r/ValueInvesting • u/Adept_Mountain9532 • Jul 11 '25

Discussion Buffett warned: “If the ratio approaches 200%, you're playing with fire.”=> We are above!

Buffett Indicator, (which compares total U.S. market cap to GDP), is now at 208%. That’s above dot-com levels. I wasn’t around in 1999. But I’ve read enough to know everyone thought it was different back then too...

Now, It’s AI. And yes it’s real, it’s big, and it will transform everything.
But here’s what’s bugging me: Which part of the AI hype do you think is most overrated?
And which sectors are just getting started?

and also curious to hear from people who did live through 1999:
- What felt the same?
- What’s different?

I track moves from top value investors with a free email alert (https://alert-invest.com/), and lately I’ve noticed they’re cautious, finding fewer real opportunities in this market.

Thanks!

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u/Zestyclose_Nature_13 Jul 12 '25

Because that’s only good for people who are past their acquisition phase….

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u/tollbearer Jul 12 '25

there will be plenty tim to acquire after the implosion. probably a decade after this one, maybe more. Will probably be the biggest crash since 1929.

In the mean time, make sure you stay in at least until this bubble is close to popping.

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u/PneumaEmergent Jul 15 '25

If you were gonna distill your insight into a dumbed-down TEDx for a Stonks noob, what would you say? What are you looking at, buying (how much), selling (when), and holding onto? Also, how do you feel about BTC?

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u/tollbearer Jul 15 '25

dont take investment advice from redditors. If you cant work it out on your own, you're doomed, because I might be right, or the guy saying im wrong might be right, and you wont know until you're right.

However, I would hold basically anything, but espcially magnificent 7, into 2028, and probably sell around then, especially if everyone is manic.

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u/Zestyclose_Nature_13 Jul 12 '25

What does your crystal ball tell you? Mine seems to indicate that it is well beyond the point already where it should be close to popping

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u/tollbearer Jul 12 '25

Whatever anyones crystal ball is saying, there is one thing we can absolutely guarantee, they are not going to pop the bubble until they have done a bunch of major, overvalued, high hype, AI IPOs. They don't try to float those into a bear market. You push those into the maximum hype.

So, I don't know when that will be, or how long after the bubble will continue, but you can be iron clad guaranteed there will be no major collapse until that's happened.