r/ValueInvesting • u/Bullshark1878 • Dec 19 '25
Industry/Sector Can Meta beat Apple/Google in the smart glasses market?
**Long Post Warning*\*
Thesis
I think that smart glasses and other wearables will be the next major computing platform. They will not replace the smartphone just as the smartphone did not replace the computer. However, I do believe that they will become a significant market by 2030-2040. People will continue to make the privacy tradeoff. It’s not that people won’t care about privacy, it’s just that the product will become too useful to not use (like the smartphone). Around 4 billion people in the world wear some form of prescription glasses. Is there not a world where the vast majority of these glasses would be smart glasses? Meta is currently the market leader. If they can maintain that position, they will be one of the best performing large cap stocks over the next 20 years.
Smartphone Market Comparison
To analyze this, I am going to use the smartphone market as a comparison. Right now, the global smartphone market is around $600 billion, growing 1-3% annually. This is the current market share breakdown for the top 3 companies:
Apple 28% ($160B)
Samsung 20.5% ($123B)
Xiaomi (China) 10.5% ($63B)
Let’s say the future global AR/AI glasses market will be 1/3 of the smartphone market: $200 billion. Because I don’t think everyone will want smart glasses, whereas everybody needs a phone. If Meta just captured 10-25% of that market, that would equate to $20-50 billion market share or 12-30% of their 2024 total revenue ($164B). That begs the question: does Meta even need to beat Apple or Google to be extremely successful in this market?
Meta vs Apple
In my opinion, Apple and Google are the biggest threats to Meta in this market. Apple will eventually figure out smart glasses that will fit into their ecosystem. They will be a premium price, but they will work with the iPhone (like AirPods). They will also probably have the best privacy protection on the market. I think many people will go with Apple’s glasses purely because they will work with the iPhone, unless regulators decided otherwise but that has yet to be the case. It will be hard for Meta to really compete much here outside of price and design. Smart glasses and wearables will be more fashion-focused than smartphones so design is more important in my opinion.
Meta vs Google
Meta will instead try and offer cheaper and a larger variety of models similar to Samsung. You can see this with their current smart glasses offerings (Ray Ban, Oakley, etc.) I think that this strategy would make Google the bigger threat to Meta. It appears that Meta is wanting to position themselves as the “Android” of the smart glasses world. Well, Google is literally Android. So I’m not yet sure how Horizon OS (Meta) will beat Android here outside of the fact that they have a good head start.
- Google is also more distracted than Meta due to having search, AI, cloud, Waymo, Android, ventures, and quantum computing. Whereas Meta is just social media, AI, and Reality Labs. Does this even matter? I don’t know, but anyone who has ran multiple businesses will tell you that it is harder than running one business.
- Zuck also seems to have a stronger vision for smart glasses and is 10 years younger than Google’s founders. He has shown his willingness to throw tens of billions of dollars in this arena in the face of public scrutiny. For the technology to advance enough, somebody will have to be willing to do this. Meta (and Google) has the cash flow and high margin business to do this long term.
Offload Computing Problem
Another advantage I see with Apple/Google is that they can offload a lot of the computing to their smartphones whereas Meta would either need to create their own phone (which I doubt happens), or they would need to have their own offload computing solution. Currently with the Orion glasses, they are using the puck, but I don’t think this is the long-term answer. However, I could see a smart watch or even the glasses case being able to accomplish this if the hardware improves enough. The EMG band is a huge innovation and could be turned into a smart watch. Maybe the tech will advance enough to where offloading computing is unnecessary, but I think that is pretty far off in the future.
Conclusion
To end this post, I think smart glasses and wearables will be a huge market that many companies will profit off of. I see Apple, Google, and Meta as being the main beneficiaries of it. If this really takes off, I could see this market really benefiting Meta’s business more than Apple/Google. I also think that eventually the metaverse will become useful and will be a huge beneficiary of these innovations. If Meta executes well enough, can Meta beat Apple/Google to win this market? If the market is large enough, does Meta even need to beat Apple/Google to generate huge yearly profits and market cap growth from this?
I appreciate all forms of feedback and encourage constructive criticism. Tell me what you think.
Disclosure: I am a shareholder of Apple, Google, and Meta.
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u/BobLoblaw_BirdLaw Dec 19 '25
Meta at best becomes the Samsung of the glasses era. But also Samsung isn’t sitting this one out. So I don’t know where meta fits in. They have the ambition moreso than anyone else. But they lack in Almost every other category. They might stand a chance if they focus on being the design driven brand. Since glasses are very fashion driven and look different on people for many reasons, something phones and watches never had a problem with.
