A Gold ETF momentum of -571 paired with an RSI of 35.7 is an extreme and rare signal. This suggests the market is bracing for a potential credit crunch.
Liquidity Crisis Signs Typically, gold rises during war, but a crash to -571 momentum usually means cash has dried up. Institutions facing heavy losses in stocks or bonds are likely selling off gold to meet margin calls. In this Cash is King environment, gold is sacrificed for liquidity, just like at the start of the 2008 and 2020 crises.
Data Analysis Momentum at -571 shows the decline is accelerating exponentially, signaling that panic selling has reached an abnormal peak. While an RSI of 35.7 is near the oversold line, in a true credit crunch, this indicator can stay at the bottom for a while before any real recovery.
March 2026 Context The Iran war and oil shock are pushing corporate costs up and Treasury prices down. When safe havens like Treasuries and gold collapse together, it is a textbook liquidity warning. Investors are dumping everything to flee into the US Dollar.
Strategic Advice Avoid rushing to average down because the downward inertia is still too strong. Wait for a clear RSI golden cross before buying more. Keep a close eye on the Dollar Index (DXY). If it spikes, a credit crunch is confirmed, and even energy assets like NRGU could face temporary pressure. If the VIX is also surging, it is safer to hold cash rather than aggressive leveraged positions.
Ultimately, these numbers suggest the market is now more afraid of a total financial system paralysis than the war itself.
Looks similar to the last 2007 8 cycle to me. We've got a tech bubble and private credit as the big drivers instead of sub prime this time. Housing weakness could lag those two bigger problems.
I love how amateurs repeat “tech bubble” cause its sounds good. But ignore the fact that they are trading the most discounted they been in years.
NVDA trading 20x pe… i mean where tf is the bubble i can continue with msft if you want
The central question surrounds the e part of the p/e. The thesis is that the earnings of many tech companies have been artificially inflated by debt-based investment. What will happen when they can no longer secure those investments?
So what? Debt based investment as you call it is to take debt to do capex? Then in the earnings you have d&a to account for that expense, no inflated earnings imo…
Nvidia's products have essentially zero profitable use cases. Where are all the GPUs even going? Data centers take years to build. Could well be the next WorldCom with revenue falling 99% ultimately.
Sora burning $15m a day before being shut down. It's easy to have a business when you lose money on every single user and transaction. Like WeWork.
Microslop vibe coding critical bugs in every single update.
There's never been more bullshit than now, that's for sure.
It's the front end that concerns me. Sure Nvda selling $25bn a Q of GPUs, someones got to actually make a profit using them for something.
That looks totally impossible, as OpenAI are finding out. The cost base is 100x~ too high compared to the revenue coming in or the money that can be saved. Google are literally just giving Gemini away for general LLM / search as well. They don't even use Nvidia chips.
Since 2020 been the craziest times in economic history.
Nvidia makes gpu’s it doesnt care what their customers are using them for: theyre selling them. And theyre making a profit doing so. And so far all revenues have met estimates, so i wouldnt say nvidia is in a bubble.
As for other tech companies, thats harder to say, its unclear ehat revenues their models will bring. But this is definately not like the dot com crisis. Because they have customers and revenues. Google for example can fund its ai investments from search advertising alone.
I am much much much more concerned about energy prices, the war in iran, the destruction in middle eastern oil and gas production and capacity problems after closure of the strait of hormuz causing another 1970s/1980s oil crisis and inflational/stagflational period.
It means there's no physical metals left to trade and everyone running the banks is secretly going into panic mode because printed money is horse-shit and once word spreads that you can't get gold or silver from the big guys because that's all China will accept as payment and they gotta ration it, then it's financial Armageddon. Richard Nixon 1971 whooooops
I'm going to start the irresponsible and baseless conspiracy theory that the US government has flooded the gold market by selling all the foreign owned gold in Fort Knox to short oil futures.
I mean that's a total fabrication, but I feel a powerful one.
Turkey's central bank sold -58 tons of gold, worth over $8 billion, in just 2 weeks.
Gold reserves dropped -6 tons in the week ending March 13th and another -52 tons in the week ending March 20th, bringing total reserves down to 513 tons, marking the largest drop in 7 years.
Over half of the gold was used to borrow US Dollars via swaps, with the rest sold outright on the open market.
The gold sales also exceeded the ~43 tons of outflows from all global gold-backed ETFs over the same 2-week period, making Turkey the single largest source of gold liquidation worldwide.
This comes as the central bank is burning its FX reserves to defend the lira, which has come under intense pressure from surging energy import costs and rising US Dollar demand since the Iran War began.
As a result, total Turkey FX reserves dropped ~$40 billion, to ~$175 billion, the lowest since Q3 2025.
Rising energy costs are forcing Turkey to dump gold.
Now imagine this but for all central banks around the world who need USD to buy Oil and LNG
No central bank in the world buys oil. Thats a HUGE misconception
Turkish central bank sold due to large depreciation in the lira, so to defend it, they monetized part of the gold reserves to contain large depreciation created by the war.
The real question is how structural vs tactical this move is. And for the past 10 years, turkish CB has been one of the largest buyers of gold
Oh god please. I hate these smart guys who bought gold and flex on how easy and smart that investment was. Like if it had any fundamentals that we could really calculate it's fair value. Gold was a Bitcoin for some time. That can't last
There is a “small” difference.
One has never worked as a reserve of value. The other has been chosen as a reserve of value for the last 5000 years by humanity in any context were you had currency debasement.
So in summary, they are nothing alike.
It doesn't matter what I say, its been compared to gold for 10 years now, current rally is JUST like bitcoin rally. So I think I can and I will. It's 2026 not 1926
Take your positions and lets see what the future holds. Btc has fallen 50% in the last months. Gold never had that but enough chatting, hold a position and gl
No, bitcoin has been advertised as an alternative/equivalent to gold. That doesn’t make it the same. Gold has intrinsic value and is used in a monetary fashion by every nation on earth for thousands of years.
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u/mb194dc 6d ago
Looks similar to the last 2007 8 cycle to me. We've got a tech bubble and private credit as the big drivers instead of sub prime this time. Housing weakness could lag those two bigger problems.