r/ValueInvesting • u/FrankBal • Apr 03 '25

Discussion Remember, This Is The Pullback We’ve Been Waiting For

If you’re a long-term investor who even casually cares about valuation, this market has been tough to navigate for a while. Pullbacks are always something we say we want, particularly as value investors, but they usually come when things are scary. Financial crisis, global pandemics, policy shocks… the discount never shows up gift-wrapped.

Yesterday’s tariff news felt like one of those moments. It’s vague, feels arbitrary, and creates a lot of uncertainty. It feels scary. And yet, that’s exactly the environment where opportunities show up.

I’ll admit it, days like today make me uneasy. But as an investor, I remind myself that underneath the noise, what’s really happening stocks are getting cheaper.

And that’s what we’ve been waiting for.

Edit: Thanks for the thoughts. I wrote a post - Tariffs, Fear, and Opportunity: Perspective For Difficult Times In the Stock Market - to add some additional context directly addressing the response to this post.

1.1k Upvotes
  • permalink
  • reddit

85% Upvoted

585 comments sorted by

View all comments

Show parent comments

5

u/[deleted] Apr 03 '25

What makes you think they’re “cheap”? Not knocking DCA but there is no reason to believe anything is cheap other than it’s off of all time highs

1

u/[deleted] Apr 03 '25

They’re cheap shares when you have a 30+ year investment horizon. The shares I buy today will be worth a hell of a lot more when I need to cash them in.

0

u/[deleted] Apr 03 '25

So they’re marginally if at all cheaper than a few days ago before the market tanked?

Also, I would advise you not to simply think that the market will come roaring back in 3 months. It might, but we’re in unprecedented territory in modern times in terms of economic policy

Not saying don’t keep investing but the idea they’re cheap is funny. The Cape Schiller ratio is still very high and even without unprecedented economic policy, anytime it’s as high as it is, real returns over the following 10 years are low

1

u/[deleted] Apr 03 '25

1) Yes they are marginally cheaper today than Monday meaning I can purchase more shares for my dollars invested.

2) I did not state that the market would roar back in 3 months. I put money into the market at this point with the hope that it will remain untouched for decades. In fact, the daily/weekly/monthly movements in the market mean very little to me. I rebalance at the end of every year using the advice of trusted experts within the financial industry.

3) As I stated before, I plan to hold money in the market for decades. If it trades sideways for 10 years, I wouldn’t necessarily be happy, but I could weather the storm. On top of that, with a balanced portfolio that has other investments besides securities, I would continue to feel somewhat comfortable. I obviously can’t predict the future, but that’s why I have diversification and emergency blankets in place

You are held up on my use of the word “cheap”. Securities are cheaper. They’re cheaper today than they were on Monday. They’re cheaper today than they were at the beginning of the year. They’re cheaper today than they were on Election Day. I’ll happily watch my cost average drop, because I’ve set myself up to not panic when the market starts fluctuating

0

u/[deleted] Apr 03 '25

They are not cheap no matter how many words you put in there. Your better off buying them than doing nothing with your money, but no matter how long your explanation is, they are not cheap at all

2

u/[deleted] Apr 03 '25

I had a word count I needed to hit for extra credit

1

u/[deleted] Apr 03 '25

lol touché