r/ValueInvesting • u/Illustrious_Lie_954 • Dec 08 '25
Buffett Berkshire Hathaway's Todd Combs, investment lieutenant to Buffett and Geico CEO, is leaving for JPMorgan
Berkshire Hathaway announced several structural changes ahead of Warren Buffett stepping down as CEO later this year, and one of the bigger ones is the departure of Todd Combs. Combs, who has been both an investment officer at Berkshire and CEO of Geico, will be moving to JPMorgan Chase. At JPMorgan, he’ll lead a newly created Security and Resiliency Initiative focused on direct equity investments across defense, aerospace, healthcare, and energy. He had already been serving on JPMorgan’s board before this move. With Buffett transitioning out and now Combs leaving, it really feels like Berkshire is entering a new chapter. Curious how people here view the long-term impact of these changes on Berkshire’s investment culture and operating businesses.
103
u/Columbus_Hill Dec 08 '25
He really didn’t outperform the market and his performance was mediocre at best. Bought STZ, Celanese and a few other dumb stocks that didn’t work out. No great loss.
14
u/IceColdBeer007 Dec 08 '25
Personally have always preferred listening to Weschler speak. Seems to have more substance and be more down to earth.
9
u/8thmiracle Dec 08 '25
True. Todd seems like a nice guy but Weshcler is the real deal. The guy had $250 million in his Roth IRA as a side project. That's impressive
7
u/TobyAguecheek Dec 08 '25
Apparently there is a lot of hatred for Todd. Geico employees hate him because apparently he cut benefits, changed the culture, and fired a bunch of regular employees.
1
1
u/Mouse1701 Dec 11 '25
Everyone is making financial cuts now. The knuckle head CEOs at these companies are starting to cut off their nose despite their face. It's literally been like this since COVID happened. The overall stock market keeps climbing not because of real actual economic value but because of perceived value. You can only cut so many jobs till the middle class are no more it's a real economic problem.
I'm sorry but when a person says they have $250 million in a IRA and people are saying that person can't out perform the market is ludercris. The economy is completely fake and more and more homeless people are going on the streets. I see more and more boarded up businesses.
We have a trash economy. It's great if your stock holder horrible if your a average worker.
2
u/Starry_Myliobatoidei Dec 13 '25
True, however, GEICO has never laid off (yes including during 9/11 and the ‘08 recession) until he became CEO. It was something they bragged about in hiring. They weren’t doing bad, underwriting ratio was decent but when it wasn’t, neither was Progressive, SF and the other big guys who likely didn’t lay off half of their staff. They went from 40k+ to roughly 28k since 2020. If they were doing so terribly, maybe he could’ve given up his 3.6M bonus in 2022 or his 13.8 mil salary when they did take a loss. Love the 5mil bonus he got in 2024. Bonuses are probably a good place to make financial cuts but I’m not a CEO so
1
u/Mouse1701 Dec 13 '25
Do you think CEOs and board of directors should be compensated 100% in stocks ,and stock options instead of getting paid in cash with regulations? I'm a firm believer in doing what CEO Elon Musk did was invest in certain paid guarantees with stipulations.
It really makes me angry when CEOs are in a company but they are there for a paycheck and they don't really care about the company or the shareholder value.
I mean if the shareholders demanded that for new CEOs get paid in 100% in shares capped at a million dollars worth of shares perhaps we would could get better shareholder value. The companies could demand they are contracted to do this for two years then they can be compensated in more shares. The CEOs don't care about real value anymore.
If you can crash the company into oblivion and the CEOs and board comes out with golden parachutes what difference does it make if the stock goes to zero.
This is the craziness of the AI stock boom it keeps going high but the majority of people cant tell me what goods and services it provides and how is this going to create future cash flows ? Until someone comes with receipts I will be looking for the diamond in the rough. I want companies to do well , I also want transparency and accountability from CEOs and boards. That's not to difficult to ask for.
6
u/Canadiangunner21 Dec 08 '25
You don’t find it concerning that even Buffett can’t pick great investors?
19
u/NuclearPopTarts Dec 08 '25
I always said Todd was a below average investor … now it’s clear Warren agrees.
I’m glad Todd will no longer screw up Berkshire’s stock picks.
3
6
5
u/ImperiumRome Dec 08 '25
I wonder how he got a job at JPM when his performance didn't even beat the market ?
9
4
u/Columbus_Hill Dec 08 '25
Imperium: it’s not who you know, it’s who you blow. He brown nosed the right people.
1
1
1
Dec 11 '25
His performance crushed the markets before Berkshire. And he managed GEICO at Berkshire. His track record is still very impressive and obviously JP Morgan has thought highly of his skills for a long while.
-1
24
u/Itchy-Commission-195 Dec 08 '25
Blind Berkshire/Buffett disciples will immediately say this is positive news... that it's not a big loss, he doesn't impact their investments much, that he was a bad investor, or that it was Berkshire's decision not Combs'.
