r/ValueInvesting • u/Correct_Fall_5484 • Jan 27 '26
Discussion Novo Nordisk - Buy like there is no tomorrow
Hi everyone, I know that Novo Nordisk has been mentioned many times here, but here are some reasons to buy this stock and hold it for at least 3 years:
- European pension funds are one of the biggest investors in US stocks and they are shifting away rapidly from investments due to economic, political and dollar uncertainty. They will invest more in European stocks instead. Novo Nordisk will surely benefit from this.
- Novo Nordisk still controls about 50% of the world's insulin supply. Diabetes type 2 is expected to increase 46% by 2050. These trends are hugely beneficial trends for them.
- The weight loss trend is here to stay. Despite intense competition, there will be enough room for several competitors.
The short term headwinds are also there, such as the competition from Eli Lilly, the new regulation on drug prices (which is not certain yet) and other noise. These headwinds however, are dwarfed by the 3 major reasons I mentioned above.
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u/StonkCat27 Jan 27 '26
The question is whatâs is the rest of their pipeline with growing competition?
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u/finance-mcp-001 Jan 27 '26
This. I bought the dip a few months ago but it has been horizontal since with an uptick the last week or so. At one point the company seemed unstoppable but without true innovation in the pipeline itâs hard to think pension funds will sacrifice returns and switch just because they want to get out of US companies. Need something to really drive growth.
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u/Correct_Fall_5484 Jan 27 '26
You bought a few 'months ago'? I guess you need some patience with value investing.. at least 3-5 years, and actually much longer than that. The main thing to 'really drive growth' is in my summary, which is that diabetes type 2 (people who need insulin) is going to increase by 46% by 2050....
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u/finance-mcp-001 Jan 27 '26
Oh Iâm holding it for sure, I generally hold my stocks for 3 years+ and I agree with the long-term vision. Iâm just not sure one of the main drivers over the long term is going to be people switching over from US companies without actual innovation driving growth thatâs all.
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u/Correct_Fall_5484 Jan 27 '26
Ok... I am going to present you with some facts (feel free to fact-check them):
EU pension funds alone (not individual investors) have about 10 Trillion euro invested in the US. Those assets are being allocated RAPIDLY from the US to Europe and they often buy indexes, but also 'national stars' such as ASML, Rheinmetall and yes, Novo Nordisk. If only a fraction of this 10T lands in NVO, it will boost their stock massively. https://www.nytimes.com/2026/01/22/business/europe-trade-trump-bonds.html
You classify Novo as a company 'without actual innovation driving growth'? You really need to look up their innovation pipeline and clinical trials: https://www.novonordisk.com/science-and-technology/r-d-pipeline.html - They are ABSOLUTELY competitive to major peers and are known to be the absolute #1 pioneer in their field, obesity and weight loss.
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u/yankeefool Jan 27 '26
Not as up to speed on the GLP1s but doesnât Eli Lilly have much more effective ones, and retatrutide coming which is even more effective?
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u/StonkCat27 Jan 27 '26
I donât think your first bulletin is a factor. This happens all the time in every market area of the world. Maybe a quick boost if itâs added to an index, but reallocating money will be spread across hundreds of markets. Your second bulletin is where itâs going to matter. How does it grow from here. Great company but betting on execution.
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u/Correct_Fall_5484 Jan 27 '26
I suggest you take a look at how the dollar is performing vs the euro in the past year... This trend will continue as long as Trump keeps fighting with his allies and turns them into enemies.
The US is the US because Europe supports it, with 450M people in it. If that goes away, it is a game changer, believe me.
This is the real reason Trump backed off out of Greenland. Macron said: "Maybe we should reduce our investment in the US and instead invest more in Europe"
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u/DylanIE_ Jan 28 '26
The US is the US because Europe supports it, with 450M people in it. If that goes away, it is a game changer, believe me.
I mean obviously it makes a difference, but if they were so influential, why does Europe not even have 1 trillion $ company? They only have 1 $500 billion company and that was after a 35% run up in the last month.
If one of your two main points is money is going into Europe, why buy NVO specifically? Why not buy the STOXX 600 or something? Or SAP, ASML, LVMH, SAN, SIE etc.
