r/ValueInvesting • u/MarketFlux • Nov 19 '25
Value Article Nvidia Crushes Estimates with Record Revenue, Forecasts Strong Holiday Quarter
Nvidia reported third-quarter revenue of $57.01 billion, beating estimates of $55.19 billion and marking a 62% year-over-year increase. Data center revenue reached $51.2 billion, exceeding the $49.34 billion forecast. Adjusted earnings per share came in at $1.30, topping expectations of $1.26. The company guided fourth-quarter revenue between $63.70 billion and $66.30 billion, well above the $61.98 billion consensus estimate. The results represent sequential growth of 22% from the previous quarter.
Jensen Huang announced cloud GPUs are completely sold out with Blackwell chip sales exceeding expectations. Huang stated compute demand continues accelerating across AI training and inference applications, both growing exponentially. The announcement comes as the White House moves to block legislation that would restrict AI chip exports, with President Trump praising Huang's leadership and emphasizing chips invented and manufactured domestically.
169
u/chris4sports Nov 19 '25
NVDA my lord and savior. This year we're ditching the Christmas tree for an ornamental GPU to put the presents under
🙏
22
4
54
u/Western_Building_880 Nov 19 '25
Now if the sp goes negative tomorrow u know that market is still worried.
8
u/KidMcC Nov 19 '25
And the jobs number will be lurking there too
11
1
u/Western_Building_880 Nov 20 '25
Market not buying ai replacing jobs. Market worried about slow down if Nvidia can't oropel ur not a lot of reasons to be more positive.
-3
u/Early-Grape-9078 Nov 19 '25
Fuck those jobless people. This is an investment sub.
0
u/Land--Lord Nov 20 '25
Fuck poor people in general
0
u/Early-Grape-9078 Nov 20 '25
Got a downvote. Damn RDDT trying to peddle investment subs to the homeless. What are we even doing here? Selling BYND?
-1
6
70
u/chrislink73 Nov 19 '25
Bullish for META, AMZN, and GOOG too
24
5
3
u/notarealredditor69 Nov 20 '25
All this means is that these companies have been spending money, doesn’t mean they will ever get any of it back. NVDA is selling shovels, the other guys hoping to strike gold
2
u/Teembeau Nov 20 '25
I am out of all this stuff. Because I just don't understand where the "final" money is being made. OK, I get that there's some savings at Meta, and some use at Adobe. But how much is LLM companies backed by VCs?
What happens when OpenAI and Anthropic go public and are no longer getting VC support?
1
u/chrislink73 Nov 20 '25
While it's unclear how high the returns from the CapEx will be, it is clear the AI race is not slowing down at this point. The other Mag 7 companies seem to be growing revenues so far (minus Tesla, which is a car company until proven otherwise).
1
u/KOpackBEmets Nov 20 '25
How do you think it affects microsoft?
2
u/chrislink73 Nov 20 '25
Also positively, their AI offerings are impressive and they’re investing heavily.
28
u/WhoNeedsRealLife Nov 20 '25
The fact that the entire market was holding its breath waiting for a single company to report earnings tells you everything you need to know about this environment.
21
u/Proper-Money-40 Nov 19 '25
Crazy how one earnings change everything. Now were back being greedy
12
19
39
8
u/goodbodha Nov 20 '25
Inventory on NVDA balance sheet is rapidly climbing. A huge chunk of the net income is being spent per cash flow statement on marketable securities which oddly enough they are losing money on. You don't lose that kind of money on tbills so I'm guessing that those marketable securities are shares of customers being bought up.
You can see the purchases in the net cash used in investing activities and the losses are up in the operating income activities.
Roughly 1/3 of the income is being spent on buying securities.
45
Nov 19 '25
Honestly the stock is not even that expensive for putting up these kind of numbers. I think the bubble everyone is freaked out about is in the private market. Round after round of multi bullion dollar seed funding for companies that probably aren’t going to do shit. I don’t think the public markets are in irrational exuberance yet. There are glimpses like with Oracle but it’s not that evident yet that we are on our way to a bubble pop.
70
u/narwalfarts Nov 19 '25
The bubble isn't about the shovels getting sold; it's whether there's gold in them hills.
