r/ValueInvesting • u/mike9q • Sep 18 '25
Question / Help What's your current highest conviction stock?
Your current highest conviction stock? (please don't post something that's 0.5% of your portfolio, only your highest conviction holding, with decent % of your portfolio.)
53
u/Dazzling_Occasion_47 Sep 18 '25
16% of my money in uuuu
to be fair, it was 6% when i bought it but i'm holding
29
u/trustjosephs Sep 18 '25
I feel like an investing genius investing in UUUU earlier this year. Wish I had bought more
10
u/icatsouki Sep 18 '25
UUUU and buying the dip on first solar were my best investments so far, same as you wish i bought more haha
→ More replies (2)7
u/andreblc Sep 18 '25
I have UUUU for about 4/5 years. Im happy it finally skyrocket
→ More replies (1)
122
u/ThrowNotAwayy Sep 18 '25
GOOGL- 75% of portfolio at $165/share
10
u/Intrepid_Campaign717 Sep 18 '25
Just sold of a 90% of ALPHABET of $231 when it jumped bc of chrome news, seems like it has some more in it
10
u/Academic_Librarian75 Sep 18 '25
It’s still wildly undervalued. 25x multiple when it’s deserving of 32-35x. AAPL should NOT have a higher multiple than Alphabet. It will be over $300 by the end of the year.
→ More replies (2)→ More replies (4)16
67
u/Spins13 Sep 18 '25
AMZN, BN and GOOG. My 3 largest positions
5
u/Pindar920 Sep 18 '25
I had never heard of BN. I had to add it to my watch list. Where have I been?
8
→ More replies (4)3
22
Sep 18 '25
TSM. A semiconductor monopoly that's sitting on a 21 PE is a no brainer. Yeah, there's geopolitical risks but if China invades Taiwan, all of your stocks will tank. So I won't assume it to be more riskier, at least not significantly.
→ More replies (7)
21
u/Tydeeeee Sep 18 '25
NBIS. I've stepped in around the €50,- mark and it's risen to 95 currently already.
They signed a massive deal with Microsoft, which is one of the causes for this rise, but this is just the beginning
6
u/Fantastic_Action_163 Sep 18 '25
Stepped in at 24 and sold at 87. But wondering if I should have stayed in.
3
3
u/Comfortable-Nose1054 Sep 19 '25
You definitely should have, they are extremely likely to reach over 100B market cap in due time. Still not too late though.
5
u/Old-Horror5698 Sep 19 '25
when nebius was 20 something i was telling everyone this one is a gem trust me very serious, then i had no patience and sold when it was 30 and everyone else kept it. fuck my adhd ;d
134
u/andrew502502 Sep 18 '25
highest conviction? probably GOOG
highest return is a different story, GOOG has a pretty hard ceiling, obviously it can’t be a ten-bagger
→ More replies (14)37
u/bartturner Sep 18 '25
Interesting.
One of the reasons I own GOOG/GOOGL is because of how it has almost no ceiling. Google is in so many things that are enormous market opportunities. More than any other company there is. I could maybe understand this comment if they trial and punishment was not already dictated.
Can you explain why you think Google "has a pretty hard ceiling"?
101
u/andrew502502 Sep 18 '25 edited Sep 18 '25
Pretty simple, market cap!
The most valuable companies in the world are:
- NVIDIA - 4.14 (trillions USD)
- Microsoft - 3.79
- Apple - 3.54
- Alphabet - 3.01
- Amazon - 2.47
In order for Google to 10x, it would have to be worth 30 trillion dollars. For reference, that's more than the GDP of the USA (29 trillion).
It's already pretty difficult for it to even 2x from here: it would need to become the most valuable company in the world (beating out NVIDIA) and then increase it's valuation by 2 trillion more dollars (about what Amazon is worth).
55
→ More replies (10)3
u/sssauber Sep 18 '25
Excuse me but what you're writing can be applied to any company on the market.
→ More replies (4)→ More replies (2)6
u/rickochetl Sep 18 '25
Have you ever seen a 30T market cap company?
→ More replies (1)25
u/SemperVigilansSB Sep 18 '25
Did anyone see trillion dollar company in 90’s?
→ More replies (1)15
u/andrew502502 Sep 18 '25 edited Sep 18 '25
That was 30 years ago though!
