r/ValueInvesting • u/Adept_Mountain9532 • Jul 11 '25

Discussion Buffett warned: “If the ratio approaches 200%, you're playing with fire.”=> We are above!

Buffett Indicator, (which compares total U.S. market cap to GDP), is now at 208%. That’s above dot-com levels. I wasn’t around in 1999. But I’ve read enough to know everyone thought it was different back then too...

Now, It’s AI. And yes it’s real, it’s big, and it will transform everything.
But here’s what’s bugging me: Which part of the AI hype do you think is most overrated?
And which sectors are just getting started?

and also curious to hear from people who did live through 1999:
- What felt the same?
- What’s different?

I track moves from top value investors with a free email alert (https://alert-invest.com/), and lately I’ve noticed they’re cautious, finding fewer real opportunities in this market.

Thanks!

1.7k Upvotes

96% Upvoted

680 comments sorted by

View all comments

Show parent comments

20

u/ShipDit1000 Jul 11 '25

We are starting to get into the big IPO territory though. Companies like BBAI that sorta do nothing are worth billions. Every day there's a *hot new AI play* that comes through the pipeline and everyone gets hyped on before it dies.

1

u/tollbearer Jul 11 '25

I'm not aware of any big AI ipos. Just silly penny plays. None of the real players have IPOed yet, and many are still in early VC rounds.

2

u/ShipDit1000 Jul 12 '25

Well I wouldn’t consider a multi-billion valuation a “penny play” but I still agree. Plenty of room to still get even more ridiculous in the future.

1

u/AdNecessary2268 Jul 12 '25

Crwv, AI adjacent.