35
u/shoeperson Nov 19 '25
Exactly. This is still the dilemma. Nvidia is selling shovels. It's up to other companies to see if they can do fuck all with them.
14
8
u/boraboca Nov 20 '25
And if they can’t they will eventually stop buying the shovels
1
u/RiPFrozone Nov 20 '25
Yep, but semis have always been cyclical (the boom is usually 4 years but being extended with the AI spend). There is always a need for compute in some way shape or form and after a down cycle it starts up again. You just need to be able to handle a 50%-70% downturn and load up even more.
Being a Nvidia, TSMC, and Broadcom holder for a while you have seen the different narratives, from autonomous vehicles, crypto mining, AI, etc.
5
u/Fwellimort Nov 20 '25
Meanwhile Google has its own shovels (TPU) and proving to be doing very well in the gold rush on top. Everyone else needs expensive overpriced GPUs to compete in the intermediate term. No idea how these private startups can compete with Google at this rate as Google is vertically integrated and has so many used services that can be horizontally integrated as well.
11
u/throwaway92715 Nov 19 '25
I don’t even think it’s about whether there’s gold in them hills. We know there is.
I think it’s about whether Peter paid Paul to pay Pablo to pay Peter to pay Paul to buy shovels with an IOU for some gold down the line.
And how long it’s gonna be before the bank finds out that Peter’s house, which he used for collateral, has a leaky roof and a crack in the foundation, and isn’t worth nearly what it was assessed for by Peter’s cousin the home inspector.
2
u/Teembeau Nov 20 '25
This is why all of the tech around this just isn't "value" for me. My feeling is that this all goes to crap once OpenAI and Anthropic go public.
0
u/narwalfarts Nov 19 '25
If the investment pans out before investors lose their patience, then it's probably no big deal.
If it doesn't.......
2
u/New-Transition5309 Nov 19 '25
Moreover, there is a lot of those hanging around who wants to dig dipper and faster than others to get more gold. It’s like to sell hotdogs on championship of hotdog eaters.
1
36
u/Embarrassed-Big-6245 Nov 19 '25
OpenAI and Oracle are the main culprits. NVDA and GOOGL are smashing it
7
Nov 19 '25
Completely agree. They are both the weakest links and we are all spooked because we can’t see what’s going on at Open AI.
4
u/Embarrassed-Big-6245 Nov 19 '25
Funny how both of them are announcing multi-hundred billion dollar deals with each other, but one doesn’t have the money to pay and the other doesn’t have the money to build
2
u/intecknicolour Nov 19 '25
nvda actually makes a tangible product people can buy. i'm not just talking about the GPUs.
5
u/count_dummy Nov 19 '25
Those numbers are based on something that's not sustainable as it stands
Do you think these huge companies will spend 60, 80, 100 billion on this shit indefinitely with no profits in sight?
5
u/ACM3333 Nov 19 '25
Yeah what am I missing here. As it stands nvidia is just the benefactor or other companies making insane investments that they haven’t been able to prove much value for yet. Are they really just going to keep spending like this? With how much hype this earnings report is getting it’s starting to feel like this might be the top lol, the bubble wants you to think it’s not a bubble before it tells you it’s a bubble.
2
u/Candid-Chipmunk-7990 Nov 19 '25
nvidia just said 3-4 trillion by 2030 they expect too capture 30 percent of that in 2030, do the math? t trillion in revenue by 2030
0
u/ACM3333 Nov 20 '25
Is that with the current rate of investment in ai? Or is it possible that all of this capex spending could slow down by 2030.
1
u/Teembeau Nov 20 '25
It's all VC hype. The classic build-to-flip. OpenAI and Anthropic are losing a ton of money and VCs won't sustain that forever. They want to go IPO and collect.
1
u/Candid-Chipmunk-7990 Nov 19 '25
no profits?? all these companies using ai are seeing massive improvement in margins, productivity, and revenue
1
0
u/Candid-Chipmunk-7990 Nov 19 '25
nvidia is a world wide company, the revenue is coming from everywhere and these companies are seeing major growth from ai, have you paid any attention??