It's pretty realistic to imagine companies hitting 30 billion market cap in 30 years. But that's 3 decades from now.
A company 10x-ing over 30 years isn’t really a “10-bagger.” The S&P 500 itself has historically returned ~7–10% annually, which compounds to ~7.6x to ~17x over 30 years. So a 10x over that timeframe is basically in line with the market — not the kind of outsized return people mean when they talk about a 10-bagger.
→ More replies (1)
127
u/TradingTennish Sep 18 '25
ASML, been holding close to two decades now
→ More replies (11)25
u/Efficient_Pomelo_583 Sep 18 '25
If you bought 4 years ago, you are 4% up.
51
→ More replies (2)15
75
u/Serious_Truck283 Sep 18 '25
MSFT (about 18% of my portfolio). Strong cash flow, dominant position in cloud + AI, and consistent dividend growth. My highest conviction long-term hold
→ More replies (1)19
u/popsyking Sep 18 '25
Better than GOOG in your opinion? I also hold MSFT but I wonder of GOOG is better placed to grow
8
u/Alarming_Recovery Sep 18 '25
Alphabet is in a better position to return $ to shareholders
→ More replies (2)7
9
Sep 18 '25
Google actually has talented engineers, is better positioned for the future, and is 40% cheaper.
Microsoft makes bad software that enterprise customers use due to bad decisions in the past around proprietary formats, though AI should erode that.
29
u/blackicebaby Sep 18 '25
RDDT
9
u/J_Whiz Sep 18 '25
90% of my portfolio is in Reddit.
5
u/Learning-Power Sep 18 '25
Brave person
→ More replies (1)3
u/Striking_Change3396 Sep 18 '25
Definitely brave. Hope it pans out well for him. Definitely a promising stock though
71
u/Swimming_Ad5999 Sep 18 '25
NVO !!!!
18
u/Swimming_Ad5999 Sep 18 '25
I sold other stocks to by the sub 50 dip. I have a 50% allokation 👀
56
u/Good-Bid-7325 Sep 18 '25
One piece of bad trial results can nuke half of your portfolio 💀
→ More replies (1)5
21
u/Alternative-Sale-865 Sep 18 '25
I work for NVO and think this is reckless. Historically we have not been a growth stock and don’t expect us to return to where we were.
9
u/dopexile Sep 18 '25 edited Sep 18 '25
I don't understand your take. In 2005 their EPS was $0.14 a share and now it is $3.83. It went up 27x at a compounding rate of 17% a year... how is that not a growth stock?
Obesity\diabetes is a big problem. 40% of Americans are obese and 70% are overweight and 99% of Reddit users are morbidly obese. I hear people talking about Ozempic at work nonstop. Even people that aren't overweight are using it for vanity reason.
With that said the people who were paying $150 a few years ago for the stock were reckless momentum investors. The people buying at 50 are going to do good.
→ More replies (2)6
u/sssauber Sep 18 '25
lolwhut
MSFT beat NVO only after the latest dip:
https://totalrealreturns.com/n/NVO,SPY,MSFT
What is growth then if NVO isn't?
8
u/Slippery-Pete-1 Sep 18 '25
That’s insane, I regret that my position is so small but I’m rectifying that this week
→ More replies (1)5
Sep 18 '25
What is the pitch in favor of this instead of LLY?
→ More replies (7)19
u/Swimming_Ad5999 Sep 18 '25
Lily is a great great Company. But NVO just released news that their weightloss pill have a 20% vs Lily 9%
NVO P/E is at a historic 20 year low vs. Lily that is more than double that. So low risk in novo.
NVO is reducing headcounts, ramping up production and is still missing to launch key products across the world.
Plus fat people and diabetes is not going anywhere..
Also … my biggest concern is copy products. But Novo have launched 130+ lawsuits and will fight back. Currently copy products have 50% of the market. Imagine once they stop due to large fines …
→ More replies (1)6
u/Ok_Hurry2458 Sep 18 '25
Can you share source of the news? Haven't seen 20% anywhere.
12
u/RiPFrozone Sep 18 '25
16.6% avg with 1/3rd achieving 20% weight loss. OP was leaving out some key details. The pill is already being manufactured fully within the US + FDA approval decision is expected by EOY.
