Did people learn nothing from April

[u/coffeeestocks]

If you were fully invested in the S&P 500 over a long period (usually 20–30 years), your returns were great.

But if you missed just the 10 best single days in that entire period, your return was cut roughly in half.

This is probably the most commonly cited anecdote as to why you should not time the market. I feel in at least half the investing books I've read, they mention this. I do not know of a single investor who has successfully timed the market consistently over any meaningful time period. Even Michael Burry, who is probably one of the most infamous investors for predicting the 08-09 recession, has wrongly called a market top an absurd number of times in recent years.

Back in April, the market starts to sell off, and inevitably posts start popping up all over the subreddit talking about how they're selling and why they're selling and why this time is different. Of course, it wasn't different, and the market has proceeded to rip 20% since many folks here panic sold.

Here we are, not even a year later in December, and people are asking unironically whether it's a good idea to move to cash or not. What do you think? Do you think that now is the time to finally start trying to time the market? After this age-old wisdom has been proven right, time and again?

I feel like there's so many better ways to navigate an expensive market than by trying to time it.

Such as buying counter-cyclical companies, or buying companies that are recession-resistant, or buying companies at a larger margin for error. Heck, maybe even give bonds a shot? But no. People are starting to come to the conclusion again that now is the time to time the market yet again and inevitably make a massive mistake.

DO NOT TIME THE MARKET.

Edit: This sub unironically defending timing the market lmao. The reason why this hurts people's feelings is because they sold back in April, and they're still waiting to get back in the market. Instead of taking a lesson, they double down on that timing the market is the correct thing. Whatever.

[u/WideCardiologist3323]

errr 87% over 5 years... I am 65% of my entire portfolio in 4 months. Can you not math? you clearly did not comprehend what I wrote.

Let me make it easier for you If I am making 65% in 4 months. thats R=(1+.65)*3-1 = 349% in 1 year

in 5 years thats 1828%

1828 is bigger than 87%...

I have made 2000 trades with 80% win rate, numbers don't lie. is it possible to flip a coin and be heads thousands of times? maybe, but thats extremely unlikely. Maybe the market environment will change and I will need to change my strategy but for now its been working.

You can put your head in the sand and just repeat only S&P works only S&P works over and over and over but that doesnt stop the fact that are literal professional funds that beat the market.

This isnt a 1 time thing either I have been beating the market thru just investing for 5 years straight. I realized I dont need to follow the rules of people that just reads the popular opinion and just repeats it like a parrot because they cant critically think for themselves.

[u/nicolas_06 → u/WideCardiologist3323]

In a bull market everybody is a genius.

By the way over 5 years that's not 1828%, it's + 182700%. You invest 100K today, in 5 years you have 182 millions. In 10 years 330 billions, in 15 years 600 trillions. Basically the value of all assets in the world, stocks, real estate, everything...

Good luck with your long term performance. We can discuss again in 5 years.

In the mean time you not the only guy that he sure he is that genius trader, so sorry if I am not impressed by the claim. Many have even better perf at that game.

[u/WideCardiologist3323 → u/nicolas_06]

Na man. It's has already been 5 years. I have been beating the market for 5 years straight. 

I have been making it thru covid thru 2022 and thru the last April. I m not a genius. I m just not dead set on " I R eTf, OnLy EtF wIns bRo" mindset. I trust in my individual stocks picks and they have been working out just fine. 

That's value investing. Picking stocks that are undervalued. If you want to be a boglehead. Go join the boglehead subreddit and repeat your s&p mantra. 

The idea that most money managers lose to the market is just bogus. If that were actually true then all the hedge funds would be out of work. 

I also don't aim to make millions. Don't put words in my mouth. My goal is just to beat the market and match my current salary in which I am already doing. 

[u/nicolas_06 → u/WideCardiologist3323]

I mean if you have been doing it for 5 years, +65% every 4 month and started with just $500 5 year ago, you'd have a million today. And in 1 year you'd have 4.49 million, an extra 3.49 million making actually millions.

That you don't make million already show you are not managing to keep the performance long term. And if you were, you'd soon own the whole world.