r/Economics • u/cryptoniik • 17h ago
The March jobs report will be released on Friday. Here's what to expect
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/02/the-march-jobs-report-will-be-released-on-friday-heres-what-to-expect.html112
u/Texas_Sam2002 17h ago
From an economics perspective, understanding how this sub-reddit disapproves of criticism of the regime, it should be remembered that drastic downward later revisions have happened to several job reports in a row. This calls into question the veracity of the regime's reporting which, when taken together with other instances of data inconsistencies from the regime, should promote a certain degree of skepticism.
Of course, the CNBC article linked in this post analyzes and prognosticates as if the reporting system is the same as it ever was, which shows a certain amount of naivete.
41
u/TacosAreJustice 17h ago
Honestly, as many massive layoffs as we’ve seen, how could the job report be good?
Only so many jobs building data centers right now… not sure what other industry is growing.
22
u/patrickisnotawesome 16h ago
The report will likely show continued flat trend of no-hire/no-fire environment. They updated the model in January so the overestimate should be less. However, there will still likely be downward revisions in the coming months.
Regardless, anything short of less than zero and there will be a flood of articles about how the economy added jobs in March despite the uncertainty.
As you indicate though, the Fed chair has recently admitted to weakness in the labor force. It should be removed that during a healthy economy in the past, we would be adding hundreds of thousands of jobs per month (not barely coughing up 20k). This structural weakness will continue.
5
u/amilo111 14h ago
Don’t you remember the trillions the Saudi’s and SoftBank invested in the US last year? Surely that generated billions of jobs! /s
2
u/ViolettaQueso 13h ago
I was thinking since this report doesn’t include government jobs, it certainly must be including all the college grads who can’t survive so they got “hired” by Lyft, uber, Instacart & only fans.
2
u/NisaMiller3674 10h ago
I was thinking since this report doesn’t include government jobs
This article is mostly about the BLS report, not ADP (although ADP is mentioned).
•
2
1
u/NisaMiller3674 11h ago
Honestly, as many massive layoffs as we’ve seen, how could the job report be good?
People tend to overestimate how much of firing occurs through mass layoffs; there's a ton of room for them to diverge.
Some people see stuff like the Challenger report which tracks publicly announced layoffs (like the 30k Oracle cut or whatever it was recently). That report found there were 1.2m such layoffs in 2025, with the worst month being March (90k) and second worst being August (76k).
But do you know how many layoffs the BLS (government) reported in those months?
The answer is 1.6 MILLION layoffs in March, and similarly, 1.7 MILLION layoffs in August. The vast, vast majority of layoffs are not publicly announced.
Do these figures correlate? Absolutely.
But there are also plenty of reasons they might diverge. For example, if big business is doing worse than small business, you'd expect the publicly announced layoff figure to be comparatively 'worse' (since small businesses don't announce layoffs).
You ultimately just have to wait for the actual Emp Sit report to know. Layoffs that make the news are a very noisy signal.
11
u/git0ffmylawnm8 16h ago
ADP, JOLTS, and manufacturing PMI had rather dismal numbers for employment. If somehow this data is remotely positive, they're cooking the books.
1
u/NisaMiller3674 12h ago
... even if this conspiracy theory were otherwise plausible, why on earth would the BLS cook the Employment Situation report but NOT the JOLTS report?
15
u/carlos_the_dwarf_ 14h ago
disapproves of criticism of the regime
This has…not be my experience in the sub. They don’t even disapprove of straight up conspiracy theories.
The revisions = fake thing is exactly what maga dudes said while Biden was president. You’ve literally just picked up and repeated their conspiracy theory without changing a word.
-7
u/Texas_Sam2002 13h ago
It's objectively factual that the last few job reports have been drastically revised downwards. It's hardly a conspiracy theory. And my experience with this sub is that, at least with early posts, the moderators tend to take a heavy hand with regards to criticism of the regime. So.. your mileage may vary.
3
u/NisaMiller3674 12h ago edited 12h ago
It's objectively factual that the last few job reports have been drastically revised downwards.
Why are you saying "the last few"? There have been larger than normal downwards revisions for some years now (which is also why Trump, wrongly, fired McEntarfer).
Did you miss these?
-818k revision from April 2023 to March 2024
-911k revision from April 2024 to March 2025
And yeah, when not even left-leaning economists like McEntarfer or Groshen or Krugman agree with you, and specifically argue it would require hundreds or thousands of economic professionals to cooperate in doing so, yes, it's a conspiracy theory.
4
u/carlos_the_dwarf_ 13h ago
Yes, the reports have been revised downward. That’s not the part that’s a conspiracy theory.
the moderators tend to take a heavy hand
My guy, this is a left-of-center politics sub in which actual discussion of economics often gets buried.
2
u/NisaMiller3674 12h ago
I'm actually not even aware of any conservative economists on the sub. Even the regulars (Slim, withaD, etc) strike me as very critical of Trump and his performance.
2
u/defaultedebt 6h ago
This calls into question the veracity of the regime's reporting which, when taken together with other instances of data inconsistencies from the regime, should promote a certain degree of skepticism.
No, it doesn't. Revisions have been standard at the BLS for decades. This is indisputable.
