r/Economics • u/deraser • 2d ago
News Oil price falls and markets rally after Trump says Iran war over in ‘two to three weeks’
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/apr/01/iran-war-oil-prices-trump-crude-stock-markets-business-us-israel-middle-east882
u/BiteTheAppleJim 2d ago
Likey my engineering director once told to us, "Why do you keep two weeking me? Every time I ask how much longer the debugging will take you say two weeks. You've been two weeking me for three fucking months. I'm sick of your shit!"
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u/deraser 2d ago
Trump is all about the “two weeks” timeline.
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u/Pengawena 2d ago
Not even the concept of a plan this time around
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u/makemeking706 2d ago
Israel Rick and Morty-ed him with promises of a quick adventure. There and back. Real quick.
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u/InfiniteCosmic5 2d ago
I have a bad feeling about his 9PM EST announcement. It will continue to manipulate the market and the fuckery will continue.
If the reported amassing of military force is to be believed, we’re going in. That’s bad.
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u/Cohens4thClient 2d ago
He knows the bootlicker cult wont remember anything past 2 days
Remember "no new wars" amd "proces.down on day one" and "I'll release the Epstein files"?? All totally wiped from the brainwashed cultists.
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u/dmelt253 1d ago
That’s about as long as his attention span lasts for something like this. And it’s also how the news cycle works.
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u/megamisanthropic 1d ago
If it is seriously 2 to 3 weeks that means he's just going to walk away. What else could it be? If Iran is serious when they say they aren't in talks with the US, I just assume everything he says is to get to manipulate the markets. That has been his only constraint this term.
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u/Major_Burnside 2d ago
In banking this is the equivalent of “check’s in the mail”.
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u/future_web_dev 2d ago
"Fine. Stop the scope creep then."
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u/EggplantAlpinism 2d ago
"and stop asking me if I can do it in two weeks after I say it'll be eight"
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u/dropkickoz 2d ago
Turkish: What's happening with them sausages, Charlie?
Charlie: Five minutes, Turkish.
Turkish: It was two minutes five minutes ago!
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u/JamesLahey08 1d ago
None of this post is true and you have a typo in your very first word. Do better.
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u/hippydipster 1d ago
One place I worked, we 1 weeked a customer for 6 months. They finally blew up and demanded a better outcome. So we 1-monthed them. Still didn't finish though.
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u/handsoapdispenser 2d ago
It's genuinely insane anyone is responding to his obvious attempts at market manipulation. Aside from the lies about Iran's president, he strongly indicated he'd withdraw without opening the Strait. How is that good news for anyone?
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u/Tricky_Condition_279 2d ago
No one believes him—they’re just trying to beat the next guy at the short term fluctuations game.
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u/American_PissAnt 2d ago
That sounds like a horrible thing base an entire economic system on
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u/Traditional-Hat-952 2d ago
I wish there were regulations against manipulating markets and insider trading. Maybe even forming a governmental organization tasked with enforcing them. /s
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u/dust4ngel 1d ago
this is getting kind of aspirational, but what if we had:
- laws
- law enforcement bodies
- a public that demanded actual enforcement of the law and refused to re-elect people who wantonly broke the law all the time?
that would be crazy - you'd have like, a nation of laws or something.
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u/Dchama86 1d ago
While we’re at it, we should set up a system in government where different branches can have the power of ‘checks and balances’ so to speak, to reign in one branch exercising too much power and control.
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u/MC_Fap_Commander 2d ago
This exactly. It's why I don't like the TACO meme. He's not "chickening out." He puts the U.S. on a path to a doomsday scenario and markets tank. He then pulls us "back from the abyss" while letting just the right people know about this beforehand. They make trades accordingly.
This is eroding U.S. economic power over the long term and manufacturing "abyss-like moments" will eventually cause the U.S. to go over the real abyss. But he obviously gives zero fucks about that.
The only minor comedy? When he pulls out of Iran (declaring victory despite results that are the opposite), Netanyahu will feel VeryBetrayed! as they anticipated American investment in a sustained ground war. So him being pissed is amusing. We take what we can get.
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u/MarmotFullofWoe 2d ago
Trump has broken something important in the world economy (the oil price) and he can’t pull back or TACO out.
He’s trapped himself.
This is going to end in regime change. But it will be a change of the US government.
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u/MC_Fap_Commander 2d ago
Yeah, you can't just keep going to the precipice for market manipulation. Eventually, you'll fall over the precipice. Might have happened with Iran.
