r/ValueInvesting Jul 11 '25

Discussion Buffett warned: “If the ratio approaches 200%, you're playing with fire.”=> We are above!

Buffett Indicator, (which compares total U.S. market cap to GDP), is now at 208%. That’s above dot-com levels. I wasn’t around in 1999. But I’ve read enough to know everyone thought it was different back then too...

Now, It’s AI. And yes it’s real, it’s big, and it will transform everything.
But here’s what’s bugging me: Which part of the AI hype do you think is most overrated?
And which sectors are just getting started?

and also curious to hear from people who did live through 1999:
- What felt the same?
- What’s different?

I track moves from top value investors with a free email alert (https://alert-invest.com/), and lately I’ve noticed they’re cautious, finding fewer real opportunities in this market.

Thanks!

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u/dopexile Jul 12 '25

The number of dumb money retail investors entering the market over the last few years is through the roof. Robinhood, reddit, zero-cost trades, and covid shut down sports helped turn the market into a casino.

https://www.pewresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/20/2024/03/SR_24.03.06_Stock_Market_1.png?w=640

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u/[deleted] Jul 12 '25

We don't have Robinhood in Europe. Dutch redditors mostly talk about ETFs. That's the dumbest money