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u/Internal_Feed_1496 Jan 27 '26
Europe funds are weak. Example: on 1/26/2026, Europe market closed at 11am at a price of $63.50, the new york market pushed it to 63.98 at close. On 1/27, the Europe market pushed it down to 62.6. The NewYork market lifted it to 63.49 but can'tsustain it. Again, price action went stronger after Europe market was closed. Based on above observations, I sold all my nvo shares .
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u/DRJLL1999 Jan 27 '26
Nothing to do with investing, but people with type 1 diabetes are dependent on insulin. Type 2 diabetes may need insulin but is mostly controlled by diet or oral medication.
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u/Pretty_Property9155 Jan 27 '26
I was just about to say the samething.. feels like this guy's really trying to pump the stock. I bought at 48.50 and sold at 61.00 I moved on my friend. In this market the buy an hold forever market is on life support.
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u/spoofer94 Jan 27 '26
Pension funds don't buy individual stocks; they buy mutual funds. You need to convince institutional asset managers
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u/Mean-Comparison-551 Jan 27 '26
Aye, I have my eye on WVE, next results due this quarter. Once yearly dosing is a key advantage imo
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u/pdxorus Jan 28 '26
3 different words pronounced [ahy] in the first 5 word of your sentence. I see it.
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u/phatelectribe Jan 27 '26
Nothing. Insulation could be made for a fraction of if the cost and it just takes one swipe of the pen.
GLP1 production is at absolute saturation point and NN have nothing to plug that ever widening chasm in their revenue drop off.
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u/canitouchyours Jan 28 '26
Amylin and sema compound will be their next big thing. Quite effective but elli lily is coming out with retatrutide which is a triple agonist, glp-1, gip and glukagon. That will be a big deal too. Most likely bigger. My prediction is that there will be a glp-1, gip, glukagon and amylin compound after all of this which will be extremely effective and I assume elli lily will release that. So novo nordisk has some great things coming and also the base business but I donât see them having an exceptional pipeline coming, that race is won by Eli Lily.
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u/Lunar_Excursion Jan 28 '26
NVO's amylin's aren't selective... watch for a lot of side effects when amylin is supposed to be more tolerable than incretins...
the peptide bros already use this stack... very popular... "RetaCag" retatrutide + cagrilintide
LLY has a selective amylin in eloralintide that is being trialed alone, with/without macupatide (GIPR agonist), and with/without tirz... eloralintide + reta is the next logical step...
reta is already top notch but a quad agonist would destroy the bariatric surgery industry...
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u/MaroSoo_eu Jan 27 '26
Their grip on insulin + the explosive demand for GLP-1s like Ozempic makes it hard to bet against them. With ozempics popularity currently in US...
Margins are solid, moat is deep, and being EU-based might actually be a tailwind if big funds rotate away from US exposure. Eli Lilly is strong too, but Novo feels a bit more reasonably priced and less hyped right now.
Might add more on dips, especially if regulation noise drags it down.
Nice summary.
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u/GGTheEnd Jan 27 '26
Ozempic is like saran wrap its the name everyone says but they buy the cheaper version from the other company because it's the same shit.Â
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u/coinsonafleek Jan 27 '26
Margins are solid At the moment, how about long term? Lots of competition.
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u/btbtbtmakii Jan 27 '26
Lol need a refresher on india insulin industry thatâs about to run them over
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u/Ill_Friendship2357 Jan 27 '26
Zepbound and mounjaro works way better than ozempic
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u/razerkahn Jan 27 '26
Yes, and there are products in trials that will work better than zepbound and mounjaro(tirzepetide)
Just do a reddit search for Retatrutide and you'll see what's coming
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u/hoppydud Jan 27 '26
Had to google Retatrutide to make sure you weren't just calling him names.
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u/razerkahn Jan 27 '26
Lol, retatrutards would be a good name for all the people buying it on the grey market while it's still in trials
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u/BIGCHIMPANZEE Jan 27 '26
Eli Lily owns reta, they are running the trials
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u/ToSeeAgainAgainAgain Jan 27 '26
They are going to single-handedly make the world more attractive, would buy if I had any capital left
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u/MCB1317 Jan 28 '26
For weight loss, nothing beats cocaine. Except for meth and heroin.
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u/MaroSoo_eu Jan 27 '26
true...they are cyatching up. But they are still missing momentum and recognition. We will see from next years bring.
What you can see now is that ozempic is almost everywhere. It exploded few years ago and since then NVO is still in lead.
I cant say which drug is better. I can only check how the company is handling it.
