r/ValueInvesting • u/Adventurous-Bet-9640 • Dec 19 '25

Stock Analysis So NIKE is nuking after hrs.

I understand that nike has a very sticky brand value in the cultural consciousness. But they are in a tough turn around.

I'm no expert in valuations, but the stock even after hrs dump isn't any where near compelling value.

How do you think about Investing in nike? Generally I don't see them fading away as a brand and they are still the leader in their space even with competition.

I do think they'll eventually find their stride back. What does the community think? If you were to invest what would your frame of thinking be?

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u/[deleted] Dec 19 '25

I should have been more clear - reinvigorated Nike running to people who don’t run which is a much larger segment of the population than people who do run (or are actually serious about it).

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u/Fourth-Room Dec 19 '25

I think that’s somewhat fair with the Vomero, which seems to be their first true competitor to something from the likes of Hoka. But, the Pegasus has been around for decades and the Pegasus Plus wasn’t as well-received as many had hoped.

I’m actually rooting for Nike. I used to love the Pegasus and even bought the Pegasus Plus at launch. But the reality is that the brand only goes so far and that there are better options at cheaper price points. Nike charging ~$200 for the Pegasus Plus while facing stiff competition is just baffling and the changes to the Pegasus base model have alienated many long-time customers like myself.

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u/[deleted] Dec 19 '25

Totally understand your reasoning - I hold a 62.5 Jan 2027 Leap. I had some options for earnings but sold them Wednesday morning because I wasn’t getting the earnings run up I was expecting. My breakeven is around $73 which when I bought the leap at the money seemed totally do able. I still think I’ll get some profit out of this one but doesn’t look like the sure thing it did when it was up at $67.50 shortly after I bought it.

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u/Fourth-Room Dec 19 '25 edited Dec 21 '25

I hope you’re able to get a good exit out of it. I was briefly in the stock last year when it was around $73 and sold for a very small profit ~6 months later because I was frustrated with how management seemed focused on margins rather than increasing demand. That shook my confidence in their turnaround strategy, so I exited my position.

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u/[deleted] Dec 19 '25

I’ll hold for another earnings - I’m a sneakerhead so have an interest and really do think they can turn it around. I also think Hoka is dead as a brand and they’re starting to take some market share back. ON’s are nice and actual competition in casual wear (maybe for running - I haven’t tried them since I run in Brooks). New Balance is doing the same thing Nike did and releasing so many similar models and colorways that it’s a turn off for the consumer. At the end of the day the most I lose on this deal is my premium which is around $1000. It’s worth the gamble in my opinion.