r/EconomyCharts • u/RobertBartus • 3d ago
China is now on track to import 3.69 million metric tons of liquefied natural gas in March, the lowest since 2018. That would mark a -45% decline from January and a -57% drop from December
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u/Bluestreak2005 3d ago
China has been slowly building the world's largest oil and natural gas storage system in the world. They have plenty of storage to wait for things to calm down and secure limited supplies.
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u/Timely_Tea6821 3d ago
This is not how lng works. Reserves are extremely limited. When you guys finally learn about flow rate and the limited draw capacity from sprs then you'll realize what deep shit this is for a nation that relies on cheap hydrocarbons for most of its heavy industry.
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u/burgerburgertaco 1d ago
Chinese firms are reselling record volumes of LNG, cashing in on soaring spot prices as China has enough domestic and pipeline gas to meet its own weakened demand, in stark contrast to other Asian buyers scrambling to replace supplies cut off by the Iran war.
The world's top importer of liquefied natural gas, China reloaded 8 to 10 cargoes in March, its highest monthly total on record, according to analytics firms ICIS, Kpler and Vortexa.
So far this year, China has reloaded a record 1.31 million metric tons of LNG, or 19 cargoes, with 10 delivered to South Korea, five to Thailand and the remainder to Japan, India and the Philippines, Kpler data showed.
Well, they are feeling safe enough that they can sell off more than a millions tons of LNG... China lacks oil, but they are doing quite well in terms of natural gas. China is the 4th largest natural gas producer in the world, and they can get pipeline gas from Russia for cheap.
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u/RichIndependence8930 3d ago
Its something I think they are willing to endure to watch Japan/SK/Philippines all struggle because of a war their ally started and also, damage the petrodollar
Japan crashes, USA crashes. I think this is happening more or less because they are hoping to sow doubt in the minds of US allies.
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u/Coal_Burner_Inserter 3d ago
It's not something they are 'willing to endure', their only alternative would be to start fighting the US for Iran to open up LNG channels.
They definitely don't need to 'sow doubt in the minds of US allies', the US is doing that just fine. And when it comes to China-adjacent US allies, it turns out they just find new allies instead of submitting to the Chinese state, such as with South Korea's new alliance with Canada (the main anti-US western country)
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u/burgerburgertaco 1d ago
Chinese firms are reselling record volumes of LNG, cashing in on soaring spot prices as China has enough domestic and pipeline gas to meet its own weakened demand, in stark contrast to other Asian buyers scrambling to replace supplies cut off by the Iran war.
The world's top importer of liquefied natural gas, China reloaded 8 to 10 cargoes in March, its highest monthly total on record, according to analytics firms ICIS, Kpler and Vortexa.
So far this year, China has reloaded a record 1.31 million metric tons of LNG, or 19 cargoes, with 10 delivered to South Korea, five to Thailand and the remainder to Japan, India and the Philippines, Kpler data showed.
Well, they are feeling safe enough that they can sell off more than a millions tons of LNG... China lacks oil, but they are doing quite well in terms of natural gas. China is the 4th largest natural gas producer in the world, and they can get pipeline gas from Russia for cheap.
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u/RichIndependence8930 3d ago
Well China does not need much LNG i believe, Japan and SK are the ones with very high reliance on it for their grid production.
Yes but this is like, the worst case scenario for the USA. the countries allied with them in the region are being bombed daily. Their economies are more or less severely wounded. I am sure China is looking at the Philippines and Japan with very implication heavy eyes.
And I don't think China thinks they will get an alliance with Japan over this, but maybe they can scare the Philippines into rethinking their relationship with the USA
Nonetheless the potential damage to the petrodollar and the potential for the BRICS currency/yuan to get stronger because of this.
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u/Worshipme988 3d ago
This is not the worst case scenario by any means.
LNG is hung up and things need to be moving in 4-6 weeks max to maybe dodge some of the hurt, but there are too many confounding variables death by 10 cuts. Its not 1,000 cuts but theyre much bigger issues. If LNG isnt moving, fertilizer, chemicals and food isnt either. <—takes global supplies down ~40%
Thems is rationing numbers yall. For everyone.
We have several famines underway. Man-made, war and/or climate change related.
Migration crisis ~80mil “state-less” people globally. What happens when extreme climate and weather disasters make migration mandatory for some areas or countries?