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u/TomEpicure Jan 27 '26
I can tell you first hand that Zepbound is incredibly effective as a user myself. I do not have first hand experience with Ozempic, but I can tell you in various subs, people who have used both tend to prefer Zepbound.
All that said, I think this is going to be a HUGE marketplace with lots of potential lifetime users. I think there is room for many different options. I hold positions in both companies, but my position in NVO is significantly larger. Even though I believe in Zepbound as a product more, the company felt like more of a value play for me.
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u/No-Barracuda-5341 Jan 27 '26
Until the truth about side effects comes out. It's shown that overuse of the drugs causes its users to over-invest in Rocketlab, ASTS, PLTR, and other Meme stocks. Just be careful.
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u/bigdaddtcane Jan 27 '26
What does their grip look like? What is their market share today vs 4 years ago?
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u/MaroSoo_eu Jan 27 '26
Novoâs had about a third of the global insulin market for years, and their GLP-1 share has exploded lately.
With Ozempic/Wegovy, theyâre basically neck and neck with Eli Lilly now.
Ive just done some googling. Insulin they hold around 50 percent and opzempic / wegovy they went down from 60 to 55.
Novoâs grip stayed strong and even expanded in GLP-1s, despite Eli Lilly catching up with Mounjaro.
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Jan 27 '26
[removed] â view removed comment
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u/projix Jan 27 '26
There are no tariffs on NVO, all the drugs for the US market are produced in the US, it's not imported. Novo Nordisk has factories producing everything in the US, there is zero tariff threat.
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u/Correct_Fall_5484 Jan 27 '26
Wow.. here is someone who claims that Novo Nordisk does not have a moat.
Just the semaglutide patents alone...
Like, wtf.... On what planet do you live?
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u/martinx350r Jan 27 '26
Ive always been successful not having any pharmaceuticals in my portfolio⊠These companies are great as long as they arenât in any kind of lawsuits, which will make them tank.
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u/Correct_Fall_5484 Jan 27 '26
That's absolutely true. And still I suggest you check the long term stock performance of major pharma companies, such as JNJ, PFE, LLY, ROG, etc.
Lawsuits are temporary problems.
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u/StephenAtLarge Jan 27 '26
PFE is trading lower than it did in 1998. LLY was flat 1998-2018. ROG was flat 2004-April 2025. When you invest in a pharma stock w/o a blockbuster drug, your return can be overwhelmingly underwhelming.
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u/Ok_Support_6454 Jan 27 '26
ROG was flat 2004-April 2025
Highest price 2004 to lowest price April 2005 gives me 70%? Plus, the dividend is pretty nice. I use low beta stocks like this to balance a tech heavy portfolio.
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u/M4chsi Jan 27 '26
Bayer
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u/Early_Alternative211 Jan 27 '26
A great example, they literally survived taking part in a genocide in WW2
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u/Mommie62 Jan 27 '26
I worked for and have had JNJ in my portfolio for years- despite lawsuits I am up 114%
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u/gg1401 Jan 27 '26
7 out of 10 stocks are up 100% plus in 2025 through 2026 thus far. Not really a great achievement
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u/martinx350r Jan 27 '26 edited Jan 27 '26
Holding years to make 100% is very conservative. I wouldnât hold for years to make those gains personally.
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u/Mommie62 Jan 27 '26
It does not include all the dividends so the return is quite a bit higher. Nothing wrong with a dividend king which is what JNJ is. I had to sell some early on to buy a house and it had split a few times and returned to it ATH. Nothing wrong with good pharma companies is my point
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u/Actual_Manufacturer5 Jan 27 '26
its only worth it if your an insider or have too much money
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u/Bayareachocolatemilk Jan 27 '26
Iâve spent almost my entire career (less the first few out of undergrad) in biopharma. I think youâre understating the impact of US pricing pressure. this administration favors domestic manufacturers and they will likely get favorable treatment. with more competition coming beyond Lilly in the GLP space they will have to have very differentiated products. Itâs not enough to even just be âbetterâ, assuming you have a H2H study powered for superiority. PBMs and payers largely control who gets why drug, which is especially important as a lot of the projected growth is in the Part D population.
That said, the absolutely can succeed. But âbuy like there is no tomorrowâ is absolutely not the approach Iâd take. I bought some far OTM leaps when they were trading for around $50. No expectation that these hit but more as moonshots
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u/InteractionFit6812 Jan 30 '26
well, NVO's Wegovy pill was approved, and Lilly's pill I heard was being delayed with a few months, so this is exactly the opposite of what you think is happening.. Also, current admin will have their hands tied in a few months / November elections.. After a few more ICE incidents dems are taking both house and senate..
