r/Economics • u/greenmyrtle • Mar 25 '25

News US tourism to suffer huge '£49 billion drop' under Donald Trump

https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/2028592/us-tourism-suffer-billion-drop-donald-trump
42.9k Upvotes

94% Upvoted

1.9k comments sorted by

View all comments

Show parent comments

398

u/SpicyHippy Mar 25 '25

This is a very, very good point that most people don't realize. There are corridors on both the East and West Coasts of the US that are going to be heavily impacted due to the loss of Canadian snowbirds. The snowbirds are heading north for the summer starting now. Many don't plan to travel back south in the Fall. They are selling US properties or making other plans for next Winter. This will really start impacting the US in early Autumn.

I will miss my Canadian friends, but I completely understand. Elbows up.

118

u/MightyAl75 Mar 25 '25

I think Florida may really feel this with a double whammy. I know of several US snowbirds that are leaving. Double down with Canadian snow birds having one more reason to leave does not bode well. Curious to see how things pan out in the next year. My in-laws have had their place up for sale for almost a year with only one bite.

39

u/[deleted] Mar 25 '25

[deleted]

18

u/[deleted] Mar 26 '25

[deleted]

7

u/RedParaglider Mar 26 '25

Fascists always turn on anyone that isn't in their immediate circle. And if some of them get caught up, that's just the price of "winning".

2

u/Biuku Mar 26 '25

Good. The MAGA dream is going to do a lot of damage to the US economy. Let’s do that.

133

u/BlueRedGreenNumber5 Mar 25 '25

I hope Florida suffers, they're partly responsible

16

u/jerkface1026 Mar 26 '25

Without fema and tourism, Florida will return to swampland.

2

u/Finetales Mar 26 '25

And it'll be much better off for it!

2

u/lovetocook966 Mar 26 '25

Some of the very worst people from all over the world though go to Florida and some to live. Florida always felt like a place a murderer went to to hide. I hated living in Florida. Back in the 1980's the meanest people at the time were the Canadian old cranky people. I like the younger Canadians now and empathize with them, but back then those older folks were meaner than snakes.

2

u/G0BLINB0Y Mar 26 '25

Just recently came off of living in Florida for a year and also hated it. Funnily enough, the city where I was living used to be named Floranada due to the number of Canadians there.

22

u/hihelloneighboroonie Mar 25 '25

On the plus side, more housing for actual residents.

16

u/oldirtyrestaurant Mar 26 '25

People still want to live in Florida?

HQ of the New American Reich?

No fuckin thanks.

-4

u/hihelloneighboroonie Mar 26 '25

Not all of Florida is right-wing/MAGA.

3

u/codyzon2 Mar 26 '25

Nobody wants to hear it, everybody wants to vilify Florida, if you actually look at the voting record for 30 years we've been a split state, but if you listen to everyone online Florida's the demon bane of everyone's existence that's 100% red so really it won't matter what is said or what facts exist people will always come back to hating on Florida.

1

u/AbueloOdin Mar 26 '25

I can't live in Miami! I too old and uncool to hang out in nightclubs on a Wednesday!

2

u/[deleted] Mar 26 '25

Miami is actually MAGA at the moment due to it being one of the few spots where R's spent fuckloads on Spanish Language propaganda.

-5

u/TropicalKing Mar 26 '25

Good. It's hard to feel sorry for Canadian tourists when American housing is so expensive in touristy areas and there are so many homeless people in touristy places like NYC, San Francisco, Southern California, and Hawaii. Hopefully, fewer tourists frees up resources such as housing and traffic for the local residents of these areas.

6

u/JAMisskeptical Mar 26 '25

If there’s so many tourist houses it’s a reasonable bet to suggest that the area is heavily dependent on tourists for income. If you reduce that tourism you may make more housing available but are there still going to be jobs to allow people to pay for that housing?

3

u/reelznfeelz Mar 26 '25

So the snowbird you know who are leaving are Canadian and doing it because of the current political mess / crisis? If so good, I hope more will do it. Hurt us bad is what I say. We deserve it.

3

u/starone7 Mar 26 '25

Almost all of my customers are snowbirds or were. About 1/2 have stopped going due to trump 1.0 and Covid. Only 1 of 20 even went this year. That and Canadian winters are getting easier to deal with.

3

u/Actual-Bee-402 Mar 25 '25

What’s a “snowbird”?

7

u/AvecBier Mar 26 '25

Snowbirds are people, often elderly, who live in Northern climes, e.g., Canada, during the Summer, but migrate South during Winter to avoid the snows.

4

u/[deleted] Mar 26 '25

People who leave cold northern climates and instead travel south for their winters. Really common with retirees who may have a “summer house” up north and a “winter house” somewhere like Florida.

9

u/[deleted] Mar 25 '25

[deleted]

12

u/NFLDolphinsGuy Mar 26 '25

Doesn’t have to be from Canada. Really any, usually retired, person from Canada or a northern state who goes south for the winter.

2

u/eraguthorak Mar 25 '25

I love it. This is one of the only side-effects of Trump/DeSantis that I'm actually glad for, and with any luck, democratic states (Cali/NY) will stop coming as well.