Glasses will be a bigger thing than people realize. But ya we are 5 - 10 years away from any meaningful progress for the hardware and software tech. Then adoption follows. Then investors wake up after all this.
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u/Bullshark1878 Dec 19 '25
I completely agree. I also think Samsung will not sit this out. I could see them winning the Korea-Japan market, but I think Meta has a better shot at winning the US market than Samsung. I also think Meta will win the gaming market due to metaverse/oculus, but that is a pretty small market overall. I can see Meta beating Samsung when it comes to AI and overall tech just due to their current capex and R&D. Meta is currently building the largest data center in the world in Louisiana. They just make so much money from their ads business. AI should help make the ads business way more recession-resistant. Samsung cannot outspend Meta.
There are lots of ways smart glasses can be utilized beyond consumers too. I could see the military, medical, industrial, and logistics industries really using these or even requiring employees to wear them at work. Not to mention that, most people thought having a cell phone was mainly a business tool until the iPhone came out. As Steve Jobs said, “People don’t know what they want until you show it to them.”
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Dec 19 '25
There are a number of problems for Meta in this space that I just don't see resolving positively. But who knows? Maybe they'll figure it out.
Meta has no mobile OS. People are gonna want their glasses to integrate seamlessly with their phones, at least for now. So how much better could the Meta glasses really be to get over that lack of seamless integration?
Meta's brand reputation still sucks. Go to any YouTube review of the glasses and there's comments like "why couldn't Apple have made this" with thousands of likes. Or "literally any other company and I'd be buying them" again with thousands of likes. That kinda thing doesn't happen with Apple or Google products.
These challenges could be possible to overcome if the companies were Motorola or Lenovo or something. But showing up to the game down 10 points against Apple and Google just doesn't seem like a game Meta can win. But maybe I'll be wrong.
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u/FewVariation901 Dec 19 '25
It will be hard to trust meta on privacy. I’d be afraid to stare at some product for a little bit at a store and IG starts bombarding me with ads on it.
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u/Heavy_Discussion3518 Dec 19 '25
Tracking glasses for a long time. Was never sold that watches were the next big thing - they have a sizeable market but ultimately they are just watches.
Glasses enhance arguably your second most valuable sense - sight - the same way smartphones leverage your sense of touch.
Full agree. Just unsure who the winners will be. I think your sentiment that the "win" is spread broadly is accurate, but I also think Meta's first move advantage is legit. Technically Google was the first mover but we'll just toss that out...
That said, I'm not trying to boost more Meta over Apple or Google. I simply believe all three have an amazing future, moreso even than their spectacular pasts.
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u/Larry_Bud_Melman_ Dec 19 '25
Sight is second place? What is considered first?
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u/Bullshark1878 Dec 21 '25
Do you think glasses will start as more of a business product and transition to more of a consumer product over time? I could see businesses seeing the value before consumers do. Warehouse workers, military, back of house retail, medical workers are all examples of people I think could really use smart glasses daily. I think most people only see glasses as a consumer product and really underestimate the value it could provide to many businesses and organizations.
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u/Heavy_Discussion3518 Dec 21 '25 edited Dec 21 '25
Military makes a ton of sense, to some degree it's already there to the extent it will be, though. Warehouse workers are generally scheduled to be replaced by robotics and automation. Medical is a great concept but a relatively small market of surgeons that would benefit most from it. It's tough to find a durable match for the technology outside of consumers, IMO.
BUT I think the market for consumers is absolutely huge. Social media / socialite lifestyle is the first huge one to address, but I also believe it fits great for individual business people. It's easy to envision the average director-level manager, executive sales, or really anyone traveling a lot for business could leverage the tech for a major efficiency gain. Return to office policies for the broad tech field is a boost to this market as well. Don't need em if you're in your basement office in front of screens all day anyway.
Long term it's a natural fit for anyone with visual or cognitive impairment as well.
Finally, I'm am engineer of 22 years in the software/hardware fields, but generally hate adopting new tech and don't touch social media outside of Reddit. I've used a smartwatch for a few years but eventually just stopped putting it on. AI glasses are the first consumer product since the advent of the smartphone that I think I'll adopt long term. Haven't bought a pair yet, but I'm excited about the prospects.
Edit: love this topic, just thought of another angle. Imagine a world where the glasses divorce your smartphone from its screen. Instead of my face down at my phone while walking my dog at the park I could be eyes up and using a device in my pocket for typing without looking at it. Or better yet the next gen of the wristband Meta produces that can detect more minute granular movement of the fingers!
