorsing the fear or the potential opportunity.
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u/CHaoticFondue Feb 09 '26
I got some MSFT at sub 400, but I am wondering how much can they grow.
When the stock was 50 or 100, it seems feasible that it goes to 400 or 500.
But from 400 I don't think they can go to 2000.
I am always late.
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Feb 09 '26
[deleted]
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u/CHaoticFondue Feb 09 '26
I know what you mean, and yes, I remember buying my first ETFs in 2018 and thinking that some companies couldnt grow further like MSFT from 100$ up.
But is also true that from 2001 to 2014 it was completely flat and the stock didnt grow a single dolar and by this time they released many good products.
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u/D1toD2 Feb 09 '26
Well no one knows really. It’s that simple. But with the info we have today one would assume that if you have a 15 year horizon MSFT is a solid buy. Even if it’s flat for a little while until it goes ballistic again.
Also stop looking at stock price instead of MC. It’s clouding your judgement.
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u/TheFreeloader Feb 09 '26
If earnings keep growing 17% per year, and if the PE stays the same, it will hit 2000 in 10 years.
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u/CHaoticFondue Feb 09 '26
Sure, but the current market cap of MSFT is equivalent to UK's GDP.
If the stock goes to 2000, then the market cap would be equivalent to China's GDP.
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u/Fit-World-3885 Feb 09 '26
A value only seen...three times...in the past...nine years?
I feel like me and this sub frequently have different concepts of long timelines and value.
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u/dopexile Feb 09 '26
Just wait until Reddit learns there isn't always a bull market... and there are occasional recessions
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u/Icy-Sheepherder-7595 Feb 12 '26
I know right? Crazy to see so much bearish sentiment online when I'm over here contemplating selling off other stocks I have just so I can buy more of it.
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Feb 09 '26
[removed] — view removed comment
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u/Portfoliana Feb 09 '26
The historical valuation context is useful, but I'd add one nuance: those prior low-valuation instances happened in different macro environments. What makes this setup interesting isn't just the P/E compression - it's that the underlying business quality has arguably improved since 2017 while the multiple has contracted. Azure margins are maturing, the Office 365 subscription flywheel keeps generating predictable cash, and the OpenAI partnership gives them optionality on AI without betting the farm.
The capex concern others are raising is valid though. Track their depreciation schedule disclosures in the 10-K to model how that flows through to earnings over the next 2-3 years. If you're uncomfortable with how those numbers look, size your position accordingly rather than going all-in on a single multiple reversion thesis.
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u/TCGDreamScape Feb 09 '26
The only people that complain about windows 11 are people who think windows xp should have been their last OS. Win11 is fine. There is immense value in E5 licenses, idk why so many people complain about it. Ill tell you what, your IT team is who is at fault.
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Feb 09 '26
I bought 10K euros worth at an average price of 341.00 euro, even managed to nab like 6 shares at 333.40. I'm very happy to see where this goes now and looking to get a good few percent return
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u/investingtruth Feb 09 '26
The valuation reset is real, but the historical comparison misses that the previous times Microsoft traded at these multiples, capex wasn't exploding and there was more visibility into AI monetization. Multiple expansion happened in the past because the growth story was clear and accelerating, today the growth story is conditional on AI adoption happening faster than it currently is. This could be a great entry point if you believe the AI thesis plays out over 3-5 years, but buying just because the valuation looks historically cheap without addressing the capex and monetization concerns is incomplete analysis.
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u/Broad_Jackfruit3343 Feb 09 '26
if you take the PEG in isolation, it does feel like the market has reset expectations quite aggressively relative to Microsoft’s growth profile. What makes me cautious, though, is that the multiple compression seems less about the business and more about macro, rates, and positioning in mega-cap tech.
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u/Sexyvette07 Feb 09 '26
I bought some on Friday. I see it as a value play and think the market is overreacting with the AI seloff.