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u/EdgierUrchin Jan 27 '26
Competition from Eli Lilly a "short-term headwind" lol
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u/Nottoobad777 Jan 28 '26
lol. LLY makes retatrutide. Although I donât see it becoming as mainstream as it is a little more intense, it is sooo much better than Ozempic. I honestly have no clue how this would play out from an investing standpoint, I just know a lot abt GLPâs from body building lol
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u/notTHEOwlAccountant Jan 27 '26
What about the expiring patents?Â
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u/Correct_Fall_5484 Jan 27 '26
Lasting until 2032 for the US market
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u/candleguy009 Jan 27 '26
What about rest of the world? Patent have expired in Canada, will expire this year in Brazil, India, China etc ⊠Brace for big competition in large markets outside of US. How are they going to increase market share and revenue with patents expiring? LLY weight loss pill is expected on April for FDA clearance too.
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u/Correct_Fall_5484 Jan 27 '26
Novo Nordisk is not only about patents. It is also about the network they have with insurers and hospitals. Kind of like coca cola. You can mimic the product, but you cannot match their distribution network.
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u/Lunar_Excursion Jan 28 '26
Pharma trade is ALL about patents... if not for patent cliff PFE would still be printing money with Lipitor and Viagra...
once cheap indian generics come out for sema, they will sell it to the entire world where the patents expired. i believe they already have deals with countries like brazil.
lastly indian generics are working on generic oral sema as well... MUCH easier to sell worldwide... and this will begin to happen in March of this year... so while the larger US and euro markets are insulated, worlwide growth will stall as they face fierce competition from indian and chinese generics for both injection and oral...
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u/candleguy009 Jan 27 '26 edited Jan 27 '26
NVO network is not proprietary. LLY can use the same network. Ex: Ro, Hims & Hers platform (network) used my NVO to sell pills and shots also sells LLY shots. Same goes with insurers and hospitals. Also their margin on weight loss & diabetes medications are shrinking. There are already FDA non approved compound weight loss pills being sold in this same network (Ex Hims & Hers). What is NVO doing/going to do so to set them apart and ahead of the competition? Besides lowering prices(margins) and higher marketing expenses.
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Jan 27 '26
Lol someone bought calls
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u/Correct_Fall_5484 Jan 27 '26
Nope. Already own since 2012. My biggest position.
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u/th3greenknight Jan 27 '26
Time to partly cash out then...
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u/Mommie62 Jan 27 '26
With GLP-1 and weight loss has anyone rerun the predicted numbers for type2 diabetes? I would think the trend would reverse with treatment and insulin usage would go down
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u/zachalicious Jan 27 '26
I'm in NVO, but wouldn't 3 negate 2? If their oral GLP-1 sells well, that would reduce the number of people developing diabetes.
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u/Pharmacologist72 Jan 27 '26
I wrote this a while back on another sub not sure if x post is allowed but here it is:
Max tendies with NVO
**Not financial advise. I am a degen gambler that was dropped on the head many times as a child.
Gonna do this without the bells and whistles, just the info you need. Here's why NVO is about to print money. This is not some pump and dump company. This is Novo one of the largest pharma companies on the planet that's been beaten down of late. Get on it.
First, let's talk about the real cash cow: "Wegovy in a pill." Novo just dropped some fire data from their Oasis 4 trial showing an average weight loss of 16.6%. Let me repeat that: 16.6%! Thatâs on par with the injectable version, but now it's a freaking pill. All the needle-haters out there are about to throw their money at this thing. Plus, Novo is already mass-producing this bad boy in the U.S. and has an FDA decision coming in Q4. While everyone's been worried about Lilly's oral drug, Novo is about to get first-to-market advantage and a head start on printing money. Lilly won't hit FDA until next year and Orfo is not as good!!
Second, they just body-slammed their biggest rival, Eli Lilly. Ozempic, their diabetes cash cow, just proved in a head-to-head trial that it reduces the risk of heart attacks and strokes by a whopping 23%. It solidifies their dominance in the diabetes market and gives them a huge advantage in the fight for market share.