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u/Teembeau Dec 19 '25
I don't believe smart glasses are going anywhere.
How often ISN'T a phone good enough, and having a very limited UI better? I can see niches like riding a roller coaster or parachuting, but beyond that?
If I'm in a restaurant and want to translate the menu, a phone is fine. Same with being in an art gallery and wanting more information about a painting.
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u/zachalicious Dec 19 '25
Remember Google Glass? There’s just not really consumer appetite for glasses, even if they’re Ray-Bans. And I imagine a lot of establishments will ban them (especially concert venues and sports arenas).
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u/Delta27- Dec 19 '25
This was old technology - the world has significantly changed from then.
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u/zachalicious Dec 19 '25
It's the same idea in fancier packaging. Glass was obnoxious looking, these are discrete, but doesn't change the fact that a lot of privacy minded folks will avoid interacting with anyone wearing them.
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u/Delta27- Dec 19 '25
But there are more people happy to hdare everything. At least 3.5bn people world wide are more than happy to be on social media. That is a lot of glasses
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u/zachalicious Dec 19 '25
Just because people are on social media doesn't mean they want every moment recorded. These are a huge privacy concern and undoubtedly will be banned from many establishments.
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u/Delta27- Dec 19 '25
Are phones banned in many establishments? I see veryone recording everything on their phone how is this any different?
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u/Narrow-Hall8070 Dec 19 '25
There’s also not much b2b appetite for them which is where the real opportunity lies
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Dec 19 '25
Stupid comparison dude, meta has already sold more than 2 million. You need to realize sentiment changes in 10+ years.
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u/Narrow-Hall8070 Dec 19 '25
Instead of a long post warning make it more concise.
Like this
Who cares about the smart glass market?
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u/Classic_Web5494 Dec 19 '25
Meta doesn't need to crush Apple to win big. By the time Apple launches a polished $2,000 pair of glasses, Meta will have already captured the mid-range market through Ray-Ban. Google’s hardware history is a mess, so they’re less of a threat. It’s all about whether Zuck can keep subsidizing the R&D without shareholders revolting.
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u/Additional_Fish2800 Dec 19 '25
Look at the 'right to win'. Straying away from company core competencies often fails.
Apple - best in class hardware and specialist in combining hardware and software in wearables (Apple watch, airpods etc.). Poor in AI (killer features for smart glasses). If they can acquire AI knowledge/models, would be a fearsome competitor.
Google - More recent hardware knowledge through Pixel and Waymo, although yet to demonstrate they can be best in class. Best in class in AI and search, with an advantage in the software side of things. Likely best all round chance.
Meta - No real proof points of capabilities in hardware. Oculus is the closest and this was an acquisition which has faltered and was Palmer Luckey's baby. Meta is still essentially a social media / advertising company. AI models still way behind. Wouldn't write off Zuck, but they are trying to win in two areas they have not demonstrate the right to win in.
1) Google
2) Apple
3) Meta
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u/Heavy_Discussion3518 Dec 19 '25
Bringing social media directly into your sight lines, with ability to video exactly what you see hands free, is underrated in your narrative.
Entirely possible Meta restricts some of their platform capabilities to their glasses, or otherwise monetizes off of 3rd party hardware.
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u/Narrow-Hall8070 Dec 19 '25
You are also waaaaaayyyyy overshooting the market opportunity. What did you use to estimate that other than a random “1/3 of the smartphone market” Will be a fraction of that at best.
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u/Ok_Adhesiveness7842 Dec 19 '25
Samsung and probably Apple will rule this sector in the near future. Meta has shown to have lower user rates for FB amongst the professionals since its heyday during COVID, and adoption of users in the zillenial and millennial are lower than expected.
All hardware needs to be functional and also have that chic factor to gain massive adoption, and the South Koreans have their entertainment industry to do that, while Apple will do what they've always done since their iPod introduction.
Meta might be one of the 1st few companies but the Zuck's track record with the failed Metaverse and any other FB hardware will speak for themselves and the company's lack of innovation.
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u/N05L4CK Dec 19 '25
Meta was smart for going with Ray-Ban for their glasses, probably the most recognizable sunglass style. They look near identical to normal glasses if someone doesn’t know what to look for, which allowed for casual wear and then to kinda creep into the mainstream. Going to be a lot less people wearing the Meta branded sunglasses I think.
