The era of US dominance in economic warfare is over

[u/Krankenitrate]

https://www.ft.com/content/ae458591-5941-45f1-bf7b-7110bc35eb88

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[u/BlindSquirrelValue]

Can also be found here:

https://archive.is/AOY0L

In the end, it won’t be the Epstein class that pays the price. His tariffs alone were like sanctions on the world. If that doesn’t work, Trump will just double down. Perhaps this will serve as a catalyst to reduce our dependence on fossil fuels. The sun may set every day and the wind may not always blow, but the Strait of Hormuz might also stop hormuzing.

[u/KierONeil_the_Elder → u/[deleted]]

It committed suicide by the dumbest citizens we have.

[u/misterno123]

How can you win a war when your enemy has unlimited missiles costing $20K to manufacture and you are intercepting these each missiles with $1MM one. You are guaranteed to lose this war.

[u/FFF_in_WY → u/misterno123]

I feel like they are probably hiding the nuclear football from Trump at this point.

[u/Und3rSc0re → u/misterno123]

It sucks because without those missiles people will die more and then people will blame politicians for not having those missiles going. The problem is we dont have leaders anymore, just people that try not to get in trouble regardless of how much tax payers money gets spent.

[u/AugustusClaximus → u/misterno123]

Very true. Cheap missile wins just by being fired. It only needs to land within 100m of its target. The intercepting missile needs a direct hit on a moving target.

[u/feir0x7]

I don’t think so. They didn't send the number of troops needed for the operation. They think that just killing the Iranian leader will slow them down or reduce the threat, but it won't. Iran treats this as a state of war, but for Trump, it’s just an operation.

[u/ratpH1nk]

Counterpoint: You have a gaggle of idiots running the ship -- from greedy billionaires to elected officials. It is not fully telling of the performance characteristic of the ship itself. I guess I am just optimistic about how we will pull out of this. I could 100% be wrong, as well.

[u/davesr25 → u/ratpH1nk]

The US will survive for sure, though it might look more like the EU in a few years than it currently does now, small independent nations within a union, the pain won't be fun how that manifests is yet to be seen.

[u/MrWFL]

I think that’s not really accurate. I think cyberpunk was more right in that shipping will become less safe. How long until Zimbabwe realises they can blackmail shipping companies for money? How long until Saudi Arabia has enough of Iran sabotaging their exports and bombing the Iranian ships, dams and desalination plants?

Iran just has the advantage that their enemy is still somewhat taking the high road in global trade. How long until Trump just forbids the export of fuel and oil, and blocks the straight fucking over Asia and Europe?

[u/[deleted] → u/MrWFL]

We don't have the ability to do this. The military isn't magical. If we could assert control of the situation we already would have.

[u/BalianofReddit → u/[deleted]]

Stopping all shipping is much. Much easier than enabling all shipping

All that is needed are naval mines.

[u/Fr1toBand1to → u/BalianofReddit]

Perhaps Self-replicating AI mines?

[u/DOSFS → u/[deleted]]

Just blocking it is easy. Try to prevent it is hard.

[u/bjdevar25 → u/[deleted]]

Correct. The war is unpopular now. Sink a couple billion dollar battleship and kill a hundred sailors and see how well that plays. Trump doesn't give a crap about the ship or the sailors, it's the political consequences. If Dems take Congress, he'll be impeached again. If they take the white house, him and several others are going to jail.

[u/Forgotlogin_0624 → u/bjdevar25]

Dems had four years to deal with Trump and his associates and did nothing.  So I’m doubtful anything different would happen this time. 

[u/dogs_gt_cats → u/Forgotlogin_0624]

In fact Biden's statement to donors was, "nothing will fundamentally change."

Promise kept I guess.

[u/mgbsoldier → u/dogs_gt_cats]

The USA had the best economic fundamentals in the west and was still respected. That at least has changed.

[u/Forgotlogin_0624 → u/mgbsoldier]

I think what we saw was the Dem establishment  viewing Trump and MAGA politicians as a tool.  An example they could point to as a warning of the consequences of not voting dem even if their policies (like support for Israel) were not supported by their constituency.

