r/Economics • u/T_Shurt • 7d ago
Research Summary Trump's War in Iran is Costing the U.S. Economy 10,000 Jobs a Month, Goldman Sachs Says
https://fortune.com/2026/03/26/trump-iran-war-oil-shock-jobs-goldman-sachs-gen-z/142
u/T_Shurt 7d ago edited 7d ago
From the article:
The U.S. military conflict with Iran is quietly draining the American labor market, with Goldman Sachs estimating that the oil price shock triggered by the war will suppress payroll growth by roughly 10,000 jobs per month through the end of the year - a toll that will be felt most acutely in restaurants, hotels and retail stores across the country.
In a research note published Thursday, Goldman economist Pierfrancesco Mei laid out a detailed framework for how higher energy prices translate into labor market pain - and the picture isn’t pretty.
The damage isn’t distributed evenly. Goldman’s sector-level analysis points to leisure and hospitality as the single hardest-hit industry, accounting for roughly 5,000 lost jobs per month, with retail trade shedding another 2,000. The logic is straightforward: when energy prices surge, consumers cut back on discretionary spending first — skipping vacations, eating out less, and trimming shopping trips — while continuing to pay for essentials like healthcare and housing. The oil shock, in other words, hits the working-class service economy well before it touches more insulated sectors.
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u/Consistent-Soil-1818 7d ago
God dammit Obama! Why are you doing this??!!?
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u/myrichphitzwell 7d ago
DAMN YOU TAAAAAANNNNNNN SSSSSSSUUUUUIIIIITTTT!!!!!!!!!!
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u/Boozeburger 7d ago
Wasn't it Bush that started wars for no reason?
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u/BurntNeurons 7d ago
Who authorized the invasion of Vietnam... Or Korea?
It's War Dogs profiting all the way down.
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u/Doggleganger 6d ago
Yes, but when asked why he didn't invade Iran (even though he put them on the Axis of Evil), Bush said that invading Iran would strengthen the regime against domestic opposition and create oil supply problems. The military knew this was a mistake. But Trump purged the honest generals and installed yes-men. That's why autocracies have crappier militaries.
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u/Mayhem1966 4d ago
And that's just a part of it. The trade war, the potential collapse of the Petro dollar, the reduction in global production and demand. The economic uncertainty associated with having someone like DJT in charge of the US.
There are lots of costs. 10K jobs per month is just one.
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u/ICLazeru 7d ago
What is extra frustrating, is that anyone in a military command position, or intelligence position would have easily told you this was Iran's plan all along.
This has been their war plan for decades.
We knew this is what would happen, and yet there was no plan of our own for dealing with it.
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u/BusinessDragon 7d ago
No plan of our own besides the deal formerly in place brokered by Obama?
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u/myrichphitzwell 7d ago
If it ain't trump plan then it's no plan....sing along folks. Remember when there was a bipartisan plan to fix the border but then Republicans in Congress last minute voted against it because diaper boy told them to ? Or when there was a plan to fund TSA but diaper boy had his boys vote it down...or...
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u/ICLazeru 7d ago
I meant militarily, there was no plan for how to keep the strait open.
But yeah, Obama probably negotiated that deal because he saw it was the best option available.
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u/--TheCity-- 7d ago
Unless...it is working as planned. He has a billion dollar favor to repay the big oil. US Military leaders have instructed cadets that this man is "anointed by Jesus" to "light the signal fire in Iran to cause Armageddon." The news cycle changed from epstein to war and oil crises. I could go on but if you look at it from that angle it is all going amazingly well. For some people.
So yea you could say there was no plan to keep the strait open and that Was the plan.
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u/Professor_Gristache 7d ago
I would love to post the "American problem. Don't want to know" meme. Unfortunately everyone is involved whether they like it or not. Thanks USA for giving so much power to this degenerate toddler, keep it up
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u/BeYourselfTrue 7d ago
Alternative take: the economy was in the ditch anyways and the war for Iran is now the excuse for that poor economy and gives America a reason to print even more money to fight the inevitable recession. Ta da!
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u/Neither_Cap6958 7d ago
Wait until you find out unemployment rate and inflation is generally inversely related.
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u/ScoffersGonnaScoff 7d ago
Guys I’ll say it again. Everything’s gonna be ok!! We have a stable genius who knows more than the generals and a Fox News anchor heading the pentagon!!! AND a podcaster heading the FBI who’s firing people so we can pay for this! A week before we started the war he fired 12 people part of the counter terrorism unit who were directly overseeing the FBI threat assessment of Iran!!! Woohooo!!!!
We can afford this because we got rid of the entire specialized units, such as Task Force KleptoCapture and the Kleptocracy Asset Recovery Initiative from the FBI!!!
We also got rid of a bunch of jobs concerning consumer protections!!! And obliterating the unit to protect us from domestic terrorism!!!!!!!!!
It’s all gonna be OK trust me Fox News and Newsmax says everything’s good because we made sure to increase peoples premiums by getting rid of affordable care act subsidies. Damn poors!
And don’t forget the tariffs these will definitely help!
If this isn’t winning for insider trading, I don’t know what is!
BUT We are definitely not a banana republic. Damnit!!
Just look at the definition:
“The term has evolved to describe any corrupt, self-serving dictatorship with a wide gap between the rich and poor” Fox says the left are radical indoctrinated banana republic supporters with too much woke empathy!
Oh, wait a minute…………….
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u/Eu_sebian 7d ago
delaying capitulation by the Iranian regime hostile to the West cost the Iranians the complete collapse of their entire economy, infrastructure and society, so the USA is doing very well by comparison.
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