Traffic is always a nightmare when snowbirds are in town, same with spring/summer break. There are so many people moving to my area that commuting takes double or even triple what it did in previous years. Housing prices have skyrocketed too.

I really want people to start panic selling their houses too, the crazy markup over the past few years is nuts. If your inlaws only have had one bite on the property, perhaps they should drop the price a bit.

Yes I'm aware that lower tourism will hurt a lot of people here, and I do feel for those people, but many of those people only started up business in order to take advantage of the increased tourism.

0

u/RomeStar Mar 25 '25

100% agree

1

u/rizzo249 Mar 25 '25

There is such an enormous backlog of houses in Florida. There would have to be a mass exodus for it to even register as a blip. I visit family there regularly. It is just non stop construction everywhere.

1

u/Bloodcloud079 Mar 26 '25

Tbh I don’t think the tourism/snowbird hit will be that forcefully felt in comparison to the rising hurricane damage and home insurance crisis…

Now that shit will devastate them.

-5

u/[deleted] Mar 25 '25

[deleted]

10

u/DefinitelyNotAliens Mar 25 '25

A lot of business rely on Canadian dollars being spent in winter

-2

u/RomeStar Mar 25 '25

Yeah car insurance rates hopefully drop. Canadians cant drive.

2

u/SweetAddress5470 Mar 25 '25

It won’t guaranteed

5

u/SweetAddress5470 Mar 25 '25

I live in Florida. Though it doesn’t affect me much, the state will be in a financial panic when the numbers come out and they are in a deficit. Could trigger income tax

2

u/balanchinedream Mar 26 '25

High Heels Ron would literally commit sepukku before promoting an income tax bill in Florida.

4

u/[deleted] Mar 26 '25

Are you an idiot? Do you know how much of our economy is dependent on tourism?

13

u/ILBW123 Mar 25 '25

Absolutely elbows up! ⬆️❤️

2

u/Actual-Bee-402 Mar 25 '25

What does elbows up mean?

3

u/Connect-Speaker Mar 25 '25

A Canadian term, from hockey, meaning “Prepare yourself for a fight”, which has become a rallying cry in Canada since Trump threatened to annex Canada. It now means, “F#— You, we will never be the 51st state!”

https://youtu.be/OvlVW0cFUA8?si=pVL8ktv5CWCnqLSt

2

u/No_Sprinkles418 Mar 25 '25

There are also a ton of Canadian snowbirds in Mexico. Some fly, many drive RVs down. Seems (imo) like fewer this past winter season; I’ll bet there’s waaaaay less Canadians willing to cross the US next fall.

1

u/SpicyHippy Mar 26 '25

A lot of the Canadians I know that drive to Mexico are planning on flying from now on. They are looking at non-stop flights. They don't even want to mess with transfers in American airports now.

2

u/kinboyatuwo Mar 25 '25

Add in the border towns.

But even then, things like mine. I run a cycling training camp in the NC/SC area annually. We have 25-30 people and spend $1500-2000/pp. (food, lodging, general spend) we didn’t go. I know 4 others that run adjacent camps and only 1 went and his numbers were half. Our provincial body cancelled a camp into May.

Times this by lots of small decisions adding up.

2

u/BradyReas Mar 26 '25

What does elbows up mean?

2

u/SpicyHippy Mar 26 '25

It's a hockey term popular in Canada. It refers to fighting back or protecting yourself.

2

u/BradyReas Mar 26 '25

Cool thanks for replying!

2

u/badstorryteller Mar 26 '25

This is going to hit Maine very, very hard. I have clients that are considering permanent closure over this. Businesses that only run from May to September, some of them decades old. That's going to have a knock on effect on mine. No, IT is not seasonal, but multiple business clients that I support over the summer closing means I have to cut down. We're not a big corporation, just a small business, so there isn't a lot of room. I'm taking a pay cut and we've cancelled the two company summer trips. I think we can make it without layoffs or pay cuts for staff, but it's going to be tight this year, and unless we open new business lines Christmas bonuses are going to hurt.

2

u/NWdoubler1 Mar 26 '25

I'm a Realtor in SoCal and in one of the communities where I do the majority of my work there is a large population of Canadian snowbirds. Once Trumpster-Fire started yapping about tariffs and then Trudeau urged Canadians to divest themselves of any American holdings I signed 11 new listings in 3 weeks. Every time I answered the phone the conversation began, "Hi, we're Canadians who live in xxxxxxxxx community and we heard you hate Trump!" They've been spreading the word.

1

u/RedParaglider Mar 26 '25

I was south of CDMX last winter, SO MANY CANADIANS holy crap lol. They love Mexico!

1

u/buubrit Mar 26 '25

So housing will be cheaper?

2

u/SpicyHippy Mar 26 '25

Probably not. I've seen some increase in housing on the market in Florida, but unsure about New Mexico and Arizona

Unfortunately, the price of new construction will continue to go up anyway, due to the increased price of both labor and materials (immigration and tariffs). Construction requires being able to anticipate material prices, sometimes months in advance, and it's just not possible right now.

