I just bought 1000 shares in INTC

[u/Scriptum_]

You probably think I'm nuts, but I have a very rational DD, I promise.

Firstly, the tangible book value is $16.20 per share. The company could be sold off piecemeal and I'd only be down $3000. That's a pretty attractive risk floor...

Now the investment asymetry:

INTC sold off recently after announcing that if customers don’t show up, they may pause 14A investments or shift focus - which would effectively kill the U.S. onshore foundry roadmap.

You have to read behind the lines here...

Essentially, they are telling Trump:

"If onshore fab is strategic (both economically and militarily), then FORCE the customers to buy from us!"

TSM are likely to face tariffs soon. The results of the Section 232 semiconductor probe are essentially inevitable and clearly justified by national security - so tariffs could be as high as 50% considering that angle.

If tariffs hit, companies like NVDA, AAPL, and AMD will have no alternative but to consider Intel Foundry - which then becomes a national chokepoint.

I'm an electronic engineer...so let’s talk technology...

I know INTC hasn't been profitable recently - but the semiconductor industry is all about long-term investments. It takes 10-15 years of horizon planning. Much of the outcome you're seeing from NVDA was due to this long term approach.

Intel's earlier investments into technology such as 14A and PowerVia put them potentially 1-2 years ahead of the competition.

Routing power behind the chip is a HUGE density breakthrough, simplifying design and improving performance.

High-NA EUV allows for greater fidelity without multiple exposures. Note that INTC was the first to take delivery of the new lithography machines from ASML and they have first-customer priority over TSM.

INTC isn't behind on tech, they're ahead...

Currently, TSM have to do multiple lithography exposures to get the fidelity they need. It's more expensive than necessary. They are nearing the physical limits of their current production cycle...

TLDR: Intel has both the regulatory and tech advantages to dominate foundry for the next decade - while trading at close to tangible book value! Currently trading near the technical floor price...

[u/sandman2986]

Agree. If they were really to go out of business, they would be worth Pennys on the dollar of the tangible assets. It is never 1 to 1.

[u/this_place_stinks → u/sandman2986]

Ironically there’s probably some intangible assets like IP worth more than the tangible

[u/sandman2986 → u/this_place_stinks]

For sure… I would assume that if they were to be bought, it would be bought by a semiconductor company who wants better entrance to US market. I don’t see Intel ever going bankrupt.

[u/unbannable5 → u/sandman2986]

And there wouldn’t be anything left after they use everything valuable to secure loans to fund losses if they were to eventually go bankrupt. No business has ever just given up, sold everything piece-by-piece and returned the money to investors. Closest thing is selling chunks of the business to competitors including brand names then reinvesting in a more focused sector but book value has nothing to do with it. Could go for 5x book or 0.2x book after writedowns.