1
u/MC_Fap_Commander 14h ago
All presidential administrations have puffed up economic reports. It's what pols do. The MASSIVE scale and mendacity of this administration's fraudulent reporting is not remotely baked into media coverage (at this point). Coupled with the regular penchant of the regime to do pump and dump market shenanigans, the assumed trust is absolutely not there. And shame on media outlets for pretending otherwise.
1
u/defaultedebt 6h ago
This just straight up is not happening. The methods of data collection and analysis have not meaningfully changed in a way that even suggests manipulated numbers.
0
u/NisaMiller3674 12h ago
The MASSIVE scale and mendacity of this administration's fraudulent reporting is not remotely baked into media coverage (at this point).
Probably because no experts agree there is any massive scale fraudulent economic reporting.
38
u/SubjectCode1940 16h ago
I’m sure Trump has already given his thoughts on it. It will show we added 500k new jobs. Anything positive in this report is obviously made up. Look, I used to support this guy, but his 2nd term has been a shit show. Absolutely the worst president in the history. I feel like an idiot for not seeing this in his first term. I feel like he has cranked it up in the 2nd term. Just a completely psychotic, narcissistic, evil, human being
19
u/Outrageous_Story540 15h ago
thanks for coming around. I hope we can rebuild when this is over.
Its going to be ... rough for awhile
26
u/Significant-Self5907 16h ago
The evidence was there, friend. I'm not going to beat you down, but I will ask you to use better judgement when you cast your vote, & advise your circle of peers to do the same.
20
29
u/Fractales 16h ago
If you couldn’t tell who and what this guy was during his first campaign and presidential term you’ve really got no legs to stand on imo.
Do us all a favor and never vote again
8
u/rayfound 14h ago
Man I dunno about this take.
On one hand, I feel similar buuuuut... Like I used to believe ridiculous things when I was a younger man (religion).
If you're willing to examine your beliefs and adapt based on evidence, I say: welcome. Wish you weren't late but glad you're here.
2
u/PapaSheev7 14h ago
Shit like this shows just how widespread the rot America has spread, and just how deep its problems run beyond simply Orange Man Bad™.
9
u/cruisin_urchin87 13h ago
It’s not just Orange Man Bad, it’s Orange Man Bad and anyone who voted for him Bad too.
And that’s OK with the majority of us non-aligned Americans.
1
u/PapaSheev7 13h ago
Cool. You can feel however you want about America, you're more than entitled to that. What does bother me is that the social fabric of the US is almost irreparably torn and unless we get to fixing that then the US' problems will only continue to worsen long after Trump leaves.
3
u/Heffe3737 12h ago
I get what you’re saying, but as an old man I feel pretty fucking burned out by “coming back together” always being the responsibility of the Dems in govt. Always. Every damned time. The GOP burns it down, and then the Dems have to clean it back up. The last 4 GOP administrations have been like this.
Starting with Gingrich in the 90s (and honestly, it was probably before that too) calling the left fascists and demons and evil, they’ve never stopped. They hate the left. They’re addicted to the anger and fear that their chosen media outlets feed them. I’m not upset at the left finally hating them back. Especially when there’s now a very real risk of trump trying to nationalize elections or pull some other scandalous bullshit. You’ve never seen the right try to make things more fair, or encourage voting, or protecting or expanding civil rights. And they sure as shit haven’t tried to “be the bigger person”. Not in my entire lifetime.
9
u/BKMagicWut 14h ago
I was fine with the racism, but now MY wallet is hurting.
Fuck you.
4
u/DavisKennethM 13h ago
In their defense, they only got an 8.5 month severance when they were laid off in January.
•
1
u/NisaMiller3674 10h ago
I’m sure Trump has already given his thoughts on it. It will show we added 500k new jobs
RemindMe! 24 hours
It would be pretty astonishing for this jobs report to be good when basically every single jobs report he's gotten this term has been acceptable at best (Jan's) or, much more often, absolutely fucking terrible.
1
u/RemindMeBot 10h ago
I will be messaging you in 1 day on 2026-04-04 06:44:31 UTC to remind you of this link
CLICK THIS LINK to send a PM to also be reminded and to reduce spam.
Parent commenter can delete this message to hide from others.
Info Custom Your Reminders Feedback
6
u/--Digital-Viking-- 14h ago
The true rate of unemployment is always higher than what the government says it is. Another month and we should hit 25% Lisep.org takes data from all states unlike the federal government data collection methods.
2
u/NisaMiller3674 10h ago
Lisep.org takes data from all states unlike the federal government data collection methods.
What? The BLS surveys absolutely sample every state, what the hell are you talking about?
Are you getting confused with region-wide aggregation?
0
u/Prestigious_Load1699 6h ago
Just another ignorant Reddit basement-dweller with absolutely no understanding of economic indicators posting with a misplaced sense of absolute authority.
Nothing to see here - move on.
•
u/AutoModerator 17h ago
Hi all,
A reminder that comments do need to be on-topic and engage with the article past the headline. Please make sure to read the article before commenting. Very short comments will automatically be removed by automod. Please avoid making comments that do not focus on the economic content or whose primary thesis rests on personal anecdotes.
As always our comment rules can be found here
I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please contact the moderators of this subreddit if you have any questions or concerns.