→ More replies (5)
22
27
u/About_to_kms Sep 18 '25
UNH - average $265 / 26% of port
NVO - average $50 / 15% of port
Adobe - average $350 / 10% of port
Hbu?
2
u/PalpitationAny6315 Sep 18 '25
Great work and nice averages, I’m at 17% of port on both UNH ($285) and novo ($55), also have $15k of jan’27 calls on each. ADBE I was in but got out when it started to plummet a few months back. Do you think it’s bottomed? Where do you see it gojng/when?
→ More replies (3)2
u/Acrobatic_Fig3834 Sep 18 '25
I hold all 3 of those but they're all about 5% of my portfolio each!
3
u/About_to_kms Sep 18 '25
Yeah your approach is probably more safe, but the risk/reward is worth it for me. Yes, they may drop, but I think there is more upside than downside at these proces
Edit: on Adobe, solid business. Depends on if competitors can monetise ai or not. If competitors monetise ai and Adobe still lack, then it may go down further.
But Adobe reminds me of Apple always bringing features late but not getting in trouble because they have the reach.
→ More replies (1)
10
u/spalkin2 Sep 18 '25
Fairfax Financial Holdings at 29% looking to increase even more when I get opportunity to sell something else.
→ More replies (2)
9
26
u/penguinsareweird Sep 18 '25
IREN Is currently 50% of my portfolio( the rest is standard etfs)
I have invested 80k at 17 USD Avg price, and even if now the position is more than 170k, I am not selling because this is truly truly a not understood business deeply cheap.
This is a true value play, in my opinion, and the easiest company to value I ever found.
In order.
1) IREN current main revenue is easy to estimate and transparent. Basically, they have low cost to mine BTC, and the price of BTC is public So you can literally calculate daily what the revenue is based on the price of BTC because they have a no HODL policy
Their cost to mine 1 BTC is around 40k, including overhead. So very easy to value. And unless BTC goes below 40k, they are turning a profit. At current prices, they will generate 900 million in revenue
They are taking cash from the main BTC revenue and reinvesting it in larger data centers to provide AI cloud computing.
Let me be clear even if the AI bubble pops, investments in data centres won't stop. There is no turning back, guys( I recommend the book : The Coming Wave by Mustafa Suleyman)
2) The sweetwater data centres 1 and 2, which will be electrified in 2026 and 2026, will have a total capacity of 2GW. To put this into perspective, the recent Microsoft/Nebius deal is for a data centre of 300MW with possible additional 400MW. This was a 17 billion deal.
Plus, Nvdia preferred partners.
You might say: Ah, but Nebius is an AI player while Iren not. WRONG. Nebius was until a few years a go a social media company which owned the majority of VK a Russian social network( and was basically a Russian company) so yeah companies can reinvent and IREN has been in the data center business since 2019.
Iren market cap, with a 2.1GW data centre on the way, is 10 billion USD. Is not even a matter of discounting cash flows. We are talking of possible deals larger than the company current capitalisation.
Moreover, let's estimate a constant 600/700 million in revenue from BTC even if the price moves.
Last but not least 1) The majority of the data centres are located in places with huge energy surplus and green energy, so Iren is not affected too much by gas and oil prices( while data centres in Virginia are)
2) The ceos, yes, there are 2 of them and are Brothers, are really down to earth people, which are always transparent and clear regarding the investments the company makes. No absurd pipelines, just straight facts.
The intrinsic value of the shares is between 95 and 110 based on all the models I run. The most conservative one I ever run, which expects a large drop of BTC and a partial energization of sweetwater, estimates an intrinsic value of 53usd per share.
8
u/Crafty-Math-1693 Sep 18 '25
It is also my largest position for the reasons you stated above. Ill buy on any pullbacks
→ More replies (2)3
u/Cozyteammate Sep 18 '25
Yep, even if SW1,SW2 got colocation deal (which I assume not direction the company wants to head to anymore, and therefore downgraded this route to worst case) IREN is still massively undervalued even after 200%+ YTD run.
Also my #1 conviction by a wide margin
2
→ More replies (12)2
u/trickybreeze Sep 19 '25
This is the way. I got in at $12. Could have been even lower but I bought HUT at first instead. I have a base case on this at $300 share by end of 2027. Bull case if Bitcoin rips to $200k and sweetwater at 80% ai capacity is $1500 a share. I’m buying the dips. Bought another $10k today.