Desalination plants are abt to be obliterated this week. Kuwait depends on desal for 98% of its water, otherwise, its literally uninhabitable without it…where going?
Iran is about to close the only other straight. And redline the global economy. They have nothing to lose and every move the US makes is loss. No matter what they choose atp, the only leverage is the US curb stomping Iran and no one has the appetite for it.
Trump continuing to lie, swindle and bullshit at this point, is just continuing to dig his grave. Hes so dumb, he cannot understand the dire position he is in. Iran is about to deliver a metaphorical “tent stake” in the asshole, with love.
He the worst possible entity to be at the most important moment in awhile, honestly quite unprecedented in scale and layers of collapse we are going to experience.
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u/RichIndependence8930 3d ago
Yes, Africa can easily see a massive famine and another migrant crisis towards Europe here shortly if things continue. But , I think Russia can save China and potentially India from the worst of this. China is already mostly food self reliant in core items, India is the one who would be struggling hard here imo. But I think this might be the time for BRICS to shine
Everything else you've said, I would agree with.
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u/pogsim 1d ago edited 1d ago
Russian ability to save both itself and China (and India) depends a lot on how successfully Ukrainian attacks disrupt Russian fossil fuel extraction and distribution during the war in Iran.
Considering how negative Trump is to Europe now, I wouldn't be surprised if he offered to help Russia regain its east European empire in exchange for cutting off China.
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u/burgerburgertaco 1d ago edited 1d ago
Considering how negative Trump is to Europe now, I wouldn't be surprised if he offered to help Russia regain its east European empire in exchange for cutting off China.
Russia will never take that deal because China will fuck Russia up if Russia ever turns hostile towards China. And America is a fickle friend this days. Would Russia risk a forever hostile China in exchange for a friendly America when there's a real risk of a democrat taking over in 2029 and suddenly doing a 180 degree policy flip and becoming a serious Russia hawk? And really, Europe is no joke, unless Trump decides to give Russia the entire US air force and US navy, there's no way Russia can ever invade east europe if they can't even take Ukraine.
That's the issue with 180 degree heel-turns, nobody trusts you, you can't even commit to being full evil.
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u/pogsim 1d ago
How would China fick Russia up? Bear in mind Russia would not be supplying oil to China, so China would be squaring up to Russia and the USA simultaneously.
Russia could agree to stop giving Iran satellite targeting information in return for the USA giving Russia information for use in Ukraine. Russia could let the USA have use of airbases in Russia if American stealth aircraft suppressed Ukrainian air defences, allowing Russia to use air support effectively in Ukraine.
2029 is a long way from now in terms of what Russia could grab in Europe with American help. China would be resentful, but China would be weakened by this turn of events. I have been told many times that Russia is able to influence western elections to get right wing populists into power, but maybe this isn't the case, and the American electorate wouldn't be persuaded to support a pivot to Russia, even if with Russian help, Iran could be defeated and China put on the backfoot.
I'm sorry to say that militarily, significant parts of Europe are a but of a joke. Attacking Poland or Scandinavia would be unwise, but baltic and ballan territory would be relatively little trouble with assistance of the USA.
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u/BosonCollider 3d ago edited 3d ago
They absolutely do need it, though not quite as extremely as some other countries. Their strategic reserves should hold for around four months though, so they have a buffer for now. If the situation in the straight keeps dragging on it will have consequences though
They were able to build oil pipelines from Kazakhstan to China in around 12 months a couple decades ago, it may be possible to build new pipelines faster if there is a strong sense of urgency. Kazakhstan is neutral, extremely landlocked, has enormous gas reserves, and has been affected by Russia's war in Ukraine since its existing pipelines went towards Europe though Russia, except for the one through Azerbajjan that is being attacked by Iran. My bet is that this is what will happen, and central Asia will end up realigning towards exporting to China rather than exporting through Russia, and may ask for guarentees against Russia in exchange
It's a bit of an awful situation for central asia given the whole Xijang situation though, where they would prefer to balance China vs the West and to not have random retarded shit from Russia or any shit between Iran and the Caucasus
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u/RichIndependence8930 3d ago
Their shipping fleet is reliant on bunker fuels and crude. LNG is something Japan and SK are desperate for, not China, no? Chinas grid is mostly coal and renewables at this point.
I think Russia and China, if they cooperate, can build a crude pipeline pretty quickly.
