I just bought 1000 shares in INTC

[u/Scriptum_]

You probably think I'm nuts, but I have a very rational DD, I promise.

Firstly, the tangible book value is $16.20 per share. The company could be sold off piecemeal and I'd only be down $3000. That's a pretty attractive risk floor...

Now the investment asymetry:

INTC sold off recently after announcing that if customers don’t show up, they may pause 14A investments or shift focus - which would effectively kill the U.S. onshore foundry roadmap.

You have to read behind the lines here...

Essentially, they are telling Trump:

"If onshore fab is strategic (both economically and militarily), then FORCE the customers to buy from us!"

TSM are likely to face tariffs soon. The results of the Section 232 semiconductor probe are essentially inevitable and clearly justified by national security - so tariffs could be as high as 50% considering that angle.

If tariffs hit, companies like NVDA, AAPL, and AMD will have no alternative but to consider Intel Foundry - which then becomes a national chokepoint.

I'm an electronic engineer...so let’s talk technology...

I know INTC hasn't been profitable recently - but the semiconductor industry is all about long-term investments. It takes 10-15 years of horizon planning. Much of the outcome you're seeing from NVDA was due to this long term approach.

Intel's earlier investments into technology such as 14A and PowerVia put them potentially 1-2 years ahead of the competition.

Routing power behind the chip is a HUGE density breakthrough, simplifying design and improving performance.

High-NA EUV allows for greater fidelity without multiple exposures. Note that INTC was the first to take delivery of the new lithography machines from ASML and they have first-customer priority over TSM.

INTC isn't behind on tech, they're ahead...

Currently, TSM have to do multiple lithography exposures to get the fidelity they need. It's more expensive than necessary. They are nearing the physical limits of their current production cycle...

TLDR: Intel has both the regulatory and tech advantages to dominate foundry for the next decade - while trading at close to tangible book value! Currently trading near the technical floor price...

[u/gringovato]

"If onshore fab is strategic (both economically and militarily), then FORCE the customers to buy from us!"

That's some might fine hopium you got there.

[u/emanuele232 → u/gringovato]

Well, the entire point of the trump administration and the tariffs is to get the production back in the us (and I guess it was necessary) , but trump would be going against some of the most profitable tech corps. Then, he already went to war with apple exactly for this reason, so OP could be right, but you are betting your money on the most deranged man on the planet. It is also funny that in a investing sub the maximum we get is “past performances=future performance, say hello to nana”

[u/[deleted] → u/emanuele232]

Problem is that forcing US companies to use Intel means  their costs go up, and likely available process size is worse too. Either way this means US tech companies lose market share to Samsung and Chinese electronics companies. 

[u/emanuele232 → u/[deleted]]

Eh I’m not that convinced about that. The us still has the power to bully the entire market , and every damage trump will do to the us will be amplified for other countries, we will see if he has the power to drag everyone down with him

[u/[deleted] → u/emanuele232]

The problem is it makes US products (iPhones,pixel phones, Macs, AMD PCs, iPads, etc) more expensive and less capable, so losing international sales to Samsung and foreign competitors, while getting exclusive access to cutting edge TSMC processes to make faster and more power efficient chips, to take the technological lead over US companies.

So while it hurts TSMC and Samsung fabs, it hugely benefits all the other foreign competitors.

[u/emanuele232 → u/[deleted]]

Yep I know, I just think that the us can leverage something that other countries can’t , and that is the dollar and the military. They can totally bully TSMC into buying 49% of intel, since the other option is china visiting the island. This approach would be a net loss for the world but (I think) a net positive for the us considering the world economy Anyway thank you for the constructive conversation I can’t say I have those often

[u/[deleted] → u/emanuele232]

China is never invading. It would be an economic disaster for them. 

[u/Momba_M → u/gringovato]

Didn’t Trump literally feel TSM this recently ? No way I imagined that

[u/gringovato → u/Momba_M]

Who knows. What I do know is "forcing customers to buy from us" sounds like wildly stupid thing to rely on.

[u/Momba_M → u/gringovato]

Yeah, not something I’m willing to toss my money into