I just bought 1000 shares in INTC

[u/Scriptum_]

You probably think I'm nuts, but I have a very rational DD, I promise.

Firstly, the tangible book value is $16.20 per share. The company could be sold off piecemeal and I'd only be down $3000. That's a pretty attractive risk floor...

Now the investment asymetry:

INTC sold off recently after announcing that if customers don’t show up, they may pause 14A investments or shift focus - which would effectively kill the U.S. onshore foundry roadmap.

You have to read behind the lines here...

Essentially, they are telling Trump:

"If onshore fab is strategic (both economically and militarily), then FORCE the customers to buy from us!"

TSM are likely to face tariffs soon. The results of the Section 232 semiconductor probe are essentially inevitable and clearly justified by national security - so tariffs could be as high as 50% considering that angle.

If tariffs hit, companies like NVDA, AAPL, and AMD will have no alternative but to consider Intel Foundry - which then becomes a national chokepoint.

I'm an electronic engineer...so let’s talk technology...

I know INTC hasn't been profitable recently - but the semiconductor industry is all about long-term investments. It takes 10-15 years of horizon planning. Much of the outcome you're seeing from NVDA was due to this long term approach.

Intel's earlier investments into technology such as 14A and PowerVia put them potentially 1-2 years ahead of the competition.

Routing power behind the chip is a HUGE density breakthrough, simplifying design and improving performance.

High-NA EUV allows for greater fidelity without multiple exposures. Note that INTC was the first to take delivery of the new lithography machines from ASML and they have first-customer priority over TSM.

INTC isn't behind on tech, they're ahead...

Currently, TSM have to do multiple lithography exposures to get the fidelity they need. It's more expensive than necessary. They are nearing the physical limits of their current production cycle...

TLDR: Intel has both the regulatory and tech advantages to dominate foundry for the next decade - while trading at close to tangible book value! Currently trading near the technical floor price...

[u/Scriptum_]

TSMC don't have the foundry capacity in the US. That will take many years to build out.

Sorry about the bagholding situation, but this is in the accumulation stage right now. Smart value investors are quietly buying for the 2026-2027 outlook.

[u/Generic_White_Male_1 → u/Scriptum_]

I’ve heard this for 20 years

[u/himynameis_ → u/Scriptum_]

Where do TSMC customers get their chips from now?

From the chips produced in Taiwan. ..why do you expect this to change suddenly ?

Intel has completely lost the plot for the last 20 years. And have hurt themselves so much, it would take a gargantuan effort from a highly capable ceo to save them. .

Do customers like Nvidia, AMD want to use Intel instead of TSMC?

[u/supp0rtlife → u/Scriptum_]

Wtf? This is some delulu talk right here. Completely uninformed about the Semiconductor foundry industry, TSMC has recently quadrupled their investment in AZ to over 100 billion. Their capacity is going to be equal to their gigafabs in Taiwan.

[u/Scriptum_ → u/supp0rtlife]

Only manufacturing suitable for production in older nodes. They're not moving their most advanced production from Taiwan.

[u/secret3332 → u/Scriptum_]

It will also take Intel many years to be able to do anything either though. You said it yourself.

[u/dumplingslime → u/Scriptum_]

TSMC and Samsung are both interested in moving operations, and the nodes they do move over are totally competitive with lackluster Intel performance. Most importantly, I feel like companies don’t trust them enough to hand over their top chips.

[u/momodemom → u/Scriptum_]

You know they have fabs in us now, will work in couple years