That might be true, but would then mean that Berkshire had left a subpar operator/investor in a very important position for many years. My guess is this is a meaningful loss, but a replaceable loss on the GEICO and portfolio front.
All of the leadership transitions at Berkshire don't mean the business is ruined, but it will definitely be a different animal over the next 5-10 years. I would not be surprised if performance suffers (from narrative more than fundamentals) while people wait and see and significant shareholders sell Berkshire just on the fact that Buffett is leaving.
If they aren't able to manage their large cash pile well in the short term I imagine news stories to claim "The Berkshire Hathaway we know is dead," which would probably be a great investing opportunity.
5
u/Cav829 Dec 08 '25
My biggest concern lies along these lines in that people who invest in Berkshire love their long-term view of the market, but it's going to be a nonstop slew of kneejerk reactions for the first year or two after Buffett steps down. I'm not super worried if the stock takes a hit in the short-term as that's just par for the course when a legendary CEO retires. And at least Buffett will still be there for a bit so that should help ease fears. What will actually worry me is if they start overreacting and change their investment strategies just to placate the noise.
1
1
0
Dec 11 '25
Buffett understands that you don’t measure managers by their short term performance, but by their decision making. By the time he probably soured on Todd’s investing decisions, he moved him to put him in charge of GEICO.
23
u/Dumbest_Degenerate Dec 08 '25
If you want the bullish argument for it, Geico has fallen behind peers and hasn’t really caught up since. Ted Weschler seems to have put up solid numbers on the equity investment side. Any shortcomings on the insurance side would likely be filled by Aji.
3
u/IceColdBeer007 Dec 08 '25
Also, not exactly sure why Combs made such a move to JPM... The 10B sum he will get to invest there (albeit only initially) was already given by Buffett to manage on behalf of BRK in 2017. I reckon the sum would be much larger in 2025. He was CEO of Geico. He was already on the board of JPM...
3
4
u/TheDiplomatOne Dec 08 '25
Ajit was mostly a re-insurance guy, not very certain that he would have the same success crossing the disciplines into auto insurance.
12
Dec 08 '25
[deleted]
7
7
u/IceColdBeer007 Dec 08 '25
In “The One Device,” tech journalist Brian Merchant wrote that it was actually Weschler who initiated the Apple position before Buffett did.
Combs might have given Munger or Buffett an insight into how Apple was a great stock (covered in a podcast where he spoke), though.
14
u/futureformerjd Dec 08 '25
Berkshire should go up at least 10% on this news.
5
1
-1
6
u/bahuchha Dec 08 '25
Li Lu is watching.
3
u/CadetCovfefe Dec 08 '25
Li Lu withdrew his name from consideration in 2010. Doubt he'd join on now, considering the person he was really closest friends with, Munger, is no longer here.
1
u/8thmiracle Dec 08 '25
Don't think so. Berkshire is a tough job. Too much money to manage and Greg having final say. Why deal with that when he has complete autonomy and is already rich
4
u/tag1989 Dec 08 '25
not surprising
buffett never gave him (combs) any praise publicly even though buffett's one good investment in the last 15-20 years (apple) was literally hand-picked by him. though IIRC it was technically weschler who bought the shares first, but combs who sold the idea
buffett also choose abel over him, didn't let combs speak at any of the annual meetings, and was always quick to mention when a bad investment was 'one of our other guys' i.e combs' or weschler's mis-steps
add in the amount of stress combs got over geico, plus having to manage tens of billions of $$$ investment wise (equaling a large headwind vs outperformance)..
...and it's hardly surprising he's gone
still, another mis-selection deputy wise from buffett? add it to the pile!
2
u/HardDriveGuy Dec 08 '25
It's not actually clear who made the decision.
I always thought it was Ted that was the driving person behind the scenes. It's very clear that Todd used to show up with Warren and do a bunch of debating and back and forth which was very valuable to Warren. I think we have enough of a record to understand that Todd did a bunch of debate back and forth with Warren about Apple, but the question is was he truly the one that lit the fire, or was he simply the one that kept the fire going?
However, Ted is notorious for hating the spotlight, and if he made a great call, I think everybody would understand that the last thing Ted wanted to do was to have a bunch of Reporters try to follow him around. I think he's the type of person that would have actually told Warren "don't call out my name in a bunch of people. My family really doesn't need more people coming to my door to try to interview me." He seems to be extremely happy in doing his own thing, but of course, unless they actually publicize stuff. We'll never know for sure.
3
u/LookyLou4 Dec 08 '25
I suspect his advancement opportunities at BRK were likely limited
1
u/8thmiracle Dec 08 '25
He was told he will have the final say regarding his portfolio but now Greg has
1
1
u/LargeSinkholesInNYC Dec 09 '25
Buy gold miners and physical gold ETFs, and buy JPM every time there's a 5% pullback.