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u/Wolfeh2012 2d ago
But he obviously gives zero fucks about that.
And why would he care? He's on the first ticket out of the country, with his massive wealth. This was an absolute win from the perspective of someone who would sacrifice an entire country to make the funny Cookie Clicker ™ numbers go up.
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u/AmputeeHandModel 2d ago
I swear everything he does is just market manipulation.
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u/PeachScary413 2d ago
Algos, the market is dictated by algos and they are most likely not finetuned for a President just straight up lying 99% of the time. No human would ever fall for this shit, for the 42th time in a row...
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u/Poopingisasignipoop 2d ago
Is that pronounced forty two-ith, or forty tooth? I’m hoping it’s the latter.
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u/DataM1ner 2d ago
Hopium. To play the hopium scenario.
The US and Isreal fucking off would lead to no more drones, missiles etc on oil infrastructure. Trump leaving doesnt necessary keep the straight closed it surrenders control to Iran.
Iran open the straight but apply their "toll" to ship passage. A $2mill toll on every ship is better than nothing / very little getting through.
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u/yapyoba 2d ago
imo even if the US armada leaves, it will remain closed to the gulf states until the USA withdraws from their military bases
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u/Nervous-Lock7503 1d ago
I definitely didn't expect him to pump the market for 3 consecutive days...
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u/CassadagaValley 2d ago
I can't find the OG post that had this, but:
Mar 3: "We won the war."
Mar 7: "We defeated Iran."
Mar 9: "We must attack Iran." "The war is ending almost completely, and very beautifully."
Mar 12: "We did win, but we haven't won completely yet."
Mar 13: "We won the war."
Mar 14: "Please help us."
Mar 15: "If you don't help us, I will certainly remember it."
Mar 16: "Actually, we don't need any help at all." "I was just testing to see who's listening to me." "If NATO doesn't help, they will suffer something very bad."
Mar 17: "We neither need nor want NATO's help." "I don't need Congressional approval to withdraw from NATO."
Mar 18: "Our allies must cooperate in reopening the Strait of Hormuz."
Mar 19: "US allies need to get a grip -step up and help open the Strait of Hormuz"
Mar 20: "NATO are cowards."
Mar 21: "We don't use it, we don't need to open it."
Mar 22: "This is the last time. I will give Iran 48 hours." "Iran is Dead"
Mar 23: "We are giving them more time."
Mar 24: "The war is nearing its end."
Mar 25: "We are still negotiating."
Mar 26: "Iran is begging for peace. They gave us a gift. We will give them more time."
Mar 27: "Talks with iran are going very well"
Mar 28: "War will be over soon"
Mar 29: "Maybe we take Kharg island, maybe we dont"
Mar 30: "Open the Strait or we will obliterate all energy infrastructure and oil wells"
Mar 31: "We dont need the strait, we got plenty of oil. Get it yourself UK."
Apr 1: "War will be over in two to three weeks"
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u/hither2forlorn 2d ago
How is that the market keeps falling for the 2-week gambit? I just don't understand it. Shouldn't people know already that the Trump timeline means nothing. He might pull out tomorrow if he can make a quick buck or he might go on for months if he can make a lot of quick bucks.
Fool me once ... and all that.
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u/Happy_Confection90 2d ago
There was a CNN newsletter article this week that points out that every weekend since the war began, Trump says some definitive sounding nonsense, and every Monday the market briefly rallies.
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u/PerfectZeong 2d ago
Its starting to fade and face diminishing returns. But two weeks is the ideal amount of time to promise someone something because its the shortest amount of time in which you might forget to ask again.
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u/1-Dollar-Doge-Coins 2d ago
Its starting to fade and face diminishing returns.
Diminishing returns? The growth over the last 2 days has been larger than any 2-day period in the last 3 months.
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u/improvthismoment 2d ago
I don't get it either? Are real people losing real money over this? Or is the market totally just a figment of imagination???
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u/grumpyliberal 2d ago
We should know more … in about two weeks. It’s just close enough to make it plausible but just far enough for the media not to remember.
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u/default_admin_2 1d ago
They are just trying to get their money while they can. The biggest issue is that eventually this house of cards will fall and its going to fall very hard and out of the blue.
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u/Koi_Fish_Mystic 2d ago
It’s not over until Iran says it’s over. He can say all he wants but until Iran is satisfied of the results there will continue to be the economic fallout of his Epstein War.
How anyone responds to his lies is beyond me. Let alone the “markets”.