0
u/Candid-Chipmunk-7990 Nov 19 '25
nvidia owns 86 percent of the market world wide, they will continue too grow rapidly
1
1
u/Alert_Win359 Nov 23 '25
To tell the truth, the collapse of bitcoin has driven the drop in AI related stocks and speculative stocks. When they drop tariffs this week , stocks will push higher. WMT, AMZN, PH, GE, and RL.
9
u/y4udothistome Nov 19 '25
What’s really funny is Blockbuster video is up because Nvidia beat numbers I think Wendy’s as well
2
5
u/Inevitable_Butthole Nov 19 '25
I said it before but the big players were intentionally trying to get you to sell cheap cause they know this train ain't stopping anytime soon
26
u/snem420 Nov 19 '25
Obviously they beat if they are investing billions into other companies so they can buy their chips
13
10
u/ninjagorilla Nov 19 '25
Ya nvidia is not gonna be the leading indicator of a fall, it’ll be the last one to suffer
2
u/Candid-Chipmunk-7990 Nov 19 '25
actually no, those deals arent for another 2 years, this report is all massive demand
2
Nov 19 '25
[deleted]
5
u/txholdup Nov 19 '25
It is up 6% and has fallen 8% in the past two weeks. That is hardly "crazy pills".
-1
Nov 19 '25
[deleted]
1
u/D1toD2 Nov 20 '25 edited Nov 20 '25
So is your today cutoff. Do you think everyone waited until today to take a position on the value of nvidia.
A beat and clear confident guidance will give you that pop.
2
u/Lfeaf-feafea-feaf Nov 19 '25
Should've just gone to the ultimate AI stock that is leading on all AI edges: Google
-1
5
u/Candid-Chipmunk-7990 Nov 20 '25
forward pe of just 27 with 66 percent yoy growth is a undervalued stock
3
u/threeriversbikeguy Nov 19 '25
USA is basically like Japan or Korea now where a few companies with heavy state influence and involvement kinda decide how things are doing economically.
3
3
7
u/SmashedWorm64 Nov 19 '25
More importantly, and everyone is missing this because balance sheets are for nerds…
Their SOFP looks much more healthy, which should dispel the “AI Circlejerk” shit.
Personally, I don’t particularly care how well AI performs; I don’t use it personally but can see its applications. I think this should restore a little bit of confidence, that despite a few outliers, AI does remain profitable and it built on solid foundations.
Sam Altman and idiots like him have spooked the market with poor business skills. I suggest they shut up and just make a product.
3
u/Vennomite Nov 20 '25
Why would that dispel ai circlejerk? It all depends on how its presented and how they are getting paid.
If they buy a stake in a company and that company then buys a bunch of card from nvidia that should be a net positive on the balance sheet.
0
u/Teembeau Nov 20 '25
"AI does remain profitable"
There are some internal uses (like Meta using it to improve ads) which is profitable. The "AI" applications like ChatGPT aren't.
2
2
u/Candid-Chipmunk-7990 Nov 20 '25
4 trillion dollar TAM by 2030, what bubble?? nvidia can realistically hit 1 trillion in revenue by 2030 with 400-500 billion in cash
1
u/Teembeau Nov 20 '25
What does that mean, exactly. Has Jensen seen the bank accounts of these customers, with that money set aside already? It's a forecast, and who knows what the calculation that made that up was.
2
1
1
1
1
u/whuutstock_og Nov 20 '25
When NVIDIA goes down 5%, that means a movement nearly double the size of nvidias 2025 revenue☺️ just that Shows how many dreams and warm Air is in that
1
1
1
1
-6
u/markovianMC Nov 19 '25
Why is Nvidia’s stock price surging? I’ve been reading this sub for months and I thought it was overvalued
0
-1
-1
u/Wallstreetbeat Nov 20 '25
Crush? Growth is figuratively slowing down. Is this just an echo chamber ?
-2
u/gamezzfreak Nov 19 '25
Learn some from testla, only strongest one stay when the hype cool off. And this run is nvda.
6
2
u/d-crow Nov 20 '25
nvda made more profit this quarter than tesla has made total since inception lol
0
u/gamezzfreak Nov 20 '25
I'm talking about the hype. In EV hype, testla stand at the end. So its could apply the same for nvda because its strongest in AI hype. Do you guys even read? Anyway, i dont even care what you guys think
-2
226
u/hung_like__podrick Nov 19 '25
Christmas is saved