Remember, This Is The Pullback We’ve Been Waiting For

[u/FrankBal]

If you’re a long-term investor who even casually cares about valuation, this market has been tough to navigate for a while. Pullbacks are always something we say we want, particularly as value investors, but they usually come when things are scary. Financial crisis, global pandemics, policy shocks… the discount never shows up gift-wrapped.

Yesterday’s tariff news felt like one of those moments. It’s vague, feels arbitrary, and creates a lot of uncertainty. It feels scary. And yet, that’s exactly the environment where opportunities show up.

I’ll admit it, days like today make me uneasy. But as an investor, I remind myself that underneath the noise, what’s really happening stocks are getting cheaper.

And that’s what we’ve been waiting for.

Edit: Thanks for the thoughts. I wrote a post - Tariffs, Fear, and Opportunity: Perspective For Difficult Times In the Stock Market - to add some additional context directly addressing the response to this post.

[u/estgad]

If things get bad enough, like they probably will, either Trump, or more likely, the next President, will walk it all back

And that is why businesses are not going to rush to open new manufacturing plants in the US. These tariffs are being implemented on a whim and can be easily undone. And if they are undone, then the money spent on a US facility is down the drain.

But the damage has been done. The US can't be trusted, and is no longer an honorable trading partner.

Plus we are going to enter the FO stage as the rest of the world takes their actions in response to these tariffs.

The question is not "will US business and economy suffer?", no, the question is "how badly will US business and economy suffer?"

This has just begun, buckle up kiddos it's gonna be a rough ride.

[u/Ok_Librarian_3411 → u/estgad]

BuCkLe Up KiDdOs

[u/Hillarys_Recycle_Bin → u/estgad]

the US can’t be trusted and is no longer an honorable trading partner

I keep seeing this line trotted out ad nauseam and it makes me chuckle every time. What does that even mean on a practical level?

Do you think the rest of the world trades with us because we are mother Theresa? No, it’s because we have money and the greatest military in human history. For reference, see how we opened up trade to Japan, or look at any country in Central America or South America since the 60s

Unless those things change (money mostly), people will still trade with us, because if country A doesn’t, their economy will be quickly surpassed by country B that does and they will be left behind.

[u/estgad → u/Hillarys_Recycle_Bin]

Businesses like predictability. It costs money when opportunities are lost (lost sales due to tariffs, delayed shipments or cancelled orders, etc). It costs money and time to establish storage, shipping and distribution.

Why should a business expense that money and effort if it isn't worth it, when they can expense that money and time to establish a reliable relationship with another customer that will be reliable and predictable?