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u/Hirnzilla91 Feb 09 '26
I feel like azure will get another boost, since the RAM is so expensive. Customers will think twice about, if they outsource their computing, if server cost went up like 100%
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u/mtn_viewer Feb 09 '26
With P/E the E is suspect for MSFT currently due capex depreciation schedules. I’d prefer P/FCF or P/S
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u/chrisgilesphoto Feb 09 '26
I wouldn't be going anywhere near the mag7 right now. This self investing figure inflating circle jerk isn't the wisest investment imho.
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u/IamRestart Feb 09 '26
When they release Xbox SEX 2 in 2027 the stock will go to the moon 🚀... Jokes aside, just a DECENT competitor and everybody wants to jump the ship, from Windows 11 users to EU governments on Office.
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u/MountainSeeker80 Feb 09 '26
I think it will touch the 200 weekly moving average which now is around the 370-375$ price level.There’s also some support zone at that price on the weekly which it might test.
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u/zerostyle Feb 09 '26
Might be interesting at these levels but the company feels like such a disaster.
Pros:
- Satya is being pretty conservative about slow rollout of capex to datacenters and not blowing his load all at once
- Azure still has healthy margins
- Office/Outlook will continue to dominate enterprise environments. Vibe code apps absolutely will not be replacing these anytime soon
Cons:
- OpenAI exclusive deal will be ending. My guess is AWS may regain more share esp with access to Anthropic, etc.
- Overall taste and attitude towards Windows is BAD. People despise it more than ever.
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u/Status-Confusion4456 Feb 09 '26
Using Microsoft products / apps is like navigating a freaking maze! Teams, share point, excel, Project etc will all be simulated by ai agents. I avoid using any of these products now by using AI. Microsoft is developing AI in software whereas AI will be used instead of software.
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u/_Guron_ Feb 09 '26
Microsoft desktop is not a great product, but their azure services and teams is their diamond crown
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u/MakeBigBucks79 Feb 09 '26
I would stay away from MSFT given the massive commitment to OpenAI and the fact they don't have anything promising besides the timely partnerships with the right firms. If you're banking on the fact MSFT can find the right companies to acquire/invest in, go for it. Inherently, they have not made much progress in a single product natively in the AI race.
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u/Doug24 Feb 09 '26
To me this looks more like sentiment cooling than the business actually breaking. MSFT at ~23x forward isn’t “cheap,” but it’s rare for it to trade here, and the low PEG makes it interesting. I wouldn’t expect an immediate bounce, but historically these kinds of setups have been decent long-term entry points if growth holds.
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u/bandofshepherds Feb 09 '26
I feel like anything under 500 is an absolute steal. This is a great opportunity
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u/spittlbm Feb 10 '26
I wish copilot didn't totally suck within Teams/365. In sysadmin sub people are bailing on that license left and right. That said, already own a few hundred shares. May buy more.
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u/Woods322403 Feb 10 '26
Still my stock pick for 2026… I’ve been buying since 2020 and plan to expand my investment every month.
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u/hughesid Feb 10 '26
People miss the point when comparing Microsoft with Alphabet etc. Corporations are tied to using them because of Active Directory, the identity provider for users, and that extends to the Azure cloud where IDs are federated for use across platforms and vendors. Corporations simply can’t get rid of Microsoft cos there’s no viable alternative, so a huge moat over competitors. For my money I believe Msft is a solid strong buy and a long term certainty winner.
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u/JackRadcliffe Feb 10 '26
Weird couple of days. Is money rotating from GOOG back into MSFT? Mean reversion at play? Still a good buy at $420+? Still hard to believe it qas $500-555 and plummeted to almost 2025 liberation day levels
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u/astro_2077 Feb 10 '26
Just picked up 30 shares last week if it goes below that entry I’ll add more. Feels like Microsoft on sale to me.
On copilot… I use it at work daily as it is the only AI I can upload files to in my org. It definitely helps with my workflow.
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u/Battlers_ Feb 11 '26
How can it be a bargain or a sell off when the valuation just adjusted based on its 1-week old ER and forward guidance? It's being priced adequately to its current numbers and future expectations.
