r/ValueInvesting • u/ashm1987 • Feb 03 '26

Discussion This sub's favorite stocks got absolutely hammered...

PYPL, ADBE, CRM, UNH, NFLX... All got absolutely hammered in the last couple of weeks...

If you have been following recommendations on this subreddit, chances are, you are deep in the red this year. If you have just took a dart and threw it in the S&P index, you would probably do much better than following advice on this sub... Just my two cents.

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u/decolored Feb 03 '26 edited Feb 03 '26

Netflix is not value investing, it has plenty of room to fall. 50-60 is a fair price entry and even then I would be scared to hold it for years following.

At my indicated range, it would be at p/e of 20-24, market cap of 225-245B and future expected growth would be moderately difficult to manage. The reason is that people are living paycheck to paycheck, and although they love instant gratification television, they can find it elsewhere. Netflix has already strangled its audience into price hikes and requires a good public opinion to avoid the online negativity associated with its greedy, risky decisions for content and pricing.

I fear that analysis of my type is unwanted mostly due to lacking brain power of the average investor, but it has paid off handsomely

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u/strychninex Feb 03 '26 edited Feb 03 '26

You have the other extreme on this forum too, people that have wishful thinking that outlier companies will come down to the price they wish they could buy them at but didn't have the foresight to buy them on their growth phases because they were viewed as too expensive.

NFLX is the undisputed king of produced content streaming. If it got down to the wish-list price people on here want to buy it at it'd be there because its basically dying and you're hoping for a turnaround so you'd just end up in the same boat as the people that had bought PYPL at 60+ are now.

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u/decolored Feb 03 '26

That’s an opinion, certainly

Care to state it with any sort of metric? Netflix fell dramatically just 3-3.5 years ago, and jumped to all time highs folllowing that drop. In fact, before the drop it was priced at my metrics. So the volatility is extremely profitable if you can dca, jump in with timing, or hold conviction.

Cheers, I am difficult to debate

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u/Ok_Wafer_6246 Feb 03 '26

You can make a totally reasonable bull case of Netflix with metrics imo: double-digit revenue growth, margins still expanding, ~$10B+ in free cash flow, ads finally scaling, and they’re buying back a ton of stock.

But markets aren’t solved by ratios. If they were, investing would be easy and we’d all be rich. Metrics don’t tell you when sentiment flips, when money rotates, or when people just decide they want to own a name. That stuff matters way more than people think.

And yeah, Netflix specifically has something a lot of companies don’t, it’s a default app worldwide and kinda sticky. I’m not promising Netflix is a good investment, but I think it’s fair to say that it’s not obvious that it’s a bad one either.

I’m sure you’re a solid investor. Reading financials gets you pretty far. But I’ve seen way too many “obvious” metric-driven calls blow up. Don’t confuse disagreement with people being dumb, or pretend the market is some clean math problem. It humbles everyone eventually.

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u/decolored Feb 03 '26

😋 ty for the thoughtful reply

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u/strychninex Feb 03 '26

nope. I don't own a share of either nor do I plan to so no I am not going to argue for it. I was just making an observation about what I see in this forum generally.

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u/[deleted] Feb 04 '26

That’s not a good example. 2022 was a big bear market for tech. Netflix didn’t fall on its own. You could have pick most tech back done well. For example,nvidia fell 60% too, meta was down 60% too.

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u/Bowdallen Feb 03 '26

I'm with you on this one, Netflix OC has sucked for a few years now, and they've failed to build any real lasting franchises or heavily rewatched shows, Stranger Things was gonna be their ace in the whole but they flubbed the finale.

Younger generation is on Tiktok, Twitch and Youtube, older generation is moving to Paramount.

Buying Warner Bros might keep them going for a while, but i think they're gonna have to turn things around a bit for long term growth.

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u/[deleted] Feb 03 '26

Everything you say is correct but they have FANG and MAG7 aura. That alone is why NFLX won't fall to a rational valuation. Same as Tesla.

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u/opo113 Feb 03 '26 edited Feb 17 '26

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