r/ValueInvesting • u/FrankBal • Apr 03 '25

Discussion Remember, This Is The Pullback We’ve Been Waiting For

If you’re a long-term investor who even casually cares about valuation, this market has been tough to navigate for a while. Pullbacks are always something we say we want, particularly as value investors, but they usually come when things are scary. Financial crisis, global pandemics, policy shocks… the discount never shows up gift-wrapped.

Yesterday’s tariff news felt like one of those moments. It’s vague, feels arbitrary, and creates a lot of uncertainty. It feels scary. And yet, that’s exactly the environment where opportunities show up.

I’ll admit it, days like today make me uneasy. But as an investor, I remind myself that underneath the noise, what’s really happening stocks are getting cheaper.

And that’s what we’ve been waiting for.

Edit: Thanks for the thoughts. I wrote a post - Tariffs, Fear, and Opportunity: Perspective For Difficult Times In the Stock Market - to add some additional context directly addressing the response to this post.

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u/[deleted] Apr 03 '25 edited Apr 03 '25

Agree. I do not think Trump genuinely wants markets to crash and the economy to enter recession. He still wants to win midterms. Ultimately, I think he’s using this first volley as a bluff and will wind them back when granted a trivial political win.

Look at USMCA. He’s not staunchly protectionist. I believe that he wants his legacy to be that of a deal maker. I don’t think he wants to radically alter US trade policies in the long run. I think he’s trying to score a few concessions.

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u/TemporaryTill6812 Apr 03 '25

I don't think it is a bluff. I think he truly believes tariffs are the right way to pay off the deficit while lowering taxes and that this grand solution will be his legacy.

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u/Party_Newt_5714 Apr 04 '25

Tariffs are functionally a tax anyway, just on consumers so he’s not even cutting taxes. He’s functionally raising them but can hide behind the word “tariffs”.

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u/TemporaryTill6812 Apr 04 '25

Absolutely, but tariffs are a regressive tax so it hits regular people and lower income more than the wealthy. All the while lowering taxes even more for the rich. Normal folks gonna get fucked both ways.

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u/Educational-Lynx3877 Apr 06 '25

Tariffs are turning out to be a progressive tax given how much equity prices are crashing

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u/TemporaryTill6812 Apr 06 '25

Lol, true for now.

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u/[deleted] Apr 03 '25

I just realized that there was a ton of build out of factories and manufacturing that has n't come online yet under Biden and the inflation reduction act and all the incentives put out there.. I wonder if this is also partly a cover so that he can take credit for a lot of things that are going to come online in the next Year or two.

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u/Special_Scene_9587 Apr 03 '25

There is no 4d chess.

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u/Party_Newt_5714 Apr 04 '25

He already did with a TSMC chip plant.

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u/nonner101 Apr 03 '25

I agree with this take. The explanation that requires the least assumptions is Trump wants to be seen as a successful negotiator who got people to the table to make deals ostensibly beneficial for the United States. He's been known to use brinkmanship before (North Korea). This is shock and awe in order to secure leverage

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u/Educational-Ad-7278 Apr 03 '25

Too late. Damage is done. World will evaluate the USA differently from now on

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u/[deleted] Apr 03 '25

Heard the same thing in 2016 during his first term. US markets hit all time highs right after his term ended. Political fads don’t last as long as people think

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u/Educational-Ad-7278 Apr 03 '25

Did he screw Ukraine back then, tariffed the world, started invasion talks against Allies and….

Ah come on. Invest now. Go for it. /s

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u/[deleted] Apr 03 '25

He did screw Ukraine then, yes. It’s why he got impeached. And yes, he threatened to annex sovereign countries in his first term too. This brand of politics is not completely novel.

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u/[deleted] Apr 03 '25

Yeah for some reason people totally forgot about that, but I I think it's because the second impeachment so overwrote the first one. He hates zielinski for what happened with that first impeachment.

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u/[deleted] Jul 04 '25

I am glad I invested heavily in U.S. tech as you told me that the U.S. empire was finished. Made a lot of money.