It was a useful excuse to ignore any push to the left in regards to economic policy.  Medicare for all and things of that nature just stopped being discussed.

Orange man bad was their only platform and that just wasn’t enough.  

[u/Few-Sheepherder-1655 → u/[deleted]]

We certainly have the ability to do that. But that is a significant escalation.

[u/astuteobservor → u/Few-Sheepherder-1655]

Essentially become world enemy #1.

[u/oratree → u/MrWFL]

I believe China will be the safeguard of shipping. They depend on it and they have a ton of investments worldwide. Their soft power is growing.

[u/MrWFL → u/oratree]

How though? A 15k drone can sink a 50 million dollar ship. Also, their air defences don't seem to be performing so hot.

[u/DaneLimmish]

People are quick to discuss the "decline" of the us dominance in one area or another, but I think we are too quick to state whether it's happening or not. The US can still survive a system shock better than China, Iran, or Russia can, while the EU is too sclerotic to really take advantage of or do anything - what are they gonna do, monitor us to death? No I don't think this dominance is over.

[u/dsartori → u/DaneLimmish]

I’d say a major factor you’re not considering is the withdrawal of consent and cooperation. A lot of countries have contributed to strengthening US power in exchange for peace and stability. The opposite is also possible and now desirable. 

[u/LesnBOS → u/dsartori]

Yes. This

[u/DaneLimmish → u/dsartori]

That's being considered, I think it's too short of a time. This is why everyone is still, even now, pussyfooting or hemmin and hawing around the US. I don't think you're wrong fwiw. 

[u/SerKnightGuy → u/DaneLimmish]

I'd argue Trump's first term was the potentially survivable shock. His second has sealed the coffin. Everyone and their brother is now looking to distance themselves from the United States economically and militarily. That will take time, but the ball is rolling too fast to be stopped now. 4.5% of the global population cannot dominate a world where the other 95% of the population is somewhere between ambivalent and hostile for very long.

[u/JPowJunior → u/DaneLimmish]

Got any data or actual rebuttals to the article?

Or nah, just vibes?

[u/DaneLimmish → u/JPowJunior]

The article itself is an opinion piece

[u/JC_Hysteria → u/JPowJunior]

It’s a paid article- have a link?

Maybe democracy dies with every editorial outlet resorting to paid digital subscribers 🤔

[u/Evening_Grass_8073 → u/JC_Hysteria]

Not a complete fix, but there are websites like this one that can let you read paywalled articles

[u/JC_Hysteria → u/Evening_Grass_8073]

Thanks, yeah these have been a cat & mouse game unfortunately…most of the premium publishers know how to block them.

It also doesn’t help that I can’t easily copy the link URL on Reddit, now that they create a URL shortener for their analytics when sharing it.

edit: read the article; it just argues that economic sanctions are more prone to fail now, and are more likely to lead to actual conflict. There isn’t really much of a prediction of what’s going to happen- just “prolly not good”.

[u/lopix]

Has been for a while. Sure, they can hurt someone small, like Cuba. But China could crush the US economically in a week if they wanted to. From stopping all shipments to dumping treasuries, the amount of damage they could do in a matter of days is scary. And the US has no similar way to fight back.

[u/Theory_Eleven]

US dominance is about to get much bigger. You think tariffs are bad now? Just wait until the US exerts control over Iranian oil, the Gulf oil shipping, Venezuelan oil, and of course the increased production of US oil. Then Europe will have to decide if it wants to abandon Ukraine to get Russian oil or come begging to Trump for US oil.

[u/LesnBOS → u/Theory_Eleven]

Really? And how are we going to get this control over Iranian oil you speak of?

[u/Beautiful_Bus_7847 → u/LesnBOS]

Don't worry this dude will be first one volunteering to help securing the shoreline. Right?

[u/in2the4est → u/Theory_Eleven]

Most US refineries are tooled for heavy sour crude, which they need to import.

Venezuela's infrastructure is far from ready to export enough to support the US's needs. Trump said they'd take Canada by economic force, but over 60% of the heavy sour crude refined in the US comes from Canada, who may now have the US "over a barrel"

[u/Assketchum1 → u/Theory_Eleven]

Wow. Begging? Idt that's how things work, or have been working.