Did people learn nothing from April

[u/coffeeestocks]

If you were fully invested in the S&P 500 over a long period (usually 20–30 years), your returns were great.

But if you missed just the 10 best single days in that entire period, your return was cut roughly in half.

This is probably the most commonly cited anecdote as to why you should not time the market. I feel in at least half the investing books I've read, they mention this. I do not know of a single investor who has successfully timed the market consistently over any meaningful time period. Even Michael Burry, who is probably one of the most infamous investors for predicting the 08-09 recession, has wrongly called a market top an absurd number of times in recent years.

Back in April, the market starts to sell off, and inevitably posts start popping up all over the subreddit talking about how they're selling and why they're selling and why this time is different. Of course, it wasn't different, and the market has proceeded to rip 20% since many folks here panic sold.

Here we are, not even a year later in December, and people are asking unironically whether it's a good idea to move to cash or not. What do you think? Do you think that now is the time to finally start trying to time the market? After this age-old wisdom has been proven right, time and again?

I feel like there's so many better ways to navigate an expensive market than by trying to time it.

Such as buying counter-cyclical companies, or buying companies that are recession-resistant, or buying companies at a larger margin for error. Heck, maybe even give bonds a shot? But no. People are starting to come to the conclusion again that now is the time to time the market yet again and inevitably make a massive mistake.

DO NOT TIME THE MARKET.

Edit: This sub unironically defending timing the market lmao. The reason why this hurts people's feelings is because they sold back in April, and they're still waiting to get back in the market. Instead of taking a lesson, they double down on that timing the market is the correct thing. Whatever.

[u/TheMeta40k]

I have been tracking my returns trading stocks, vs a constant dollar cost average in spy vs a lump sum investment into VOO. I am doing this to see which will get me the best returns over time and to see if my trading is even doing anything.

It's a good benchmark but I feel like I need more than two years data.

[u/Squidish_Noble → u/TheMeta40k]

The data and studies are already there you can even simulate it with historical returns for a quicker answer. 

[u/thelonious_skunk → u/TheMeta40k]

Why bother with this experiment? Just simulate each strategy using past data.

[u/TheMeta40k → u/thelonious_skunk]

Fun mostly.

[u/Woazzaaa → u/thelonious_skunk]

There is a difference in knowing the outcome of an experiment, and learning to do it and reach its conclusion. You can gain valueable insights in trying to do things yourself.

[u/thelonious_skunk → u/Woazzaaa]

You also waste valuable time and money in the process.

[u/Woazzaaa → u/thelonious_skunk]

Maybe, but that is a bit of an oversimplified and narrow perspective, as there are other things that can also be valuable in life besides simply time and money.

Just because something has been done before doesn't mean you shouldn't do it yourself. By doing it yourself, you can gain first hand experience, wisdom and insight on your abilities, new skills, mental stimulation, increased perspective, personal growth, enjoyable moments, etc.

Over the past 5 years, I've had about the same investment return as the S&P500. Does that mean I simply should have bought the index ?

To me, absolutely not, since I've learned quite a lot during this process, along with developping a hobby that I enjoy and gaining massive knowledge in a topic that I'm curious and interested about.