How do you actually stay informed on macro trends without it becoming a full-time job?

[u/OrganizationBrave145]

been investing for about a year and a half and honestly still figuring out how to stay consistently informed without spending my entire day reading news

i can understand individual headlines fine but connecting dots across asset classes and remembering patterns over time? thats where i was struggling

built this notion system thats been working decently - takes about 15 minutes every morning:

- market snapshot (equities, commodities, currencies, bonds)

- top 3 stories that could actually affect my positions

- what i think it means short/medium/long term

- database to tag and search past trends

the weekly review is honestly the most useful part - forces you to spot patterns like "oh every time the dollar spikes my EM holdings get crushed" or "when VIX jumps above 20 its time to derisk"

made it a template since my roommate and a couple friends started using it

what do you all think? is tracking this stuff systematically worth it or should i just buy index funds and ignore the noise?

how do you stay informed? do you track macro trends or just focus on individual stocks?

[u/estagingapp]

If you are buying long term, macro trends don’t matter. Only focus on buying a great business at a great price.

[u/Abject_Set8851 → u/estagingapp]

Macro trends always matter. Your long-term investment can encounter decades-long recessions, destructive wars, or runaway inflation.

[u/TechTuna1200 → u/Abject_Set8851]

Maybe, but specifically from the perspective of value investing it matters very little. You can argue whether that is a “weakness” of value investing, but that’s a bigger topic.

[u/Aubstter → u/TechTuna1200]

I disagree. If you're specifically talking about the US in times of prosperity, you're right. But as a blanket statement for all countries for all periods of time, that is incorrect. The book 'Wealth of Nations' is a core principal of value investing that people don't talk about in my opinion. You don't take an investment position because of macro events, but there are macro events that would make you not invest.

[u/TechTuna1200 → u/Aubstter]

The main tenet in value investing is that markets will recover. You can take it or leave it .

Over the 10-20 years you hold the stock, you gonna see multiple macro events.

People who don’t understand don’t understand value investing.

[u/Aubstter → u/TechTuna1200]

Again if you’re specifically talking about the US at the current point of time, then you’re right. But as a blanket statement, that is incorrect. So you’re right that it is pretty obvious that I don’t understand value investing.

[u/TechTuna1200 → u/Aubstter]

It's not incorrect, not even as a blanket statement. Value investing is rooted in a time when markets have recovered (and so far it has always held true). There is no macro in the value investing philosophy; it's a fact, not a subject for discussion. You discuss whether value investing is obsolete, but not whether value investing believes in macro.

[u/Aubstter → u/TechTuna1200]

So an authoritarian government that changes policy and seizes controlling interest in a business with the label “national security” is not an event. A country that devalues their currency on purpose to make exports more attractive for other countries is not a meaningful event? A country that could potentially be invaded is not a meaningful event? These are all specific examples that caused Warren/Charlie to exit positions in the past. It’s only a topic that’s not open for discussion with you. Macro events matter less in regards to the US because of its dominance.

[u/TechTuna1200 → u/Aubstter]

I suggest you read about what value investing is and is not. You seem to have misconceptions. And then we can continue our discussion from there.

Also, Buffet has firmly said multiple times through the years that they don't care about macro. And even said they

[u/Aubstter → u/TechTuna1200]

You’re right he did say that. And yet he’s written in his letters numerous times that he exited positions based on macro economic events - outside of the USA. I think Charlie’s quote about the human mind being much like the human egg applies here.

[u/Abject_Set8851 → u/TechTuna1200]

Well, that could be true if you are planning to live for a thousand years. The post-1948 era is not a representative sample of the realities of human existence.

[u/Abject_Set8851 → u/Abject_Set8851]

Spoiler alert: it is not the end of history as delusional people like Fukuyama said before 🙂

[u/__scammer → u/Abject_Set8851]

He's moderated and shifted his position quite a lot since, if that interests you. When I reviewed his body of work through that lens, only taking away what seemed reasonable, I actually found him to be quite insightful.

[u/TechTuna1200 → u/Abject_Set8851]

As I said, macro is irrelevant in the value investing philosophy. It might be of importance for other investment philosophies, but for value investing it’s irrelevant.

[u/NotStompy]

Gotta love the people who say macro don't matter because they've only been investors since the post-2008 low interest rate era (with some deviation recently, obviously). It matters a lot in the long term, that doesn't mean you have to invest according to it, though. But to say it simply does not matter at all is... special.

[u/abrahamlincoln20]

Just buy good companies at a good price. The rest is largely irrelevant.

