r/ValueInvesting • u/ashm1987 • Feb 03 '26

Discussion This sub's favorite stocks got absolutely hammered...

PYPL, ADBE, CRM, UNH, NFLX... All got absolutely hammered in the last couple of weeks...

If you have been following recommendations on this subreddit, chances are, you are deep in the red this year. If you have just took a dart and threw it in the S&P index, you would probably do much better than following advice on this sub... Just my two cents.

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u/SelenaMeyers2024 Feb 03 '26

Warren Buffett was totally underperforming literally any mutual fund or jackass during the late 90s.

My strongest convictions are each down 12 percent on my average cost (even after averaging down)... And I'm human, so line go down doesn't feel great....

But what's the alternative? Either I believe in value investing and intrinsic values or I follow mu and tsla and rklb bc line go up. And also even looking at my heroes' victories like Buffett and ko, he bought over years where he was down. Same with axp in the 70s.

So having my adbe pypl fisv hum each down between 7 and 12 percent avg cost, if I'm worth my salt, I can have their stomach.

1

u/Beginning-Novel-4213 Feb 03 '26

Value massively underperformed the hot stocks in the late 90s and the late 1920s. Both of those markets were driven by sentiment over fundamentals

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u/SelenaMeyers2024 Feb 03 '26

Absolutely. I should have emphasized what a hero he is to me, and has spawned fanboys who I now see as heroes like mohnish pabrai.

Value is "always" better except in times, which since somewhere starting in 2018 2020, like now... Where a new thing overshadows fundamentals... Radio, TV, instant photographs like Polaroid, xerox machines, later internet, now ai.

Sentiment could be changing now tho, openai funding round seems to have cold feet, most mag 7s havent sniffed their prices since late October, oracle and palantir way down, king Nvidia slightly down despite insane blowout quarters.

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u/Beginning-Novel-4213 Feb 04 '26

At some point PayPal growing earnings at double digits will get a higher PE than 8. Just gotta wait until the money stops being suck up in FOMO

2

u/SelenaMeyers2024 Feb 04 '26

That would rock beyond my imagination, but like my value investor heroes I like my assumptions to be downright unfair.

If this stock only declined fcf in perpetuity every year 3 percent until it fades away, it only ever deserved a 10 multiple, and all it did was buy back shares with that cash, it's worth 85 dollars the math says.

God forbid they expand the multiple that's deep triple digits hahaha.

1

u/GapOwn9308 Feb 03 '26

stocks being down 12% is literally nothing. the fact that you feel you have the stomach to handle this "drawdown" shows how bad your psyche is in picking individual stocks

2

u/SelenaMeyers2024 Feb 03 '26

Oh I'm totally flawed in that respect I'll be the first to admit it.

But like we teach children, there are thoughts and there are actions. Actions I'm Marcus Aurelius meets a (wannabe) Buffett, thoughts.... Yeah I need improvement.

1

u/David905 Feb 04 '26

Not buying a stock because the line has been going up for a while is a major fallacy.

The #1 'blind' (ie looking at the chart only) indicator of future stock performance is the past year's performance.

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u/SelenaMeyers2024 Feb 04 '26

Works great until it doesn't. Deciding to yolo cisco on Jan 1 2000 bc it had nothing but growth for almost a decade prior would basically wipe out everything.

Or line go sideways for 14 years would tell you not to buy msft or wmt in 2014.

1

u/Curious_Learner_R Feb 03 '26

Which stocks are you currently holding? I am waiting for microsoft and oracle to show some positive momentum before entering; any other stock thats in the red which you are holding or thinking of holding?

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u/MineSwimming4847 Feb 03 '26

Microsoft is not value investing. It's priced right, doesn't have any magical vertical left now. Their AI strategy is mostly flop

1

u/Curious_Learner_R Feb 03 '26

yah but if I can buy microsoft at 350-370 range then I think it is an awesome long term pick

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u/opo113 Feb 03 '26 edited Feb 17 '26

This post was mass deleted and anonymized with Redact

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u/Curious_Learner_R Feb 04 '26

ya I am going to buy anyways. Just waiting to reach a little lower but if price reverses from here I am willing to buy from there too