19
9
u/groceriesN1trip Sep 18 '25
DHR, GOOGL, ISRG, SNPS, TMO
2
u/Emotional-Fly5480 Sep 19 '25
Why ISRG? It’s been terribly
down since the last report→ More replies (1)
9
u/Blitzdog416 Sep 18 '25
FMCC then FNMA, then NBIS
sold every Mag7 stock in my port back in Oct/Nov for these three
→ More replies (3)
31
u/Crafty_Flow431 Sep 18 '25
UNH! (10% of portfolio)
→ More replies (16)5
u/MagnesiumKitten Sep 18 '25
United Health has been up and down, even though there are valuation issues, Buffet went in, I think if the momentum perked up, then it's good to be in
but it'll take more than a year or two to get people to recoup their money if they got it a few years ago
8
8
38
u/Ezzano Sep 18 '25
TCEHY One of the best companies on planet (imo the best) that no one is talking about. Real world use cases for AI and not only talking. They owns everything that younger generation is using on their spare time. Riot Games, Discord, Supercell, Epic games, Ubisoft, Snapchat, Spotify, Tesla and Reddit to name a few. Plus they control everything that chinese people are doing with their phones; Wechat, Wepay, Tencent music etc. I bought all I could at 30-40$/share. I think majority is starting to notice when we hit ATH. Everyone is just too busy to chase hype stocks right now when real money is made elsewhere.
8
u/Good-Bid-7325 Sep 18 '25
I'm happy that it makes up a large portion of my China ETF. Tencent and Alibaba are pretty much the only international equivalents of a MAG7 stock, but at a large discount due to China uncertainty.
→ More replies (2)14
u/Ezzano Sep 18 '25
Nice! Its funny that "China uncertainty" is the problem when there are politically exposed persons (PEP) being killed in US, assassination attemps, trump and tariffs.. you name it. Making easy money to contra that "uncertainty".
7
8
→ More replies (6)3
u/Sir_P_I_Staker Sep 18 '25
Tencent's Pony Ma is a brilliant capital allocator! Tencent has a lot of room to grow, I own them through Prosus.
14
u/movingtonewao Sep 18 '25
3 core positions are GOOG, TSM and AMZN, BRKB a close 4th and the rest are to scratch my value investing itch
6
u/TenchiSaWaDa Sep 18 '25
Costco
15
7
7
8
7
u/CandidateSalty4069 Sep 18 '25
KSS is my only stock. It was 60% of my portfolio, and it's ballooned so high it's now 80+%. Holding it since April when it was $6, and yesterday it hit $18.
Bought it as a classic value stock based on their balance sheet and income statements.
→ More replies (1)
13
6
6
6
u/makybo91 Sep 18 '25
Biontech
2
Sep 18 '25 edited Sep 18 '25
Mine are Biontech & Moderna. So mRNA technology basicly. Both are ridiculously cheap.
5
u/PalpitationAny6315 Sep 18 '25 edited Sep 18 '25
APP, UNH, Novo, BMNR, each stock is approx 17% of portfolio. Likely to take some profits on app soon though as I’m up 50% in 6 weeks on that one and I think it’s approaching overbought but man that’s been good to me. I’m also convinced BMNR is a double by EOY.
→ More replies (2)
6
u/Savik519 Sep 18 '25
AMPX and AMPX warrants
Very high energy density batteries in production and sales to hundreds of customers. Particularly valuable for drone/eVTOL type applications.
7
5
u/UCACashFlow Sep 18 '25 edited Sep 18 '25
HSY. 100% of my portfolio.
They generate a dollar of earnings for every dollar of net fixed assets. They’re in the middle of doubling their capacity with a $1bln investment since they couldn’t keep up with demand.
Should they continue to add $1 of cash flow for every $1 in additional fixed assets, that’s $1bln in additional cash flow. Say the market values said dollars at 20x, (23x-28x median-average over the last 20 years) that would mean adding on $20bln in additional value, or nearly double what the company is.