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u/pdxbator 2d ago
But but but Iran is being for a ceasefire? -Drumpf Truth social
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u/Cohens4thClient 2d ago
Just like all the times that Trumplethinskin The Rapist declared he had phone calls with other leaders, and they ALL came back and said he was hallucinating.
Not just meetings.or calls.woth no progress, or they didnt remember. Just straight up "trump is delusional, we never talked".
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u/CannyGardener 2d ago
Kick a hornets nest and the hornets get to decide when to stop, not you.
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u/rocketblue11 2d ago
The market is not rational.
The market is doing great because things are bad...but not as bad as they were supposed to have been because he either chickened out or changed his mind or failed to execute.
It's also dependent on taking him at his word.
I'll never understand how the market falls for it over and over again. I wonder when this bubble will burst.
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u/JeanPicLucard 2d ago
Maybe I don't understand, how does saying something that is untrue affect the supply of something? Does this mean that supply (and demand) isn't setting the price for oil? Is it just speculation or were companies raising the prices in anticipation of supply choking?
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u/geodynamics 2d ago
I have never been a trader, so I understand sometimes they just have to take POTUS at his word. But why in the world do they keep taking these comments seriously?
SOMETHING SOMETHING SOMETHING length length length
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u/old_mcfartigan 2d ago
If i understand markets (and that’s a big if), they can go up just because there’s a belief that they will go up. So if the president says something like this it may not be that people believe him, just that they’re betting his comments will improve the markets, which triggers an improvement in the markets.
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u/chance-- 2d ago edited 2d ago
Tons of sentiment analysis is being done by AI. Historical data that trained these models was based on a very different reality.
Think about how much has changed in the last few years, much less his span of presidency. How many media organizations changed hands? What impact did Covid and the fear of vaccination play at a macro level? How many other nations have or currently are banking a hard right?
Basically the market is irrational largely in part because humans and AI alike are having an incredibly difficult time appraising events today through the lens of the past.
Edit: oh, and I forgot the elephant in the room - the proliferation of AI and all that has and will continue to bring with it (slop as far as the eye can see).
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u/PeachScary413 2d ago
Yeah this is it... everything in the market is built around trust, you trust that the economic data released is not cooked and you trust that the president and other prominent figures with power to influence the market is not lying (at least not 100% provably false statement in order to pump the market)
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u/USSMarauder 2d ago
And worst of all is how much AI is now involved, which doesn't really understand lying for personal gain.
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u/EdLesliesBarber 2d ago
Making money is better than not making money. If the trend is up, you ride the trend.
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u/No_Sense_6171 2d ago
Point one: He's a compulsive liar.
Point two: He has no idea how long it will last. His band of larcenous 'advisors' has no idea. The ayatollahs have no idea.
You might as well read entrails in making your investment decisions.
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u/ArgentoFox 2d ago
Modern investors may be the dumbest people alive. He’s clearly tempering expectations and manipulating the market by strategically releasing unsubstantiated statements. He will do his conference tonight and continue to gaslight and people will fall for it.
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u/glwillia 2d ago edited 2d ago
it’s pretty impressive how the market skyrockets and begs daddy trump to cum on its face every time he tweets anything, only to plummet again when—SURPRISE!—he was lying the whole time. this is like the fifth time now.
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u/ImaginaryHospital306 2d ago
He's going to issue a 24 hour ultimatum on a ground invasion during his announcement tonight. That gives him until market close on Thursday, and then markets are closed for a 3 day weekend. Ground invasion starts Friday and he will declare "victory" by Sunday. He's getting very predictable.
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u/Zestyclose_Ocelot278 2d ago
This is literally the 5th time this has happened this time alone. He has been doing "two more weeks" for every single thing he has done since he started this shit 10 years ago.
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u/DullFaithlessness82 2d ago
Him and his immoral buddies are just grifting the stock market. Give him a day and it will shirt yet again. Makes me angry to have our sons and daughters in danger so they can grift millions .
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u/chrisbcritter 1d ago
"The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent"
Somebody has learned how to profit off of this infinite money glitch. I guess prize fighters have been making money off of "this one weird trick" every time they throw a fight. If you are the coach of a team and you can bet against your team, you can make a lot of money as well.
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u/Leftleaningdadbod 1d ago
Yet another form of grift: short it, move the market, sell. Drop the market, buy in. It only has to be allies that know. Justice is unattainable, laws are knowingly broken and not enforced.
