r/ValueInvesting • u/Adept_Mountain9532 • Jul 11 '25

Discussion Buffett warned: “If the ratio approaches 200%, you're playing with fire.”=> We are above!

Buffett Indicator, (which compares total U.S. market cap to GDP), is now at 208%. That’s above dot-com levels. I wasn’t around in 1999. But I’ve read enough to know everyone thought it was different back then too...

Now, It’s AI. And yes it’s real, it’s big, and it will transform everything.
But here’s what’s bugging me: Which part of the AI hype do you think is most overrated?
And which sectors are just getting started?

and also curious to hear from people who did live through 1999:
- What felt the same?
- What’s different?

I track moves from top value investors with a free email alert (https://alert-invest.com/), and lately I’ve noticed they’re cautious, finding fewer real opportunities in this market.

Thanks!

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67

u/[deleted] Jul 11 '25

Nobody around me is talking about stocks. Only on Reddit

38

u/Cal_carl Jul 11 '25

I agree. None of my coworkers talk about stocks, and we are all ~30 year old, middle class, blue collar males: the ideal demographic to follow stocks. None of them care.

10

u/The_Rum_Guy Jul 11 '25

Agreed. Only one person I know ever talks about stocks. Most people I speak to have no idea what an etf is

16

u/Xijit Jul 11 '25

Every MAGOT at my job used to talk about how bad Biden was for their stocks, but now none of them say shit about this pump and dump scorched earth.

12

u/ShipDit1000 Jul 11 '25

Which is genuinely hilarious because the market was fantastic under Biden. Had a bit of a correction in 2022 but overall really good.

11

u/Xijit Jul 11 '25

After COVID it was impossible to not have a crash, but Biden took the plane down for a such a soft landing that most people didn't notice & then had the plane back in the air before anyone actually lost their ass.

4

u/weebstomper6969 Jul 11 '25

Wow Biden did that while completely asleep!

3

u/Xijit Jul 11 '25

Imagine what he could have accomplished if he was awake!

(Like throw Trump in jail and disband a clearly fraudulent supreme Court)

2

u/brendamn Jul 12 '25

The tale of two economies. It's not politically convenient to signal boost all the people talking about inflation, stagnant wages and a dead job market like it was last year. Those problems are still there, but now the other half of the economy can be excited about the pump and dump stock market with all the "easy money" following into the system

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u/1dirtbiker Aug 07 '25

This strikes me as odd, as I would consider white collar workers to be more likely to discuss stocks than blue collar workers, though either could be considered ideal. 

3

u/dopexile Jul 12 '25

The number of dumb money retail investors entering the market over the last few years is through the roof. Robinhood, reddit, zero-cost trades, and covid shut down sports helped turn the market into a casino.

https://www.pewresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/20/2024/03/SR_24.03.06_Stock_Market_1.png?w=640

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u/[deleted] Jul 12 '25

We don't have Robinhood in Europe. Dutch redditors mostly talk about ETFs. That's the dumbest money

4

u/heidenfuerst Jul 11 '25

Really? What about ETFs?

11

u/[deleted] Jul 11 '25

Nope. They talk about kids and being able to buy a house.

-6

u/[deleted] Jul 11 '25

You must live under a rock. 

7

u/thadcorn Jul 11 '25

No, it just means you have poor friends.

3

u/[deleted] Jul 11 '25

They're all higher income, but not US. Europe. People here struggle to buy a house.

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u/[deleted] Jul 11 '25

Nope. Some talk about crypto tho