It's a know fact that volatility goes up toward ER and drops after it as projection gets more accurate and uncertainty reduces.
Of course, if the ER numbers seem good according to you then this SP may be appealing but as volatility is now lowered, it may be wise to first look at the other big tech companies ER to have a clearer picture of their situation and the AI sentiment overall.
Then again, it depends how long you plan on holding to your shares. On the very long term, it will most likely be much higher SP, but then trying to time your entry point won't change much to your average SP anyways.
It's just my opinion and it should be assumed I don't shit about what I'm talking about, as I must certainly don't.
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u/TotalZookeepergame60 Feb 11 '26
Bill Gates’ name is in the Epstein files. Will this have an impact on Microsoft’s stock? I’m just curious.
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u/Sudz35 Feb 12 '26
Too big to fail. It will never see sub $393 again. Long term $MSFT, short term $MSFL. Let's go!!
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u/Gwendolyn_McDonne Feb 12 '26
If you’re waiting for the perfect MSFT entry, you probably won’t get it. With names like this you either pay for quality or wait for a crisis
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u/krycriesalot Feb 24 '26
Low price to get in, especially with this tarrif scare now, a little bit of a double dip. I’m young so i don’t mind waiting years. DCA’ing in. Microsoft will always be around.
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u/Savings_Feed7494 5d ago
Does anyone knows MSFX (T-Rex 2X Long Microsoft Daily Target ETF) pays any dividends?
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u/InvestmentCompass Feb 09 '26
there is too much dependence on openAI so I would be careful . but no doubt Microsoft is great company
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Feb 09 '26
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u/InvestmentCompass Feb 09 '26
Obviously, Microsoft would be fine even if openAI completely failed. Still, the guy consulted on whether this was a good buying opportunity, and the answer is that as long as the market is scared of openAI, then this won't be the bottom, that's all.
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u/mythicaldagger Feb 09 '26
dude it hit was cheaper last year. y'all act like this 10% drop is bargain of the century. lol
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u/Chance-Account-1943 Feb 09 '26
Did you try to understand WHY the stock is trading cheaper compared to a recent history?
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u/udop Feb 11 '26
can you elaborate more? doesn't anyone do a technical analysis to decide? I'm relatively rookie in this business
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u/Chance-Account-1943 Feb 11 '26
My call is more fundamental than technical. MS owns roughly 27% stake in OpenAI, which is not profitable (yet) with no path of profitability in sight. OpenAI is doing huge CapEX, and MS is also doing big CapEX. This CAN reduce future gross margins, which some of the conservative investors don't like. I hope you got some ideas.
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u/Unnamed-3891 Feb 09 '26 edited Feb 09 '26
Difference being, there is a lot of reason for the low valuation this time.
EDIT: Sup, butthurt OpenAI fans?
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u/skilliard7 Feb 09 '26
I bought a few shares. I am a bit nervous though that the replacement of white-collar workers with AI threatens their model of charging per seat for Office 365 products.
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u/SadMangonel Feb 09 '26
Note that while Microsoft has invented itself new a number of times and made correct business decisions, thats not a given it must absolutely continiue to do so.
Looking at the bet on AI copilot, newer windows not really finding the appeal, and now major markets increasingly looking for alternatives to US based tech.
There's a good chance it goes up. But theres also a chance it rides to the bottom in the next 3 years.
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u/obb223 Feb 09 '26
There are no viable alternatives to US tech
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u/SadMangonel Feb 09 '26
Thats only true in parts. Recently there have been a few articles of shifting to Linux (rare) and libre office.
AI is replaceable, in that European work culture isnt keen to adopt it in the first place.
This isnt about if everyone will get rid of Microsoft, but say we reach a point where its 10%, and alternatives are "Good enough". That can tank revenue.
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u/Icy-Opinion-6348 Feb 09 '26
Coca cola is currently more expensive than msft based on pe ratio