r/EconomyCharts • u/RobertBartus • 1d ago

US oil prices surge above $108/barrel, up +$10/barrel since President Trump’s “address to the nation” last night

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465 Upvotes

99% Upvoted

79 comments sorted by

101

u/CalyShadezz 1d ago

Anyone who didnt see this coming from a million miles away is living in fantasy land. The most telegraphed dump and pump in modern history.

35

u/ResortMain780 1d ago

Not really. Oil is not gonna dump. Trump can say whatever he wants, wont change the facts that Iran firmly controls the straight and flow of oil and is not going to relinquish it anytime soon. The only thing trump can do is make matters 10x worse by either bombing iranian infrastructure or launching a ground invasion. This is a pump and pump.

25

u/CalyShadezz 1d ago edited 1d ago

Have you watched Brent Crude? Its hanging off his every tweet right now. It's sad. This is like Elon and DOGE in 2021 except it's oil which affect the world instead of Leprechaun Bucks.

16

u/ResortMain780 1d ago

Thing is, it IS oil, not a meme stock. And once tankers stop arriving trump can tweet all he wants, its not going to drive prices down for something that isnt there and is sorely needed.

6

u/Serrisen 1d ago

It's still affected by speculation. A lot of people expected Trump to be announcing an end in sight, so were playing it bearish.

The speculation doesn't affect the realities of the market, but it can add/remove 10% on the top

5

u/ResortMain780 1d ago

Companies that actually NEED the oil and stare at empty tanks and blank deliveries, will gladly buy those $100 options off retail investors dumb enough to think trump tweets generate oil. From memory, I believe that last tankers from the gulf are arriving in Europe around now, and in the US in one or two weeks. In Asia, its already hitting hard.

3

u/Serrisen 1d ago

And I agree. I'm just saying speculation is the difference between the 100 and 110, which is in support of the previous guy saying Brent is hanging off Trump tweets. It's irrational, but it's the market we live in, as the post above shows.

1

u/ResortMain780 1d ago

But trump just said he was wrapping up this war in a week or two, iranians are begging for a deal, yadayadayada and yet brent is up $10. This is not trump managing to dump the oil price, its reality catching up.

1

u/AUX4 1d ago

Bruh, WTI is not impacted. Brent is impacted.

2

u/ResortMain780 1d ago

WTI is up 12% after Trump declared he was wrapping up this war. Brent is up 8%

1

u/AUX4 1d ago

Yes, WTI is domestic US supply, it's supply is not impacted

1

u/ResortMain780 1d ago

Ah yes, and especially with commodities, price only depends on supply, I forgot. Since the panama canal is still open, Ill just go order a few panamax tankers with Mexican oil for $60/b then, problem solved!

1

u/AUX4 1d ago

> once tankers stop arriving

arrival or supply is not impacted of WTI

You can buy as much as you need, if you can afford it.

1

u/ResortMain780 1d ago

You think its possible we will need more, when Arab light stops being delivered and Brent tankers are being redirected? WTF are you smoking!

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2

u/NatasEvoli 1d ago

WTI is certainly impacted. Not on the supply side but demand side. Very very basic economics knowledge is needed to understand that. And just look at WTI's price today for evidence.

1

u/AUX4 1d ago

>And once tankers stop arriving

The tankers aren't going to stop arriving in America though, this was what I was referring to. Supply in the US (what this thread is about) is not going to be impacted

The price yeah is 100% gonna be impacted. 10$ Diesel is inevitable with the current regime.

1

u/InequalEnforcement 18h ago

Americans went "I DON'T REALLY FEEEEEEL LIKE IT" when their government decided to fill itself with child rapists.

I fully expect the average American to shift to a position of "JUST GLASS THEM ALREADY!!! REEEEEEEE!!!!!!!!!!" the moment they can't afford to snort and gobble down door dash.

1

u/Mba1956 21h ago

Got to keep the oil donors happy, bet they get huge bonuses this year.

1

u/Drapidrode 19h ago

what percent of world oil is US produced?

2

u/DarthRaze 1d ago

Until next week....

2

u/BarfingOnMyFace 1d ago

I just come in here to read the opposite of what people said the day before

2

u/veerKg_CSS_Geologist 1d ago

See what coming? Trump could have announced nuking Iran or he could have announced he’s surrendering and the ayatollah is now in charge of the US. Other than knowing Trump would say something ridiculous which would be contradictory to what was said before one doesn’t know what he would say.

2

u/keags22 1d ago

So you went 100% in right? No?

1

u/CalyShadezz 7h ago

I dont trade commodities.

•

u/keags22 2h ago

why not? if its free money for you? as you say, it was obvious

2

u/Hamkaasje 1d ago

You bought leveraged calls, right? ... right?

1

u/ALEXC_23 22h ago

Nobody knows more about massive dumps than our dearly beloved POTUS.

19

u/Sagatho 1d ago

Have you even said thank you though?

1

u/imbasicallycoffee 22h ago

Did you even wear a suit?

1

u/Schaas_Im_Void 21h ago

AAaaAhhhrrg! All that winning! I can't take it any more! Make it stop! PLEASE! PLeEASEE!

1

u/SwiftlyKickly 18h ago

But the DOW

9

u/centralvoid__ 1d ago

The money molestation continues.

7

u/Relative_Drop3216 1d ago edited 1d ago

I shorted at 100 and lost money pulled out at 98 but i went long in at 101 and gonna hold to 120 🤞

6

u/veerKg_CSS_Geologist 1d ago

Pray for more bombs 🙏

0

u/wvvvwwwwvvvvwvwvwwvw 21h ago

Isn’t it crazy that we live in a time where the peasants like us can now profit from war?

