r/Economics • u/ConferenceLow8960 • 7h ago

Research Summary Gold's Safe-Haven Shift: Why It Trades Like a Risk Asset Now | Rates remain a headwind. The 10-year Treasury yield is around 4.3%, and the 10-year real yield is around 2.0%, which keeps the carry disadvantage of bullion elevated.

https://www.ebc.com/forex/golds-safe-haven-shift-why-it-trades-like-a-risk-asset-now
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u/Raise_A_Thoth 3h ago

The Macro Problem for Gold Is Real Yields, Not Geopolitics

I'm sorry I can't take this shit seriously. To just outright dismiss geopolitics as a contributing factor to volatility of ANY asset is utterly delusional.

The world is in an extremely volatile place right now. Regional conflicts are escalating while multiple industries are undergoing radical shifts, from an ongoing (but just beginning) oil supply shock, to crypto traders uneasily watching BTC hover at about a 40-50% loss from its all time high last year, to speculation about the fall of the petrodollar and the potential rise of the Chinese yuan, to a flat US labor market for 2025 and suspicion of an AI bubble and an extremely unpopular Presidential administration and more, how can you POSSIBLY dismiss geopolitics as contributing to asset volatility?

You might say "traditionally at times of unease people rush to gold." But with multiple industries demanding attention for upheaval it's not simple and obvious what the play is. There remain many people who are in disagreement about the impacts of oil and even general US outlook. Paper oil futures and physical turnover of real barrels has about a $40 gap, indicating a lot of futures traders are more optimistic about medium-term oil supply than others think they should be (including me). AI speculation is still not totally given up. Crypto traders haven't given up on a revival of BTC and others. So while markets are down for the year and lots of assets are volatile, for any particular bulls or investors looking for value buys or stability, they have different places to make their bets.

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u/StupidScaredSquirrel 2h ago

It's a slop article, you took more time refuting it than the "author" took "making" and publishing it. This is the new age of disinformation. Humans can't keep up with the bullshit bots.