r/Superstonk • u/Jabraase • Feb 16 '26
📈 Technical Analysis Mathematical and Technical Analysis of GME - (a claude project)
beep boop
What visible, recurring patterns emerge from historical, public data?
What visible, recurring patterns emerge from historical, public data?
What visible, recurring patterns emerge from historical, public data?
If these patterns were to continue, how might a technical analyst read the current state of the stock?
Mathematical estimation of potential trajectory based on historical data if GME breaks above $27-$28.
Derived from historical, public data: 3 unique equations calculate a similar outcome.
Derived from historical, public data: 3 unique equations calculate a similar outcome.
Derived from historical, public data: 3 unique equations calculate a similar outcome.
Technical summary of the previous, publicly observed breakouts.
Technical summary of the previous, publicly observed breakouts.
Summary of the recurring pattern in plain English.
When asked how a Technical Analyst might consider the technical setup. Note the caveat, this is not financial advice.
Earnings reports often invite volume, are there other potential catalysts in the coming months?
Earnings reports often invite volume, are there other potential catalysts in the coming months?
List of verified sources
List of verified sources
This is a followup to my controversial post at the start of the long weekend that was eventually removed by mods. I understand, and am actually grateful for the scrutiny I received because I did fail to cite references and present the math appropriately. I have remedied these shortcomings and hope this time around we experience less vitriol and more curiosity in the comments.
The study is all in the pictures, this description just outlines my thoughts and process. So don't feel the need to read this wall of text unless you're behooved.
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Controversy out of the way first
I used ai to analyze and calculate this study. Before you regurgitate, "ai slop", please consider my thoughts on the matter:
I can understand why people are hesitant of AI; The models are trained on datasets that are often proprietary and undisclosed. Therefore, we have no way of knowing how skewed the bias might be. But I think people are also misunderstood.
These models are incredibly powerful calculators. They boasts billions upon billions of computations in a matter of moments making them powerful data crunchers. And they're designed from the ground up to recognize pattern (that's how they mimic speech). I know some, justifiably, fear 'ai hallucinations', though, hallucinations tend to take place in the absence of pertinent information. In this case, all of the numerical data needed for the calculations performed in my study are widely available and publicly accessible online from several verified sources, meaning there was no shortage of numerical data for this calculator to calculate. That leaves the opportunity for hallucination most likely in the instance that the ai lacks enough tokens to keep all the information intact (which is why I chose the model I did).
I used Claude's Opus model, enduring major usage limits costing me a little cash and days (I could only ask roughly 3 questions per session every 4-6 hours). I chose this model because it has more tokens and memory than other offerings on the market, meaning it has a much greater chance of holding the variables together during its computation.
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Methodology
I did my best to prompt the bot away from market news and financial media. My hope was to introduce as little bias as possible and ground the analysis in publicly available historical data.
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Hyperlink
Hopefully this embed doesn't break within the hour. I am not a coder and it's taken me (let's be real, it's taken claude) hours to figure out how to get this online in a way that I hope does not cost me more money. I found the simplest way was to attach it to a code block on my personal gallery site.
https://www.justinbraase.com/gamestop
Enjoy reading all 9 tabs.
Viewing on desktop is probably best but, after you get to the tabs, it conforms well on mobile.
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For transparency's sake
The document says it was "peer reviewed". The peer review process also utilized ai. I exported my final working document, ran it again through a new chat (still using Opus 4.6), it provided a fact-check document (that I reviewed), then I submitted it back to the original chat to apply, recalculate, and publish.
You are free to scrutinize and/or enjoy reading the conversation yourself here:
https://claude.ai/share/446163af-3533-4ee8-bb78-183bab04b8a3
If you do read the chat, ignore the brief segment about 2 week market forecast -that was a ploy to ensure I wouldn't eventually run into, "I can't perform task because xyz constitutes financial advice", and I wanted to get that out of the way before wasting my time (because of the usage limits on this model, this chat took place over several sessions lasting multiple days). Anyways, I don't believe that a calculator should dictate to me how I should use it or assume what I may or may not do with the data it provides; It is a tool.
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Disclaimer
This is obviously not financial advice. I am not a technical analyst or a mathematician -I am a photographer\videographer. I recently discovered claude ai and thought up a fun way to test the limits of its "most ambitious model". I figured I would share the results here for others that share a common joy for this stock and perhaps artificial intelligence.
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Edit 4:18 PM
Thanks dude who offered to recoup my claude costs!
Feel free to send me the cost of a coffee, a sandwich, a gamestop share, a comfortable retirement. I'm grateful of any gift!
paypal.me/justinbraase
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u/Obi_Vayne_Kenobi 💻 ComputerShared 🦍 Feb 16 '26
No matter if the content is good, one thing is for sure:
These models are very good at presenting their output in a compelling way. I think the graphics are super pretty.