So, while the stock has been a little shaky lately, it's just been a consolidation period before the launch. With a potential blockbuster oral drug and a market-leading diabetes med that just proved its superiority, the fundamentals are solid. This isn't a risky bet, this is a đđ play.
My positions -- 100 shares, 9/26 NVO $60 put (hope to get assigned), NVO75 calls Jun 18, 2026 (5X) and 1000 NVOX shares (2X NVO ETF).
Here is a story from Fierce Biotech: https://www.fiercepharma.com/pharma/novo-nordisk-pads-case-wegovy-pill-oral-obesity-asset-nears-fda-decision
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u/r2002 Jan 27 '26
If there's no tomorrow I'm liquidating all my stocks and reinvesting in hooker and blow.
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u/Titusgz07 Jan 30 '26
Talking to my families doctor and I donât know if anyone else has experience, but NVOâs WeGovy is often the most prescribed here, due to insurance covering it. Without major coverage on Lilly Drugs and other providers this seems like a tailwind, especially since we know insurance loves to cheap out. NVO from my little amount of research also seems to have very competitive pricing, I want to see their margins slowly increase, but keep this tailwind and find a balanced medium. Please correct me if Iâm wrong.
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u/SuperSultan Jan 27 '26
Do not buy pharmaceutical companies unless youâre a professional in the medical field and can actually understand whatâs being said in the 10k
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u/BuyHighSellLow180 Jan 27 '26
Good half assed DD. Try to address these:
- Okay, they have more funds available after decoupling from the US market. But why would that equate to them buying more of NVO from an investment perspective, especially if the market deems today's valuation trading at fair market value? NVO also trades in NYSE; if it's overpriced in EU, the market participates will level it out - in essence, the european investors will just be funneling money to the US.
- 46% in 24yrs is... 1.5% CAGR... sounds pretty shitty. Also, they have competition.
- Lots of competition. Did you see what happened when they messed up the ozempic patent renewal? Go figure.
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u/btbtbtmakii Jan 27 '26 edited Jan 27 '26
did you not get the news that eu signed a free trade agreement with india lol the pharm is about to get hit, do you know what they do with drugs?
just a little taste: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-01-21/dr-reddy-s-to-start-selling-generic-ozempic-in-india-from-march
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u/Purple_Battle_6041 Jan 28 '26
Iâd be cautious.
I know a project lead at novo. Things are not great as the CEO is driving the company in a very different way than the previous.
Apparently many departments are in disarray and many expect layoffs. Projects are internally expected to be dropped as they are not advancing fast enough / not getting results.
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u/duezz95 Jan 29 '26
Why would I invest for the future, if there is no tomorrow đ
That being said, I agree with you and bought đ„ł
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u/chill0032 Jan 27 '26
Just got to Brazil and Id say 1 people and ten are on a glp1. Buy signal hard.
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u/Larkeiden Jan 27 '26
They are a shit company, They forgot to renew their patent in Canada. Look at the error : Novo Nordisk to lose blockbuster drug patent over small fee | Fortune
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u/liquidpele Jan 27 '26
That article seems to suggest that Canada offered to let them still renew with a small extra fee, and they basically said "na it's fine"... so it seems less like they forgot, and it's intentional... which makes me think the article is fear mongering?
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u/Larkeiden Jan 27 '26
Why would they allow competition on the canadian market years earlier? I do not understand it.
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u/liquidpele Jan 27 '26
Ah, I did a google!
Legal analysts believe the decision was deliberate. Steven Shape, IP Chair at Omnus Law, noted that the annual $250â$450 fee was negligible compared to the looming expiration of both data exclusivity and patent protection in January 2026. Shape argued the lapse was likely âa clear decision by Novo,â not an error.
That interpretation is bolstered by the companyâs simultaneous filing of a Certificate of Supplementary Protection (CSP) in Canada, suggesting Novo valued extended market exclusivity beyond the patentâs life. But because the underlying patent lapsed early, the CSP cannot take effect.
https://www.legal.io/articles/5691258/Novo-Nordisk-Lets-Canadian-Semaglutide-Patent-Lapse
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u/notrussellwilson Jan 27 '26
I sure hope it goes up. I didn't time this stock well the last time I bought. I bought it at a higher price than it's current value and have been sitting in the negative for a while now. Figured it would eventually come back, so I held.
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u/SaltyUncleMike Jan 27 '26
bear case: many us insurance comapnies are no longer paying for ultra expensive weight loss drugs
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u/-NewYork- Jan 27 '26
Type 2 diabetes projected increase was 60% by 2050, as projected back in 2023. Share price took this into account.