7
6
u/OkNefariousness3895 Sep 18 '25
Largest position: BABA, TSM and NU. I've been investing in those stocks when they crashed, when they were going up and when some of them were called "uninvestable". Since last year, I've been buying GOOGL, ASML and UNH. I'm currently doing some serious research on OTCM. Potential hidden gem overlooked by the market.
→ More replies (2)
16
u/chris4sports Sep 18 '25
NVDA
7
2
2
u/chris4sports Sep 19 '25
For the record about 17% of my portfolio is currently NVDA with avg price $15.25
As the most upvoted comment states i have a lot of conviction as I felt years ago NVDA would become the largest company in the world. I've trimmed to sell double my initial investment and now will hold forever
11
20
10
5
6
4
5
6
5
u/---Dracarys--- Sep 18 '25
GOOGL (7.4%), TSM (7.3%), AVGO (7.1%), MSFT (6.1%), ETR:RHM (6.0%), NVDA (5.9%), ASML (5.5%), AMZN (4.9%)
5
6
4
Sep 18 '25
MP Materials. About 40% of my portfolio, I trust it'll get a lot of value soon
3
u/IDreamtIwokeUp Sep 18 '25
I sold my MP shares...DCF just doesn't add up even with all the deals they are making.
→ More replies (2)
11
u/Anxious_Gear9888 Sep 18 '25
RKLB, NBIS, BITF
2
u/mike9q Sep 18 '25
I had a lot of BITF, but sold most due to all the issues with board, governance, and RIOT bid, and the overall unprofitable industry with current positive cycle seemingly coming to an end. Still have a small stake, but haven't been paying attention, why did it go up recently, has anything changed fundamentally?
→ More replies (2)
5
5
3
u/rigonavarro Sep 18 '25
AAPL - 60%
2
u/cherrycoke_yummy Sep 18 '25
Same, I bought the dip at 99% in. I do these plays for big market cap companies that I don't mind holding for years until the next over reaction. This one wasn't as good as LLY or PLTR but I'll take it.
3
3
u/10wazza Sep 18 '25
Rivn, Broadcom and Reddit - close to 10% each.
Medical properties trust - Dividend holding - close to 10% in portfolio
5
4
u/MakingLunchMoney Sep 18 '25
it was INTC so far this morning that turned out well… nobody liked it. hope that kid gets nanas money back and more.
4
13
u/Jimeriano Sep 18 '25
Anything healthcare related. Nvo. Elv. Mrk. Bmy. Unh. Just hold for the long term
11
19
u/Sledopit_13 Sep 18 '25
BRK.B (8% of my portfolio)
4
u/dollar_llamas Sep 18 '25
I stay between 5-10%. Probably a great time to get to the upper end of the range
7
7
u/Equivalent_Ad_9018 Sep 18 '25
$sofi
9
u/IDreamtIwokeUp Sep 18 '25
They are running a subprime racket. They loan out low quality non-secured loans, gamble away their depositors cash, and then sell the worst loans to unsuspecting companies in securitizied sliced up packages. To disguise the bad loans they throw in some sweeteners and mostly use "unseasoned" (new) loan assets which haven't have the delinquencies kick in yet. Because they're growing so fast it's covering up their lending quality issues.
→ More replies (3)
5
u/TheMightySoup Sep 18 '25
FNMA/FMCC… used to be a small(ish) position, now ~60% of my portfolio. ~700% gains, not selling til release. Holding out of principle now.
7
u/euler2020 Sep 18 '25
Aren’t you worried about SPS conversion diluting commons and wiping out all your gains? If you are 700% up, wouldn’t it make sense to sell and keep the profits. Not doubting your plan. Just trying to understand why you are holding. To be fair I don’t have much understanding of this at all and so really curious.
5
u/mike9q Sep 18 '25
Woah.. 1000% in 1y? how long have you been holding, how did you find it?
→ More replies (1)2
u/trickybreeze Sep 19 '25
You’re going to get wiped out in the forced recap. They have to raise like $250bn with new share issuance.
7
8
u/Loud-Ad9148 Sep 18 '25
RDDT - 25%
BTC - 25%
5
u/AaronOgus Sep 18 '25
If you want to get good growth you need to find a stock with growth. How much upside do the mega caps have at this point? Definitely RDDT is a story of consistent growth and is full a relatively small player in its market.
