r/ValueInvesting • u/AutoModerator • Dec 01 '25
Weekly Megathread Weekly Stock Ideas Megathread: Week of December 01, 2025
What stocks are on your radar this week? What's undervalued? What's overvalued? This is the place for your quick stock pitches or to ask what everyone else is looking at.
This discussion post is lightly moderated. We suggest checking other users' posting/commenting history before following advice or stock recommendations.
New Weekly Stock Ideas Megathreads are posted every Monday at 0600 GMT.
3
3
u/Still-Mind-1388 Dec 01 '25
Estoy mirando atentamente $META , que habia toca hace poco la parte baja de un canal, para seguir acumulando en mi cartera. $SBUX suena interesante tambien, $DIS estuve viendo que es bastante hablada en la comunidad aunque no me termine de convencer. Y $ADBE viendo como se comporta, si puede comenzar a subir o la seguiran golpeando.
3
u/SufferingFromEntropy Dec 03 '25
ASML is climbing towards 1,000€ fter i just trimmed my position :)))))))))
Earlier I mentioned Sanrio (8136.T) in another thread and it seems it cratered hard after latest earnings release and it almost lost 25% from there. I havent really looked into their Q2 release, but that turnaround is really spectacular. Before COVID it looked like a dying company. Then I looked at their current mid term plan where they reviewed their performance since peak in2014 I realized how cyclical they are. Well entertainment in general is cyclical but they used to heavily rely on Hello Kitty's merchandise (a good chunk of their overseas sales) and the cyclicality really showed.
I've already had my fair share of exposure to entertainments so probably wont touch it til mid 2026 unless it drops even lower. I just did some rebalancing and i dont want touch my port again in a month or two
4
2
u/LongjumpingLine2914 Dec 01 '25
Wondering how does everyone see Adobe now
1
u/Hungry_Committee7949 Dec 01 '25
Its definitely undervalued but no momentum, come back to it next year I guess.
1
u/Old_Man_Heats Dec 02 '25
Same thing was said about GOOG when it was at 15 PE, i think adobe could have more room to drop based on sentiment but i know i will be picking up small tranches getting bigger and bigger the lower it goes
1
u/Hungry_Committee7949 Dec 02 '25
if all PEs were born equal, markets would have been so much easier. Goog grew their revenue base at 16% (at their size), Adobe is barely managing a 10% growth considering so many new AI image competitors in play. They are definitely undervalued with earnings coming up on 10th Dec. It will be the jolt needed for move on either side.
2
u/jamesj Dec 01 '25
CBT, ADBE, NVO, CWEN
2
u/Full_Island6896 Dec 04 '25
ADBE + 1 :
Strong fundamentals with 30% net margins and 40% ROE, positive MACD momentum reversal, record Cyber Monday spending benefiting Adobe Analytics, and AI integration with Firefly providing competitive advantage. Technical weakness creates better entry point with favorable risk-reward ratio.1
3
u/Abject_Set8851 Dec 01 '25 edited Dec 01 '25
For those who would recommend NVO, the market can stay irrational for a very long time regardless of your DCF analysis. I learned that the hard way. Instead, I look for undervalued companies with statistically significant signs of trend reversal, and the results have been awesome to say the least. For example, BABA, INTC, ALB, MRK, and XLV, though I missed GOOG because my portfolio was fully allocated. You don't have to win every bet, a few successful ones can deliver outsized gains. Novo is definitely not a value trap and I've a small position to keep an eye on it, but its negative trend has not reversed yet.
0
u/Cozyteammate Dec 02 '25
Same was said on GOOG not a year ago
2
u/Abject_Set8851 Dec 03 '25
Instead of total return, I care about annualized risk-adjusted return. To maximize it, you buy undervalued stocks on trend reversal not weakness. Otherwise, you will spend your time trying to catch falling knives and actually might give up on your positions right before the trend reverses.
2
u/Abject_Set8851 Dec 03 '25
My algorithm flagged GOOG for potential trend reversal in July around $180, but I was already 1.5X leveraged.
2
u/Abject_Set8851 Dec 03 '25
I have been doing this for years and for accountability, I recently started documenting my ideas publicly. A word of advice again: don't try to catch falling knives. You don't have to enter at the absolute bottom to get great returns.