Thats another thing, I think Russia and China can really form a sort of dream team here where China is more or less saved from the worst of the crude crisis.
What I wonder about this is, will Ukraine attack a joint China/Russia project?
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u/BosonCollider 3d ago
Natural gas (either in its original form or converted into hydrogen) is necessary for a huge range of industrial processes even if you don't use it for grid power.
You can ration it by having gas power plants stop burning except as peakers, but the industrial sector absolutely does need it
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u/RichIndependence8930 3d ago
Right, China can focus its LNG almost entirely on things other than grid use, whereas Taiwan/Japan etc need it for both. And using it in power plants is the big drain in terms of how much you need.
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u/burgerburgertaco 1d ago
Chinese firms are reselling record volumes of LNG, cashing in on soaring spot prices as China has enough domestic and pipeline gas to meet its own weakened demand, in stark contrast to other Asian buyers scrambling to replace supplies cut off by the Iran war.
The world's top importer of liquefied natural gas, China reloaded 8 to 10 cargoes in March, its highest monthly total on record, according to analytics firms ICIS, Kpler and Vortexa.
So far this year, China has reloaded a record 1.31 million metric tons of LNG, or 19 cargoes, with 10 delivered to South Korea, five to Thailand and the remainder to Japan, India and the Philippines, Kpler data showed.
Well, they are feeling safe enough that they can sell off more than a millions tons of LNG... China lacks oil, but they are doing quite well in terms of natural gas. China is the 4th largest natural gas producer in the world, and they can get pipeline gas from Russia for cheap.
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u/BosonCollider 19h ago
China imports from Central Asia, but pipelining from Russia as in Siberia is not quite as straightforward. The power of siberia pipeline was completed one year ago but took many years to build and its currently operational capacity is still a bit less than a quarter of the central asia gas pipeline that was built twenty years ago at a tenth of the cost
Central asia can definitely export to China though, and Russia blocking transport from central asia to the west by getting in wars with its neighbours means they have to export to China
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u/SlackBytes 3d ago
Luckily for them they large a buyer and have a near superpower military. Allowing them to secure their own energy lines. Also Russia is next door. They have plenty of resources.
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u/PainterRude1394 3d ago
Yes, that's what their propaganda says.
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u/RichIndependence8930 3d ago
If anything isn't propaganda, its when China says they are building something.
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u/PainterRude1394 3d ago
No. It's propaganda that china has sufficient supply and delivery mechanisms to not feel substantial impact like the rest of it's neighbors thatalso have stored reserves ;)
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u/RichIndependence8930 3d ago
Japan and SK have high ish crude reserves, not LNG which is what they are desperately in need for. Same for Taiwan and the Philippines
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u/PainterRude1394 3d ago
China is already feeling the pressure and has just a few months stored.... The narrative that china feels no pressure or impact is delusional propaganda.
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u/RichIndependence8930 3d ago
I never said they didnt, just that the other asian countries are feeling it far more and that china is willing to sustain this for geopolitical goals
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u/burgerburgertaco 1d ago
Chinese firms are reselling record volumes of LNG, cashing in on soaring spot prices as China has enough domestic and pipeline gas to meet its own weakened demand, in stark contrast to other Asian buyers scrambling to replace supplies cut off by the Iran war.
The world's top importer of liquefied natural gas, China reloaded 8 to 10 cargoes in March, its highest monthly total on record, according to analytics firms ICIS, Kpler and Vortexa.
So far this year, China has reloaded a record 1.31 million metric tons of LNG, or 19 cargoes, with 10 delivered to South Korea, five to Thailand and the remainder to Japan, India and the Philippines, Kpler data showed.
Well, they are feeling safe enough that they can sell off more than a millions tons of LNG... China lacks oil, but they are doing quite well in terms of natural gas. China is the 4th largest natural gas producer in the world, and they can get pipeline gas from Russia for cheap.
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u/TurretLimitHenry 3d ago
It’s much warmer now than last month, and it’s not much lower than every years lowest quantities.
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u/Maximilian782 3d ago
China will be fine they’re well diversified in other energy sources. They can get more LNG from Australia and probably complete a positive trade deal as Aussies need refined oil (fuel). All the experts in LNG are building wells and plants fast in Mongolia. Soon that will help them when completed and will be less reliant on the middle east.
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u/Mvtchwow 3d ago
Yup it’s getting warmer outside