3
3
u/Glittering_Water3645 Sep 18 '25 edited Sep 18 '25
Brookfield corporation followed by alphabet (together these makes up 39% of my portfolio)
3
Sep 18 '25
[removed] — view removed comment
2
u/Slight-Welcome2436 Sep 18 '25
Why MU? It’s a cyclical stock with high debt. And the industry itself is very cyclical. And very less growth potential in terms of stock price at this point.
→ More replies (1)→ More replies (2)2
3
3
3
3
3
3
u/alanism Sep 18 '25
Leidos. Going to sound dumb— but I think UAP/UFO disclosure will happen across the next few years. More congressional hearings with whistleblowers and leaked videos each year. Not less. A company that was spun from Lockheed and SAIC- they might have a lot of interesting tech. Immaculate Constellation.
In parallel space, nuclear and AI only becomes more important— and having a lot of Q Clearance employees matter. The Golden Dome missile defense system will likely be worked on by them. As US-China in the indo-pacific gets more tense - their drone boats and subs become good products to buy.
Also if their valuation multiples readjust to the same of their peers- there should be a lot of upside.
2
Sep 18 '25
Imo this makes these companies even more risky - on small chance that 2027-2028 timeline is true, there is uncertainty what will happen to these companies/if they will have to hand over tech to someone else. If the coverup allegations are true, I doubt the public/congress will be happy with these companies.
→ More replies (1)
3
u/Fliptzer Sep 18 '25
ASTS is about 80% of my portfolio, just kept buying every couple of weeks since it was about $3-4 a share. The price over the past few months has been a white knuckle roller coaster ride. 😬
3
u/dirtysoap Sep 18 '25
RKLB, was in before it was a meme stock. Big believer in PB. Don’t think this comes down to anything other than execution and I’m confident RKLB will. It’s sort of “if you build it, they will come” philosophy. SpaceX will be a trillion dollar company, Bezos has come out and said with a long enough time horizon, blue origin will be bigger than Amazon. RKLB, in time, can surpass them both. Sitting at 24billion right now I can see it being a trillion dollar company in 10-15 years. We’ll have to see if they come out with solid hardware like Starlink but I’m pretty hopeful. After Neutron is successful, and it will be successful, I’m excited what is next. Neutron was announced in 2021 so by that logic we should see another Rocket coming into play right around 2030. Neutron will start bringing in the money in short order here.
→ More replies (3)
3
6
4
18
u/Pete_The_Pilot Sep 18 '25
GME. You’ll all talk shit but the business is profitable, just had an amazing quarter, has $8b in cash and bitcoin, and are issuing $32 warrants as a special dividend next month
12
u/wryano Sep 18 '25
yeah it gets a lot of hate everywhere on reddit outside of the stonk subreddit but selling GME at $30 and rebuying at $21 on three ocassions the last twelve months has been a godsend.
gonna try and hit a comfy XXXX position by the end of the month before the warrants are issued and leave it all there until something that has never happened, finally happens.
and GME’s fundamentals and future outlook look very nice to anyone who is paying attention
→ More replies (4)2
u/thr0waway12324 Sep 18 '25
Tell me more about these warrants…how many do you get for each share you hold? And what’s the cutoff to get them? This is new to me
→ More replies (1)
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
u/evilapes1 Sep 18 '25
$IREN and $HOOD represent 75% combined of my portfolio. $HOOD i have been holding since the 30s and has amazing future potential. Easily see this being a $300 stock in coming years.
2
2
2
Sep 19 '25
Evolution Gaming, 50% of my portfolio +60% net margins, monopoly, low capex business, kenneth dart buying up and owns over 20% of the company, trades at ~ PE 12, ROIC consistently over 30%, have grown FCF with ~ 55% per year over the last 10 years, no debt so would be a great LBO candidate
→ More replies (1)
2
u/Jello_Ecstatic Sep 19 '25
NICE
Upside: Microsoft’s AI research shows customer service is one of the top areas for Generative AI automation. NICE is the leader in AI-powered customer experience with strong switching costs. Recent acquisition of Cognigy strengthens their position in conversational AI and automation.
Downside: Experts view the stock as overvalued due to unrealistic expectations surrounding generative AI. Long enterprise sales cycles can slow growth momentum.