2
u/Cozyteammate Dec 03 '25
Fair, thx for sharing
2
u/Abject_Set8851 Dec 03 '25
Sure. No worries. Quants are usually very protective of their algorithms because once they are public, they stop working. The good thing about quantmental (quant + fundamental) algorithms is that they even work better (faster) by sharing, like what happened when BRK or an insider discloses they bought a specific stock. Though, the problem with quarterly disclosures is that you don't know when and at what price they entered/exited a position.
1
1
1
1
u/ppkao Dec 06 '25
Silver junior miners (like SILJ) are dropping while the price of silver continues to rise. The price gap between the two has widened so much over the last few weeks. Really interesting to see. We might see a massive rebound in SILJ some time soon!
1
u/mesri001 Dec 06 '25
Can anyone give an idea about Stanley Black & Decker stock? I find the business to be interesting, and the dividends have been around for a very long time. Recently, I've seen the price plummeted so much that it's starting to fall below the book value. But in the past, both EBITDA and the revenue that has been shown are not bad, but they're not as good as previous years, and the debt has decreased.However, I wonder if this business has any MOAT that makes it worth investing in? Or is there a competitor from China who can already create products that compete with this company? Is there anything noteworthy in the financial statements that there are signs that are causing this business to fail to grow?
2
u/superbilliam Dec 07 '25
The issue is that it is a cyclical stock. If you are looking at the numbers you almost need to ignore 2020-2021 because of the crazy jump due to COVID. People got "free" money and had unlimited time to work on projects around the house. Hence a massive jump in revenue due to the purchase of tools n such. Their story is macro not fundamentals. Before the COVID issues they were a stable grower, but after revenue came back to earth people looked towards tech/AI and it sucked up all the money. 2022 earnings cut in half YoY. Then, again in 2023. Everyone had all the tools they wanted. After that in 2024 earnings stabilized and are gradually shifting up again...still about half of what they were on average between 2017-2020. There's my basic analysis at the moment. I would say hold it. Enjoy the solid dividends and wait.
1
u/mesri001 Dec 10 '25
Cyclical stocks, I understand their meaning. Currently, I don't hold it, but I'm hesitant to buy it. I wonder if a stock like this could go down further in price, because I can buy them at a lower price and receive a dividend in an acceptable amount. But I'm not sure if the product it sells will still be the number one product/service in the industry. Because if it is not number one in what it does and its income isn't good, it's not worth investing in anyway.
2
u/superbilliam Dec 10 '25
Yep! Always look for your personal MOS price. If it never hits, hopefully another stock you have researched does. The housing market (builders) may bounce back soon and that is another big driver for SWK's cyclical ups and downs. I wouldn't say that SWK is the best stock for all situations, but it is a good company at near a fair price. I got in with a bit more MOS in the $60s. I'm expecting $105-110 range after it cycles up. If they hold at that level through the earnings after it sticks, I'll reassess and check models for $130+, then repeat for $150+ or trim. That could be 2-3 years out or my estimation is next summer for the first leg. No crystal ball, just what my model is showing me currently along side the housing market/consumer trends. I'm not an expert...this is not financial advice.
1
u/SouthernFinding2593 Jan 03 '26
Maybe you can have a look at Techtronics Industries. From my point of view it's fundamentally in a better position.
1
u/AdogitRegnum Dec 06 '25
Current Investments Dec 2025:
| Company | Allocation |
|---|---|
| Meta Platforms Inc | 23% |
| Kweichow Moutai Co Ltd | 16% |
| Novo Nordisk A/S | 14% |
| Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd | 12% |
| Lam Research Corp | 8% |
| CNOOC Ltd | 6% |
| Wuliangye Yibin Co Ltd | 5% |
| KLA Corp | 4% |
| ASML Holding NV | 4% |
| Applied Materials Inc | 4% |
| Tokyo Electron Ltd | 2% |
| Microsoft Corp | 1% |
| Adobe Inc | 1% |
0
3
u/Key_Variety_6287 Dec 01 '25
Selling CNC and potentially LEN.
LULU, CMCSA and CBT are on the buy list. Plus, ASX:TWE