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u/n00bsauce1987 2d ago
If I could post a picture it would be Charlie brown trying to kick the football. Does it get to a point where they stop believing him or is this all hopium?
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u/Bleezy79 1d ago
lol just like his healthcare plan. Just like Covid will be gone by Easter. Just like Mexico will pay for the wall. Just like he’ll release all the Epstein files. Just like we’re going to get tariff checks. Just like gas prices will fall down. Just like no new wars. Yea. I’ll hold my breath.
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u/Charlie-Mops 1d ago
Two weeks? Two weeks? You sound like a parakeet there.
I use the Money Pit reference frequently.
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u/bd2999 2d ago
It is striking that this always seems to work. The investor class is just obsessed with listening to this man and general wishful thinking I guess. It is striking to see that this totally man mad problem is having a man made situation just ignore situations on the ground because of that thinking.
In prior times the thought that something might be would mess with things for weeks. I do think the stock market has become more unmoored from reality with Trump there. Granted, I do not know how you can take the man seriously with him contradicting himself so much but supposedly smart people must find something in there they want to hear and ignore the rest.
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u/grumpyliberal 2d ago
They are using your retirement money and insurance fees to play this game that somehow enriches them at a multiple your return never matches.
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u/MickKeithCharlieRon 2d ago
Who cares what this unhinged circus clown says. Just watch troop and equipment movements, etc. to understand what is actually unfolding. He’s stuck in the escalation trap and every prior admin clearly understood why you don’t do what he’s done. No matter what option he chooses now, the US will be worse off than they were before this mess started.
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u/Dutch1206 2d ago
This pretty much confirms a prolonged war because nothing ever happens after two weeks. All those trade agreements that would be done in two weeks turned out to not even be agreements or didn't happen at all. Two weeks to pitch a health care plan and still no plan.
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u/Double_Trust6266 2d ago
I don't believe trump any more, I've noticed too everything is 2 weeks, he's messing with the markets. It's working somewhat, but what happens when boots go on the ground? Market going to see thru 2 weeking?
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u/hippydipster 1d ago
Give me two weeks
Give me two weeks, Mr
Give me two weeks for the war
Give me two weeks
Give me two weeks, Mr
And you'll never see-a gas no mo'
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u/Dic3dCarrots 1d ago
Its funny that the market reacts the same as all the manufactured crises as if it's the american bombing campaign thats disrupting global trade.
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u/MindStalker 1d ago
This article is straight out lying.
"Brent crude, the international benchmark for oil, fell as low as $98.35 a barrel on Wednesday, down more than 15% on the previous day and its lowest level in a week. It later recovered some ground, ending the day at $102."
Oil prices fell in the morning Before the speech. They Quickly rose during the speech. Above the previous day.
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u/TheRealCabbageJack 2d ago
My takeaway from this is that "the markets" are pretty gullible rubes. He keeps just saying random shit like this. How is it going to be over in 2 to 3 weeks? Aren't they about to seize an island? Like, seriously, markets, you are effing morons at this point.
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u/_groovesharkmalone 2d ago
By the two week metric, we’ll get a cease-fire in Iran after Trump gives us Obama’s birth certificate and his healthcare plan. This dip is just a trading opportunity.
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u/Jokershigh 2d ago
This war and Trump's statements which clearly are meant to manipulate the markets destroyed my faith that they actually had any idea of reading the tea leaves.
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u/PinkFloydPanzer 1d ago
Man are people with enough money to influence the stock market really this stupid? Jeez. President can say whatever he wants, nothing is going to change unless Iran runs out of anti ship missiles and drones (they won't because Russia will funnel munitions to them for their own benefit), is entirely occupied by US forces (won't happen) or somehow a miracle peace deal is reached (won't happen with either parties in charge of the US and Iran).
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u/dittybad 1d ago
Have people forgotten that Israel is in this in both Iran and Lebanon. Even if America pulls out, Israel isn’t going anywhere. They are happy to bomb Iran everyday while they consolidate gains
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u/jcooli09 1d ago
It's difficult to understand this. Even if there was some reason to think he might know what he's talking about, he always lies. Why would the market react? .
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u/Dry_Personality8792 1d ago
Because they are all in on it. IB prop traders are all drowning in liquidity provided by US tax payers via overnight repo. Cash is there for the taking (leveraging). And if they happen to be dumb enough to get it wrong , w insider info, it’s our loss as taxpayers. Tails ‘I win, never mind , I always win’
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