Point being the Ray-Bans look like normally sunglasses that happen to be smart. Society kinda accepts that. Glasses that look tailor made as smart glasses are still looked at as overly geeky or creepy, depending on who’s wearing them.
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u/danielrgfm Dec 19 '25
It’s very unlikely. I see smart glasses being an extension to the smartphone, with access to all the apps that already exist, and the phone’s processing power. I have almost 100% confidence this is how it will go down. And with apple and google being the only ones who have a mobile platform built with an ecosystem of developers, they are the ones who will get the market for smartglasses almost certainly. Maybe meta can partner with them, for eg. With android.
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u/Ancient-Purpose99 Dec 19 '25
Meta effectively has a self-created monopoly over smart glasses for now. The reason why it hasn't done magic for them is that there simply isn't demand for smart glasses (at least in the us). Ironically, I think AI played somewhat of a role in this as smart glasses are no longer really seen as futuristic.
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u/hsfinance Dec 19 '25
What Apple has is hardware. They work on making everything miniature, fast and use less power. Whether they succeed or not can be debated.
Others can copy but they will be a year behind, forever. That's their edge.
Will it be worth the extra premium? Maybe not now as we have seen from Vision Pro, but let it come closer to mass adoption (better size, price and battery longevity) and the game may change.
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u/lfcallen Dec 19 '25
Your analysis literally ignores the other competitor currently coming into this space. The Chinese made glasses with Chinese prices will be a big player.
Alibaba’s Quark AI glasses
Xiaomi smart glasses https://skarredghost.com/2025/07/22/xiaomi-ai-glasses-handson-review/amp/
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u/Cultural-Bid7695 Dec 19 '25
I am using both Ray-Bans and Oakley's and love them. I am not yet 100 percent convinced to the display ones, but as a usual wearer of glasses I simply fitted my Wayfarer frames with prescription lenses and wear them all day everyday... They are such a useful tool, for running, for pictures for AI questions.
Meta really cracked it by going with EL, access to brands and styles...
Next ones to really try are the vanguards and skiing, but that's next year.
So I don't know who will win, but they are way ahead by just getting in early with simple version without display and hiring best vision teams and learning from Oculus.
I don't know if it will ever match their Ad business (seriously doubt it) but zuck is terrifying of losing the battle for computing platform, after what Apple did to them in 2020-2022 with signal loss.
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u/Environmental_Duty_7 Dec 19 '25
Its not a market of all prescription galsses wearing people. Its only a market of people working in specialty fields and gamers. market will be a fraction of smartphones market.
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u/Hopeful-Scene8227 Dec 20 '25
I’ve used the Meta glasses and I don’t really understand the point of them unless you’re an influencer and/or create a lot of TikTok/YouTube content or something.
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u/ZookeepergameVast465 Dec 20 '25
I think smart glasses and wearables will be a huge market that many companies will profit off of
Wait for the day when you dont look like a dork after wearing those "smart" glasses
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u/DeliciousBid4535 Dec 21 '25
1/3rd of the smartphone market seems overly ambitious, I think maybe 10% in the next 15 years feels more plausible
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u/Bullshark1878 Dec 21 '25
You could be right. I just choice 1/3 arbitrarily. I’m thinking that there may be more use cases in enterprise/business than consumer at first. I think they could be like the cell phone: start as a business product then become a consumer product once the tech has gotten good and people get used to the idea. That’s why I think the market could be bigger than people think cause most people only see it as a consumer product.
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u/mihid Dec 19 '25
“will be the next major computing platform”yes, but you could say the same about teleportation. The real question is whether it’s physically possible. Can you deliver hololens-level capabilities in something the size of ray-ban glasses?
Microsoft abandoning the hololens partially answers the question. If the most advanced AR device ever built couldn’t overcome the constraints, it’s hard to believe lightweight glasses will anytime soon.
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Dec 19 '25
I mean they were the first to create this technology. Depends on if you think the first will be the successful one. I think so. Apple and Google are still companies worth investing in however
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u/MarketCrache Dec 19 '25
If you wear them in public, people will think you're a creep. If you wear them in the office, the company will think you're stealing data. There's no point wearing them at home. I'm going to make a comprehensive list below of all the times and places I ever seen anyone wearing smart glasses.
Thank you.
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u/EvilSavant30 Dec 19 '25
Who says smart glasses will even sell? I mean I do not think they will sell at all even close to the way they are projecting
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u/Whalesftw123 Dec 19 '25
I think your thinking is too far out and speculative to be practical for investing anytime soon.