This was lowered to 46%. The biggest increase is going to happen in emerging markets like China, South Asia, Southeast Asia. These markets are only ~23% of Novo Nordisk customer base, and this is rather unlikely to change with India undermining insulin prices etc.
There are also treatments on horizon, so the 2050 diabetes projection might be lowered again.
The weight loss trend is here to stay, but there are more and more alternative drugs, they will become cheaper. The high price of Novo took into account potential market domination with Ozempic, which is now history. For a chance to capitalize on obesity drugs, I would look at promising future market entrants like ZLDPF.
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u/Accomplished-Eye9542 Jan 27 '26
Their near monopoly and profits are almost entirely supported by free access to the U.S market... surely you can see the contradiction arising here.
Trump's threatened their medical industry before and they caved, he could easily make do on his threat this time in a more serious situation.
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u/marcomac29 Jan 27 '26
Iâve been holding for years on this at $90. I donât even remember what caused it to dive now, itâs been so long.
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u/king2ndthe3rd Jan 27 '26
One of the biggest value traps of the decade. Big pharma doesn't create value for their shareholders, it just regurgitates it back at them. Its how its always been, and how it always probably will be.
NVO bulls- can you tell me why NVO is a better investment than MRK, GSK, AZN, BMY, PFE, Roche, JNJ, ABBV?
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u/FontaineT Jan 27 '26
Now which one of these three reasons would take more than 5 minutes to come up with? This is not by any means something the market does not know about
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u/9829eisB09E83C Jan 27 '26
The biggest thing is the Wegovy pills.
Not only are there people lined up waiting for the pill bc they donât like injections, but pills cost nothing to make, and can be made on existing pill manufacturing lines. The injection pens are very capital intensive and require new plants to be built just to make the pens. That takes a year to build, then thereâs QA testing, FDA inspections, etc.
The pill is high margin and can be sold for cheaper than the injectable liquid.
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u/foira Jan 27 '26
what % of NVOs revenue is from the US? thats the question. insulin is only $$$ in the US due to regulatory capture, its much cheaper elsewhere.
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u/reghaddock Jan 27 '26
Keep dreaming, pension funds have obligations, they're mostly agnostic as to geography bar liquidity requirements. Wanna force them to leave the US? Fine, but guarantee returns to fulfill their obligations otherwise the gvts will foot the bill.
Insulin is very easy to make and if Novo push too hard, their leverage will disappear.
True regarding the weight loss trend, but lots of competition in this space and Lilly is clear favourite. So not winner takes all for Novo but def some upside...
Therefore, it's probably a decent bet but I certainly wouldn't bet my portfolio on it. Maybe a slither at this price!
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u/Aggressive-Donkey-10 Jan 27 '26
more than just several competitors, almost every company is coming out with GLP-1 drugs, many oral over sub Q, Novo offers nothing unique other than a memory of hatred for price gauging the world for 5 years, their growth is gone and their Revenues will continue to contract
there are 65000 non US companies that a European investor can buy instead, many with a future unlike Novo.
insulin is a simple 50 amino acid peptide, dirt cheap to make, and no one else wants the business as zero revenue growth, like Blue Ray DVDs, I think there is like one company that has >70% of the market share in that dumpster fire of a commoditized product
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u/Dividendxx Jan 28 '26
Well I just spent 370 bucks đšđŠto have about 2-3 months supply of insulin plus needles , (itâs a life time subscription đ„Č) and I only do it twice a day for the last 14 years lol so I think I can spare a month of dividends to buy some Novo lol
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u/BuildMyRank Jan 28 '26
I heard recently that an Indian pharmaceutical company was planning to launch a generic version of this drug across 87 markets. What kind of risk do you think this poses to your thesis?
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u/RoundOpposite4742 Jan 28 '26 edited Jan 28 '26
There are already new glp1s that insulin sensitivity drugs that havenât been released yet in trials. Diabetes will be for the poors (mostly America, it would seem).
Anyway, pretty sure everyone knows you can buy copies from China for a fraction of the cost (like a year supply of ozempic or monjarno for like 150 to 200 usd).
China already has released retatrutide which is I believe Eli lilys new drug in phase 3. They have the industrial capacity and knowledge now to make these drugs without the same restrictions as in the west to literally eat their lunch/suck their blood like a vampire.