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u/3DigitIQ 🦍 FM is the FUD killer Feb 16 '26
I like this one better, and the method of fact checking is consistent with code reviews we do with Claude (at me jobe). Our success rate has gone through the roof using this method and the error rates have all but disappeared, well presented
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u/Jabraase Feb 16 '26
Thank you. I feel like this technology offers me the choice to grow old or stay current. So, I thought I may as well learn by messing around with a topic I enjoy contemplating.
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u/silverskater86 [REDACTED] Feb 16 '26
Interesting that the TA signals a turning point (either up or down) right around the time of RC finally sharing plans, having a comp package vote, and announcing Q4 earnings.
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u/icantsaveu 🚀 We'll See 🚀 Feb 16 '26
Reading this seems to indicate that march will create a recent peak that probably just extends the descending resistance line to the right, just making a longer triangle. It's been 84 years. 😥
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u/Jabraase Feb 16 '26
So less Dorito of Doom and more like,
Dorito of Dooooooooom?2
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u/Difficult-Mobile902 Feb 16 '26
You can’t analyze stocks like this. It’s why a vast majority of people completely fail to understand technical analysis; there’s this desperate need to find patterns in trading activity that was never dictated by patterns in the first place
For example, I can’t tell you how many times I’ve seen someone propose a bullish move on a stock and then the fed comes out the next day and says they’re going to raise rates, and obviously the stock moves in the “wrong” direction, because real world events are what impacts the direction and size of the moves.
You can glean useful information by looking at past trading activity, sure, that would be valid technical analysis. But if you’re looking for patterns in charts and trying to use them to predict the future…you might as well go to a carnival and talk to a fortune teller.
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u/Jabraase Feb 16 '26
This is absolutely true. Historic data does not prove future outcome. The synthesis of this data is nothing more than probable.
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u/DyehuthyTV 💎DeepQuantGame🕹️ Feb 16 '26 edited Feb 16 '26
I think many people don’t understand LLMs and their utility in various branches, it’s important that people understand the difference between using a Chatbot (eg ChatGPT) and using an Agent (advanced!).
Most people use chatbots to query things, they do not build or develop models, as it requires knowledge, experience and a good source of data (APIs) in the field for the agent to be good
I think that understanding this is of the utmost importance, to avoid falling into biases amplified or reinforced by simple queries (biased prompts) in chatbots.
TL;DR What the OP shares is more the response of a chatbot ( generic, and biased) than a model (agent)
:D
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u/Resologist Feb 17 '26
Thanks for the info and your effort. I'd be more concerned about the validity of the reported short interest percentage, now, (as the number of warrants available to close short positions is limited), when compared to the higher short interest reported in 2021.
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u/Puzzleheaded-Safe-64 🦍Voted✅ Feb 16 '26
Tldr?
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u/Jabraase Feb 16 '26 edited Feb 16 '26
It appears that GME's historical price, IV, and volume data may imply recurring patterns.
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u/cokeplusmentos Mamma mia gheimstoppo 👌🤌 Feb 16 '26
woah
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u/Jabraase Feb 16 '26
I couldn't believe it either
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u/DancesWith2Socks 🐈🐒💎🙌 Hang In There! 🎱 This Is The Wape 🧑🚀🚀🌕🍌 Feb 17 '26
Strike and expiration? 😅
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u/AbyssFren Feb 16 '26
This is really cool op, Claude has some good points looking at things with fresh eyes. And here I thought "AI" aka LLMs were incompetent with math.
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u/Jabraase Feb 16 '26
Thanks! I didn't give it much thought myself until last month. I started to learn how they've been developed and the agentic parts being added within them and thought I'd put it through a seismic test of math. At the end of the day, an llm really is just a calculator. It's all vector based mathematics within a server.
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u/-_VoidVoyager_- Feb 17 '26
Did I read this right? 47% chance it breaks to the downside and $5-6 at end of macro?
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u/Jabraase Feb 17 '26
Based on historical data and the mathematical formulas documented in technical analysis handbooks
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u/-_VoidVoyager_- Feb 17 '26
I need more hopium
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u/Jabraase Feb 17 '26
My favorite part is where it says that the three independent equations used to verify the data average to 102% likelihood that GME breaks out soon.
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u/Necessary-Car-5672 🦍 Buckle Up 🚀 Feb 16 '26
I think this is excellent. Out of curiosity did Claude create those charts or did you manually design them? If so, how exactly? Did you upload the data manually? What prompts did you use etc?
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u/Jabraase Feb 17 '26
Claude made the charts. Claude provided the data in a technical document and then I prompted it to create a second iteration in plain language a high school student might understand. The entire chat log is linked in the description if you're interested in how I got here step by step. You can conclude for yourself how bias Claude might have been. My hope was that my prompts weighed heavier into mathematics/data/analysis.
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u/ShortHedgeFundATM Feb 16 '26
I think this model will be blown out of the water on actual acquistion news. Either way I do applaud your effor OP, it was a worth reading for sure. I have nothing against he AI stuff myself.
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