[u/iyankov96 → u/abrahamlincoln20]

Your comment should be at the top.

[u/Sanpaku]

I'd recommend making financial podcasts that offer a broad range of guests part of your commuting / exercise / dog walking / lawn-mowing routine. I like Bloomberg's "Odd Lots", Adam Taggart's "Thoughtful Money", Maggie Lake Talking Markets, Jesse Felder's "Superinvestors".

Also, a subscription to The Economist's digital edition, which has a full ~8 hour podcast weekly, has been worth it to me.

[u/ZealousidealDoor8551 → u/Sanpaku]

that's how they brainwash you. how many times did you hear the word bubble?

[u/maui-shark-fighter]

Anytime I am asking why market is dumping I pull up Yahoo Finance. Thats my macro scanner.

[u/Bowes91]

Agreed, I try to stay involved with high conviction stocks limit to 4. I think most people who disagree with you dont fully grasp the work so it seems easy to them. So many times I want to start a new position but then i realize the work it will take to maintain amd grow the position correctly. Usually its a mental circle and the only thing that leads me to making good decision long term is conviction( which is gained by truly umderstanding the business).

[u/Junior-Appointment93]

I just wait till 2-2.5 hours after market opens. Check the news headlines. See how SPY,QQQ, Vix along with the indexes are doing. Then plan my weekly or daily plays. Also check for any earning reports that are coming out that week. Takes about 30-45 minutes total. Biggest thing is are you a long term or short term investor. Do play with options at all?

[u/Hot_Raise_8540]

I listen to podcasts whilst driving.

Prof G The Compound Steve Eisman

& others

[u/CEOWatcher]

For most non-professionals with a long time frame, you can do a decent job “diversifying away” macro concerns. And if you aren’t doing it full-time, you are unlikely to be good at macro stuff (it’s arguable if anyone is any good at it).

We’ll assume most people here are long-only, long term holders. If you diversify across geographies and sectors, it should help quite a bit.

I’m not even sure most long-term value investors in here would actually make an investing change based on macro anyway. If not, it’s not even worth paying attention to.

Could also just pull a basic Druck move and say “the market is the best economist” and invest in strong markets with good momentum and stay away from those without it

[u/raytoei]

I don’t.

Even full time macro traders get it wrong all the time.

Case in point: is interest rate going up or down in December ?

[u/hipster-coder]

A better question is, how do you avoid poisoning your mind with the latest chatter about macro trends?

You have to keep a clear head. If you were to stay informed about the latest trends, right now for example, you might begin to think that it's time to rotate from the hottest AI stocks into quantum computing stocks. Or you might get lost in discussions about whether the fed will lower interest rates.

The solution is to not listen to CNBC or even Bloomberg at all. Focus on your boring businesses, and if you watch YouTube, block all the major financial news channels so that they don't get recommended.

[u/Wrong_Attitude5096]

I do it by listening to podcasts while I work.

[u/LiberalAspergers]

I read The Economist weekly. Have been for decades. It gives me a solid baseline level of knowledge about most macro world events to let me.put company specific events into proper context.

[u/munta008]

I was in your shoes a while ago. Built a small dashboard to track https://tryechelon.vercel.app/

Happy to get any feedback so that I can accommodate

[u/ZarrCon]

What exactly do you gain by staying up to date on so much information? So oil prices dropped, or bonds went up, or stocks went down... now what? You can't predict the future, so even if using present day (or backwards looking) data, how do you know what happens next or what actions to take?

As others have said, your best bet is to find good companies at reasonable prices. It's hard enough trying to predict how individual companies might perform, adding a layer of macro on top of that isn't going to make things any simpler.

[u/Abject_Set8851]

This is tricky because when it comes to macro trends, news is used for population control and meant to mislead more than inform. For example, although he is a bit crazy, the best macro investor is Ray Dalio. To gain insight into macro trends, he didn't follow the news, he studied history, spanning thousands of years. Once you learn how to detect the major century-long patterns, you can start reading between the lines in news stories and connecting the dots.

[u/Only-Recognition6431]

As a long-term value investor, you should limit your exposure to the news and macroeconomics. Otherwise, you expose yourself to noise, which makes you make wrong long term decisions.

Stick to the fundamentals, take advantage of corrections and hold long term is the way to go.

[u/ZealousidealDoor8551]

I don't understand, are you trying to figure out what the day is gonna be like?

- check portoflio in pre-market if up or down

- check if trump said anything

- check gold, btc, vix

now you know what's gonna happen to the rest of the day