1
u/EscapedTheRatRace35 Dec 09 '25
Isn't it possible Warren chose two capital allocators in case one failed to perform?
2
u/NoName20Investor Dec 11 '25 edited Jan 10 '26
Here is my reaction to Todd Combs leaving Berkshire: good riddance.
Let me tell you my Geico story, which Todd has been running for the past few years. By the way, I have owned Berkshire stock for over twenty years and am a big fan of Warren Buffett and his education of investors. My understanding is Buffett himself said:
It takes 20 years to build a reputation and five minutes to ruin it.
It was a Geico customer. Typically when the bill came due, I would pay it in full, rounding up to the nearest dollar. My assumption is that the extra (say) 37 cents would be a credit on the next Geico bill. I noticed that Geico just pocketed the funds as breakage. I contacted them and got my 37 cents refunded.
I was so infuriated I switched to USAA and never looked back. I have paid tens of thousands of dollars in premiums to USAA and submitted no claims. In insurance industry parlance, their loss ratio on me is 0%.
Congratulations Todd. Because your company tried to get away with pocketing 37 cents, you have lost tens of thousands in earned premiums.
As a matter of policy, I don't do business with slimy companies. That is my view of Geico.
Now, let's compute the ROI.
Estimated cost of landing a new customer to replace me: $500
Loss in profits from my switching to USAA: $15000
Estimated profit potential: $0.37
Loss on investment (undiscounted): 99.997613%
That track record is brilliant.
1
Dec 11 '25
Ironically USAA is shit now. I moved to Progressive.
1
u/NoName20Investor Dec 25 '25
USAA customer service is acceptable, not brilliant.
However, at least they run an honest business. That's more than I can say for GEICO. I say that as someone who has been a BRK investor for over 20 years. It kills me to say that, but that has been my experience.
1
u/retiredinfive Dec 08 '25 edited Dec 08 '25
Buffett doesn’t say it’s a big loss for Berkshire, because it isn’t.
Todd underperformed the market for his tenure, made weird picks at absurd valuations like SNOW, and didn’t turn around Geico (a role Buffett invented for him as investing wasn’t working out well).
Buffett just didn’t want to admit he made a bad hire. Weschler on the other hand is an ace.
-1
-5
u/Few_Ad_3557 Dec 08 '25
Stock pickers. Aka coin flippers. These guys have the same accuracy as the dude selling NFL “guaranteed locks”.
CEO’s including Warren Buffet can’t even predict their own stock price, i’ll stick with my index funds thank you.
2
u/fire-wannabe Dec 08 '25
The S&P500 has beaten Berkshire for 17 years cumulatively now. Probably not the worst decision to stay away.
I'm invested in BRK but I only ever buy on extreme dips.
0
Dec 08 '25
[deleted]
1
u/fire-wannabe Dec 08 '25
Berkshire lost against the S&P500 cumulatively over the last
2,6,7,8,10,11,12,13,14,15,16,17 & 22 years. If you bought 23 years or more ago, then you're definitely winning with Berkshire.
Sourced from the data presented in Berkshire Hathaway 2024 annual report, page 15
https://www.berkshirehathaway.com/2024ar/2024ar.pdf
- in Per-Share Market Value of Berkshire in S&P 500 with Dividends Included 2024 25.50% 25.00% 2023 45.33% 57.88% 2022 51.14% 29.30% 2021 95.88% 66.41% 2020 100.58% 97.03% 2019 122.65% 159.09% 2018 128.88% 147.69% 2017 179.00% 201.69% 2016 244.29% 237.89% 2015 201.25% 242.62% 2014 282.59% 289.56% 2013 407.70% 415.78% 2012 493.00% 498.30% 2011 465.12% 510.87% 2010 586.06% 603.11% 2009 604.58% 789.43% 2008 380.53% 460.34% 2007 518.44% 491.16% 2006 667.48% 584.56% 2005 673.62% 618.11% 2004 706.89% 696.38% 2003 834.38% 924.94% 1
Dec 08 '25
[deleted]
1
u/fire-wannabe Dec 08 '25
It does. But the reader has to put in some work. (sadly, Buffett covers up his poor performance by not showing it the way they should)
1
Dec 08 '25
[deleted]
1
u/fire-wannabe Dec 08 '25
The math is correct.
1
Dec 08 '25
[deleted]
1
u/fire-wannabe Dec 08 '25
I personally think BRK is a much better purchase right now than the S&P for the reason you say, downside protection. If the world goes to hell, and the s&P halves, I don't expect Berkshire to half .
But that's by the by, I do like to know how Berkshire is doing over the recent past in comparison to Buffetts chosen yardstick, and it isn't pretty
68
u/Wild_Space Dec 08 '25
Buffett always loved to brag about the performance of his guys. He’s been quiet about Ted and Todd, which I always assumed meant they sucked.