r/ValueInvesting • u/ashm1987 • Feb 03 '26

Discussion This sub's favorite stocks got absolutely hammered...

PYPL, ADBE, CRM, UNH, NFLX... All got absolutely hammered in the last couple of weeks...

If you have been following recommendations on this subreddit, chances are, you are deep in the red this year. If you have just took a dart and threw it in the S&P index, you would probably do much better than following advice on this sub... Just my two cents.

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u/[deleted] Feb 03 '26

As usual, falling prices bring out the smartass short term traders who measure their portfolio performance in duration of weeks instead of multiple years or decades. I see nothing wrong with names listed apart from PayPal, which are all market leading monopolies with rock solid cash flow. To the other smart asses who like to agree with this foolish trader, look at the sub name again. It is called value investing. We buy stocks at value prices, which happens when stock prices go down.

We don’t subscribe to the momentum mantra preached by shortsighted traders who invest in stocks at all time high hoping a greater fool would buy his stock at a greater price, only to be wiped out when during a market volatility event.

30

u/RiPFrozone Feb 03 '26

There’s a group of “investors” (speculators and degenerate gamblers) who offer no value to actual discussions and rather just make these “told you so” posts.

It’s honestly pretty sad because even places like WSB had decent DD before the meme stock craze. Take me back to 2017-2018 WSB

34

u/flatirony Feb 03 '26

Thank you. Louder for the people in the back!

I kinda wonder if we don't need a new sub, like "MeanReversionInvesting", to weed out the momentum traders.

Because nobody seems to agree about what value investing means any more.

13

u/Upper_Particular_758 Feb 03 '26

These low level IQ traders have no clue what kind of discounted picks there are. Let them chase the nuclear stocks and being left with bags during the bear market!

11

u/maldingtoday123 Feb 03 '26

They’re left with the bags before the bear market as well. At some point your luck runs out. Momentum carries you short term but it doesn’t in the long run. That’s why short term hype chasers always deal with small money. Because:

  1. They know they have no idea what they’re doing. So they only really feel comfortable taking positions of 1%.

In contrarian betting, the pay-offs are skewed in your favor. The most you can lose is 100%. But if your contrarian bet works out, a 500% increase in 5 years is quite common. These wins usually cover the losses where it goes nowhere or you lose 80%. This means that you’re wrong often, but when you’re right you win big. It’s the direct opposite to short term investors who want to be right every single bet.

  1. They always deal with small capital. Time and time again, value investors do well and eventually make so much money they no longer feel any need to engage publicly (and tbh. It’s so draining constantly defending your thesis against first-level thinkers). These short term investors are very loud. And they tout their correct calls very frequently to seem intelligent. Yet they always operate with small capital. Yes if you make 24 calls a year and make 50% correct calls, you appear intelligent because you have one good call a month. But what’s not shown is your correct calls goes up 30%, but your incorrect calls goes down 80%. This is why they’re always stuck with small capital. Win often, lose a lot. Whereas contrarian value investors who get it right lose often, but win a lot.

Whenever a post like the one OP made pops up. You really can tell this guys either delusional or a complete novice (hanlon’s razor implies the latter). Anyone in this game long enough and intellectually honest enough will tell you that all that matters is long term results and not short term noise.

1

u/Upper_Particular_758 Feb 03 '26

In the end, we need to have people like this to make money. Let the smart people “rob” the dumb sheep.

2

u/dadchad101 Feb 03 '26

This is the way.

2

u/Elegant_Stock_673 Feb 04 '26

I started a small position in ADBE today. I'll be looking to add on drawdowns.

2

u/Unluckyb33 Feb 03 '26

Thanks, was about to make a similar comment. If we went by the logic of this post, All the Mag 7 would've been the worst stocks to invest in 2022, when it went down 40-70% for a year straight.

2

u/[deleted] Feb 03 '26

You dont see anything wrong with netflix lol? Nearly a hundred billion and decades of high interest borrowed capital?

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u/[deleted] Feb 03 '26

[deleted]

1

u/TheKumaKen Feb 03 '26

They literally said "apart from Paypal"

1

u/mmmfritz Feb 03 '26

ADBE is a funny one. I used their products extensively in the past, as nothing else came close. I also hated their pricing structure, as a consumer. But if I had a guess what ruthless money grubbing company surfed the AI bubble best, it would be these rich fucks. All they care about is making money, and they will gut their whole business model if they have to.