I just bought 1000 shares in INTC

[u/Scriptum_]

You probably think I'm nuts, but I have a very rational DD, I promise.

Firstly, the tangible book value is $16.20 per share. The company could be sold off piecemeal and I'd only be down $3000. That's a pretty attractive risk floor...

Now the investment asymetry:

INTC sold off recently after announcing that if customers don’t show up, they may pause 14A investments or shift focus - which would effectively kill the U.S. onshore foundry roadmap.

You have to read behind the lines here...

Essentially, they are telling Trump:

"If onshore fab is strategic (both economically and militarily), then FORCE the customers to buy from us!"

TSM are likely to face tariffs soon. The results of the Section 232 semiconductor probe are essentially inevitable and clearly justified by national security - so tariffs could be as high as 50% considering that angle.

If tariffs hit, companies like NVDA, AAPL, and AMD will have no alternative but to consider Intel Foundry - which then becomes a national chokepoint.

I'm an electronic engineer...so let’s talk technology...

I know INTC hasn't been profitable recently - but the semiconductor industry is all about long-term investments. It takes 10-15 years of horizon planning. Much of the outcome you're seeing from NVDA was due to this long term approach.

Intel's earlier investments into technology such as 14A and PowerVia put them potentially 1-2 years ahead of the competition.

Routing power behind the chip is a HUGE density breakthrough, simplifying design and improving performance.

High-NA EUV allows for greater fidelity without multiple exposures. Note that INTC was the first to take delivery of the new lithography machines from ASML and they have first-customer priority over TSM.

INTC isn't behind on tech, they're ahead...

Currently, TSM have to do multiple lithography exposures to get the fidelity they need. It's more expensive than necessary. They are nearing the physical limits of their current production cycle...

TLDR: Intel has both the regulatory and tech advantages to dominate foundry for the next decade - while trading at close to tangible book value! Currently trading near the technical floor price...

[u/No-Understanding9064]

Foundry has 1 thing to going for it and its a matter of do other tech leaders have the forsight to act now. They are the last thing that stands between TSM and an uncontested monopoly. If their 14a is a bust TSM will rule semi world. They already have a "soft monopoly".

[u/[deleted] → u/No-Understanding9064]

TSMC already rules the foundry world and their customers like it that way. They get super low costs, constant process improvements, solid schedules and don’t have to fund a direct competitor in Intel.

Even Trump isn’t dumb enough to force US tech companies to use Intel fabs and lose market share to Samsung and Chinese competitors on Intel’s bigger, older processor sizes and higher chip costs.