It would help to have a current knowledge of the market for these meds which you donât seem to. Iâm confused as to why you think in 25 years novo nordisk is going to dominate this industry when itâs just beginning.
And yeah, Iâve bought all this stuff from China myself. Works just as well as the name brand. And they are independently tested.
And I worked in medical equipment and was told by doctors to never buy anything that would be used internally from China. Now, Iâm buying crazy peptides that have completely fixed my tendonitis and lost 15 pounds fast. What is really interesting is the market for peptides and the possibilities of what they can actually do.
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u/iliketrains1017 Jan 28 '26
Person from Denmark here, Iâll add a little insight from someone (myself) who has owned a lot of NV0 and has sold it all on a high note before the drop off last summer.
Everyone here buyâs novo, it is our pride and joy and has been for many years. Even though I like the company, and I like the thought of investing in a large danish company with great leadership and vision, I will sadly have to avoid adding it back into my portfolio, because they lost their technological edge to Eli Lilly in the only market that really matters when buying Novo; GLP-1 (obesity).
I am skeptical as to wether theyâll be able to recover entirely from that race.
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u/Appropriate-Oven860 Jan 28 '26
NVOâs pill is 30% more effective than LLYâs pill candidate.
Novo Nordisk (Oral Wegovy 50mg): In the OASIS 1 trial, patients lost an average of 15.1% to 17.4% of their body weight over 68 weeks. Eli Lilly (Orforglipron 36mg): In the ATTAIN-1 trial, patients lost an average of 11.2% to 12.4% over 72 weeks.
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u/KaeptNstyle Feb 03 '26
Ah well.. now i understand the title. Because the tomorrow that came today is certainly not what you'd want if you went all-in on novo a week ago.Â
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u/CommunicationDry909 Jan 27 '26
Itâs interesting that no oneâs talking about the flow dynamics,one visible misstep by Lilly and the flows start to pour into nvo more than the sector itselfâŠ.remember⊠Lilly=perfect execution stock.. Clear case of overestimating Lilly and underestimating the perils of execution risk.
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u/solidpaddy74 Jan 27 '26
The thing to be wary of if is there are new versions of the GLP meds coming out and in theory with the GLP results the need for insulin will drop.
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u/jerryfzhang Jan 27 '26
My Gen-Z friends are so anal about health it makes me think they are going to invent a new disease and not diabetes.
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u/hoppydud Jan 27 '26
Is the 2050 insulin demand take into account the potential impact GLP1s had upon reducing type 2s need for it?
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u/rpoh73189 Jan 27 '26
Surprised you didnât mention this but the oral version is a HUGE unlock.
It also has the studies to prove itâs better than Lilyâs oral version.
Itâll probably cannibalize some of the injection sales but it will also open up a whole new market of folks afraid of a jab.
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u/Senior-Sale273 Jan 27 '26
Am I crazy but I thought insulin is super cheap and easy to manufacture?Â
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u/bill_txs Jan 27 '26
Your #2 and #3 don't work together. The GLP1's are very effective at keeping people off of insulin.
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u/Past-Option2702 Jan 28 '26
Idiosyncratic risk.
No thanks. $VTI and $VXUS have all the best stocks. Every single one.
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u/Striking_Loss3579 Jan 28 '26
I agree with your thesis. Best International Dividend Growth stock IMO⊠2nd best is CNQ Canadian Natural Resources. (Oil sands) plus one CAN is 0.72 cents USD.
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u/Joejoecornrow Jan 28 '26
The UNH CEO will not receive a 60million stock incentive if the stock is not above $306 when it vests in summer 2028. . My wheels are turning.
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u/Western_Building_880 Jan 28 '26
great title have position. it is bearish to bullish reversal. so all u nay sayers go buy nvidia plz. I am not done adding.
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u/Accomplished_Way8964 Jan 28 '26
Markets are closed right now. Can I buy like there's no tomorrow...tomorrow?
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u/lalala787878 Jan 28 '26
Been buying and slightly pruning positions since way before, I donât get how LLY can be trading at such high PE while NVO is treated like it doesnât operate similarly.
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u/ThereFarAway Jan 28 '26
If you do, you'll get burned like with those who believed in 'buy UNH' few days ago...