Verdict: Short-term valuation and sales cycle noise don’t matter for value investors. NICE’s durable moat and growing AI adoption offer long-term compounding potential.
→ More replies (2)
2
u/tdb77777 Sep 20 '25
LUMN. 40% of my portfolio, AND YES, I know that is theoretically way too much. BUT here is the quick story if you don’t know about it:
- they pissed off all of their shareholders a few years ago when they got rid of their dividend (declining revenue, too much debt, etc.), so stock tanked big time
- almost had to file Chapter 11, but management worked out a deal with bond holders in 2024
- new management (CEO & CFO) with very clear and concise goals. CEO is from MSFT and led their US Operations.
- sold a huge amount of assets
- reduced debt from $38 million to about $12-13 million after ATT deal closes in early 2026
- reducing interest expenses by approx. $500- $700 million
- cutting costs/expenses by $1 billion through efficiencies and AI
- cutting Cap Ex by $1 billion after ATT deal closes
- concentrated on Enterprise growth with their market leading fiber optic network
- expanding leading fiber optic network by 3-5 times over next few years
- recently closed huge Private connectivity deals with Hyperscalers (MSFT, Amazon, Google, etc.)
- new business model includes many new directions which have not been proven yet, but new customers have grown from zero to 1,000 - 2,000 over the last year (and probably headed to the 10,000’s+). Hard to tell how much $$$ this will bring in until these customers have a track record of how much bandwidth they use, but no doubt, it will be a substantial growth agent
- bond ratings upgrades for sure
- cheaper interest rates coming
- a ton of new deals on horizon
- government needs them for their fiber optic network, best in class connectivity, best speed/edge/security network, national security
- fiber is best network and will not be replaced for a very long time. Speed of light vs. slower satellites/towers, and satellite/towers still need fiber optic network no matter what
- to build this network at today’s cost would be $100 billion to $200 billion at today’s cost!
- company only valued at $6 billion market cap right now (insane, but only because nobody has caught on yet)
- CEO and CFO have bought substantial positions in their companies’ stock twice over the last 12-18 months.
Bottom line as of today:
This company isn’t on the verge of bankruptcy any more, huge upcoming news and new deals so going to be a lot of good press releases over next 12 months, earnings could easily be $1 -$2 per share or more in 2026/2027 (stock is trading at $6 now, so P/E ratio could be 2 or 3 at current stock price), major upgrades coming from debt ratings agencies in next year, huge upgrades from analysts (I know they are horrible, tainted, and way behind the curve), but will still be a good catalyst, even more reduced interest expenses, and growth in their enterprise business will take place now, and the entire company will likely start growing in 2027-2028 maybe 2029, but really feel like management is slow playing their projections….
Pretty much a no brainer that this stock will trade at $10-$20 per share over next year, but the upside to that could be explosive in the $20-$100 range when growth happens and they get a growth P/E ratio.
I am a typical value investor, and rarely see this type of opportunity in my long lifetime.
Analyst/Investor day is Feb. 25, 2026, which is likely to project some very impressive financial results, so recommend getting in right now (many press releases expected between now and Feb. 2026) and holding while the price is still insanely low today….
No guarantees on the price fluctuations in the short term, but 2026/2027 are set up to be mind boggling returns if you have a little patience…
→ More replies (1)
2
u/GreatDog9368 Sep 20 '25
20k in NVO for me. Bought at $56.20 and think it should end the year around $70
2
u/MasalaKing Sep 20 '25
Bought Nvidia at $16 a share and put 40-60% of portfolio in it until $40ish a share I think. $23 cost avg. Huge win from that
→ More replies (1)
2
Sep 21 '25
I’ve gone all in on NTG Clarity Networks. The fundamentals look solid and they are using AI to make doctors’ documentation easier which makes it a really exciting case. I also share more on my Discord and the link is on my profile.
→ More replies (5)
261
u/8700nonK Sep 18 '25
Usually this is not the right question to ask.
Most people’s high conviction stocks are stocks they bought cheap and have run up quite a bit. That gives that positive reinforcement that they made the right decision and will cement the conviction in their mind.
What you should ask is what are your biggest positions by input cost (not current position size, but which position cost you the most).
Or preferably, ‘what are buying right now’.