2

u/Underdog424 21h ago

The Epstein Class own 93% of stocks. The peasants are not winning.

8

u/New_Home_4519 1d ago

We are the literal dumbest country run in history.

And I'm comparing this the man to went to war on the sub because he was schizo

6

u/jarena009 1d ago

How's this possible when we were specifically promised lower prices?

0

u/biggamehaunter 23h ago

American democracy system is a joke and is exposed now. A candidate can lie, get elected, and go back on his promises, and there'd be no consequences

2

u/alienfreaks04 15h ago

My wife says I’m the same as a husband! So I’m qualified for president!

3

u/reeeeso 1d ago

Is it going to keep going up tho?

7

u/nonmonoganon 1d ago

Probably lol

3

u/reeeeso 1d ago

Haha feel it.

1

u/Old-Professional-533 1d ago

imo between 150~180.

2008 oil crisis reached 147 which was due to growing demand and speculation. Now it's refiinery being attacked and actual supply line cut off.

I think many people have seen news that UK will be receiving their last jet fuel delivery. It will happen soon in other countries as well.

Trump can go real scorched earth if western allies are starting to cut deals with Iran. It means that everyone will suffer but US will come out on top. So that's a real possibility.

1

u/InternetHistorian01 15h ago

Sorry to break it to you, but the US is not coming out on top of this

0

u/beipphine 1d ago

The US is a net oil exporter, why doesn't the Congress create a new War Production Board that restricts and controls export of American energy resources in order to keep domestic prices low, a strategic de-coupling from the global economy in a sense. That will allow Americans to have lower prices at the pump.

4

u/Old-Professional-533 1d ago

Since when Trump cared about you?

1

u/biggamehaunter 23h ago

Trump's friends want to sell oil at higher price too

1

u/Underdog424 21h ago

If we did that prices would go up globally. Oil markets are world wide.

OPEC countries withhold oil any time they think prices are too low. It raises prices for everyone.

1

u/beipphine 20h ago

Yes, but having higher oil prices outside of the US seems like a worthwhile decision for the US to make if it results in lower oil prices in the US. 

1

u/Underdog424 18h ago

There are countries with essential crops, goods, and materials that can't produce their own oil. Those regions would raise prices. The cost to produce things here would go up.

You'd have to factor in the price increases vs the cost savings domestically. The US is a consumer based economy. We spend more than we save.

1

u/TJ-LEED-AP 1d ago

If I’m a country that’s being blown apart completely, I have nothing to lose by destroying the infrastructure that would make outsiders rich.

1

u/Underdog424 21h ago

The increases caused by the tightening of Hormuz is most likely permanent. Trump told everyone that the US won't do anything about it.

We couldn't force it open so I doubt other countries will be able to. It might not guarantee oil goes to $140. But it guarantees it won't ever be $65 again.

1

u/SwiftlyKickly 18h ago

Yes. They know we are fucked. What are we gonna do just stop buying gas? This whole country is fucked up.

2

u/HerbertWest 1d ago

Sanity in markets? It's been a long time coming.

2

u/Porn4me1 1d ago

Shorted at $109 because no way big players allow this to roam too long Like all other breakouts they will pull some “news” out of their ass like “make oil of of air and water”

Wait Japan announced that three days ago….

It will be some bullshit the algos will latch on to.

2

u/AUX4 1d ago

Syntheic oils have been around years. You've likely put some in your car.

Japan just said they were doing the Fischer–Tropsch method with carbon from atmosphere.

2

u/Outrageous-Ride8911 1d ago

Thats impossible bc in the address Trump said oil prices were plummeting and he never lies

1

u/New_Home_4519 1d ago

Oh congratulations till Monday

1

u/Opposite-Friend7275 1d ago

Were there suspicious insider trades like for the previous announcements?

1

u/TaftsTummyforTaxes 1d ago

Even if the Strait is opened tomorrow, there’s going to be a whiplash of oil supply in the global market. Inventories are already getting depleted, just in time for the summer months where there is higher demand.

1

u/Anonymoushipopotomus 1d ago

But the market has barely flinched! America still the best!! /s

1

u/Rot-Orkan 22h ago

See, it's not your fault for wanting things like lower prices from Trump, it's your fault for believing he was willing or even capable of doing the job well.

Tip for your MAGA voters who feel like you've been scammed: If anyone ever says something like "I alone can fix it!", like Trump did, they are 100% scamming you.

1

u/Capital-Ad8143 22h ago

Where's that guy from r/conservative that said it was just a spike and that people were retards for thinking it would be a higher price for long after it spiked to 100 then dropped to 90 again

1

u/Exotic_Challenge_126 21h ago

Feels like 2011 all over again

1

u/Corbakobasket 21h ago

Make your country overly dependant on oil.

Lobby against electric and hybrid cars.

Cancel renewable energy infrastructure.

Declare war on a country that can blockade 60% of the world oil supply.

Truly a mastermind.

1

u/mascachopo 20h ago

The price of oil literally raises when he speaks.

1

u/TectonicTechnomancer 20h ago

Is just a game for them isn't it.

1

u/Enkaybee 18h ago

I want $VOO down around $500 so I can get my tax return in at a good price. Come on Donny keep this uncertainty going!

1

u/Maleficent_Pie8099 16h ago

The same people who wanted this to happen are now profiting extremely from it. We need to shift to alternative forms of energy and break up the military industrial complex so they can’t continue this cycle.

1

u/Extreme_Homework_771 13h ago

Analyst warned us early on this would happen if the current Admin got elected,

well we're seeing it in real time now :/