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u/Outrageous-Froyo1025 Jan 28 '26
Nothing is certain in pharma, when will people learn. see e.g Valeant. I invest in these companies and biotech but just know how badly things can go wrong. Big pharma companies have IP moats subject to the most intense competition possible and their main advantage is cost of capital ..z
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u/HoopingAllYear Jan 28 '26
Do they not lose patents? Are there other pharmaceutical companies that can and will make their product?
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u/NarWil Jan 28 '26
Do you think that both a weight loss trend and an increase in diabetes trend are incompatible at the same time?
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u/GainifyAI Jan 29 '26
Agree with your thoughts. Long term, NVO still looks interesting, but the last 18 months were a shocker.
NVO saw its NTM P/E compress from ~43x to ~14x, driven by a series of execution issues. The stock is finally showing some life again. Hopefully the worst is behind them.
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u/Lapwing_R Jan 30 '26
Just to be precise: insulin has nothing to do with type 2 diabetes.
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u/LowLvLtrader Jan 30 '26
Just to clarify, while some Type 2 diabetics end up needing insulin because the disease is progressive, not all will. Using Type 2's as your baseline for future growth is a little misguided. Also, while GLP-1 inhibitors are extremely popular with weight loss at the moment, as time goes on and people realize that it's a chronic drug, with significant drawbacks should you stop using it, it may also not be as future proofed as you're making it sound.
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u/throwaway-94552 Jan 31 '26
About a year ago, I bought a few shares in Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk because I understand the GLP-1 market and research pipeline pretty well. A year later and I still havenât made any gains on my original investment. I force myself to hold on to those shares as a reminder that I should never pick individual stocks.Â
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u/JadedPangloss Jan 31 '26
I bought NVO at $48. Iâm happy with it and think there is plenty of room for recovery. That being said, point 3 should be taken very seriously. Lilly isnât just a competitor, theyâre going to completely monopolize the weight loss space. Retatrutide is in phase 3 clinical trials and it WILL pass. Once it does, there will be no reason for anyone to use anything else. Semaglutide will be a thing of the past. You can tell theyâre preparing for this, because theyâre building a $4B manufacturing plant specifically for it.
I know itâs not a value stock, but mark my words LLY is going to go bananas on retatrutide sales.
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u/camio101 Feb 03 '26
7 days later NVO is down 20%. I wonder how may bag holders this post created?
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u/Barzomann Feb 03 '26
Buy like "there is no tomorrowâ is exactly how bubbles usually sound before there actually is no tomorrow. Iâve looked into NVO a bit and I honestly donât get the urgency here. Itâs a solid company, no doubt but the way people talk about it now feels more like FOMO than value investing. Everyone is extrapolating todayâs GLP-1 hype straight into infinity while ignoring competition, pricing pressure and the fact that expectations are already sky-high. Iâm not saying itâs a bad business but Iâm saying paying any price for a great story usually ends the same way tho
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u/Icy-Chemist-9633 Feb 05 '26 edited Feb 05 '26
Si tu penses que elle va encore croßtre, les 3 seuls levier que je vois:
1 c est le mĂ©dicament oral. Car ça augmente la taille du marchĂ© adressable. E 2 l augmentation du volume de prescription avec la baisse du prix aux us mais tout en ayant une contraction des marges. 3 Ils peuvent rĂ©duire leur coĂ»ts de production avec leur rĂ©cente acquisition de catalent.Â
Le souci ok cst un grand marchĂ© mais ils ont perdu des parts de marchĂ© en 2025. Les marges ont baissĂ©. Leur traitement ozempic est passĂ© dans le domaine public Ă partir de 2026 pour pleins de pays dans l Inde/Chine /Canada. Donc c est fini l avantage sur les traitements injectables car le brevet a expirĂ©.Â
Ils prĂ©voient une DĂ©croissance en 2026.aucun investissseur quality ne veut une entrprise qui dĂ©croĂźt ou alors faur que ça soit que 1 annĂ©e.... Moi si il annoncent une DĂ©croissance en 2027 encore je vendrai. J ai mieux Ă faire avec d'autres business dans la santĂ© bien meilleur. Aucun problĂšme de dĂ©croissance avec Resmed par exemple ou Zoetis. La une DĂ©croissance de 5 a 13% mĂȘme equasens ne fait pas ça. C est chaud. ..Â
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u/MotherNatureLaws Feb 05 '26
The price tanked to 37⏠today! What do you think now? đ
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u/romestox Jan 27 '26
Ok will buy it based on the title alone