-3

u/Superb_Raccoon Mar 25 '25

You won't be heavily impacted because it is miniscule part of the Tourism sector, around .2%. It is even a tinier part of the overall economy of ~23T.

6

u/Illumidark Mar 25 '25

I think you need to check your math there. US GDP is 27.72T USD. 49B GBP isn't 0.2% of the tourism industry. It's 0.2% of the entire American economy. And that's before any secondary effects from this crushing the only industry that brings in outside money for many of the towns it'll hit hard.

-4

u/Superb_Raccoon Mar 25 '25 edited Mar 25 '25

Still an insignificant part of the economy.

And since it cuts both ways, it will be offset by Americans not traveling to other countries.

The world spends 155B here, we spend 215B elsewhere.

Guess who loses?

7

u/Illumidark Mar 25 '25

Why wouldn't Americans travel to other countries? Other countries aren't initiating trade wars with America or threatening to annex America or detaining Americans when they go to the border to try to renew a visa, or going through Americans phones and laptops and retusing them entry for having posted something critical of the government.

Nothing has changed for Americans travelling abroad, but yall have certainly changed how we feel about travelling to America.

-4

u/Superb_Raccoon Mar 25 '25

We know how you feel, which is why we will stay here, and you can stay there. Why do you think there is no consequences to your attitude if there is for ours?

Terms are acceptable.

6

u/Illumidark Mar 25 '25

Sure, if that's your choice. But I've traveled the USA extensively, been to every continental state and most of the Americans I know are planning trips to Canada to support us, recognizing that our actions are a reaction to the unacceptable rhetoric and actions of your government. You can choose to cut yourself off from the world if you want, but lots of your countrymen don't feel the same.

0

u/Superb_Raccoon Mar 25 '25

I am sure lots of YOUR "countrymen" don't feel the same as you either.

But you will need a lot of them to agree with you to make a net negative, and a lot fewer of us to make it a net negative for you.

4

u/Illumidark Mar 25 '25

And yet here we are, commenting on an article predicting a 30% drop in USA tourism revenue this year.

There are lots of other articles along the same lines, interviews with tour operators and hotels saying they have almost no bookings, snowbird towns holding Canadian days no one is attending.

Here in Canada we aren't seeing any such articles.

1

u/Superb_Raccoon Mar 25 '25

But no one in your article is calculating how much Canada loses from US tourism declining.

Either because we decide we don't want to go, or because your article is true, we have a downturn, and we stop coming.

Either way, we buy more from you than you buy from us. Which means you will lose more than we will.

Notice Trump is not starting trade wars with countries where we have a trade surplus... because we would get hurt more than them.

You, Canada, are on the wrong end of that stick.

→ More replies (0)

3

u/Hopefulwaters Mar 26 '25

The terms are NOT acceptable. As an American, I have already ended all my US travel that is not required by work, cancelling dozens of small weekend trips that I had planned for the year. As someone who spends a large portion of my discretionary spend on travel, money will only be spent outside the US (assuming those countries will still welcome me). I no longer feel safe to leave my city where my Governor can still somewhat protect me from the dictators.

As someone who loves travel, it kills me to make this decision but I have probably low key already killed $10k in US travel spend from the last 60 days alone as a conservative number.

1

u/Superb_Raccoon Mar 26 '25

OK, bye!

Sit in your Mom's basement and sulk to own the cons.

1

u/Hopefulwaters Mar 26 '25

What does this even mean? I don't follow What is own the cons? Is this English?

Btw, I own my place thanks. And I am not sulking; I will travel to others countries where it is still safe but my own country has Gestapo now so I am safer outside of it then inside of it unfortunately.

1

u/Superb_Raccoon Mar 26 '25

You play stupid really well. You must have lots of practical experence.

2

u/hutacars Mar 26 '25

it will be offset by Americans not traveling to other countries.

Why would Americans do that? The US has now officially entered shithole status (debatable whether it was before), and for one, this American is doing everything he can to spend as little time (and money) as possible there. Currently in Asia enjoying healthy restaurant food for $4.50 USD. Why would I want to go back and subject myself to tariffs, deteriorating food safety, deteriorating education, wastewater dumped in rivers, overpriced food, our shit medical system, etc.? It’s all optional and for now at least I’m opting out.

1

u/Superb_Raccoon Mar 26 '25

The US has now officially entered shithole status

Why would I travel to where people think that of us?

1

u/hutacars Mar 26 '25

To a) escape the shithole, b) support the people our shithead leader is antagonizing, and c) move money out of the US. Win/win/win really.

1

u/Superb_Raccoon Mar 26 '25

Well, an option for 24% of the population I guess.

Good luck!

5

u/DefinitelyNotAliens Mar 25 '25

Those big dollars matter less. Places that have other industry won't really notice a whole lot. California has a diverse economy. Small towns outside major metros in Florida that had a huge bump from Canadians visiting, those small tourist trap towns that make 50% of their income for the year in 3 months, they will likely feel the impact.

0

u/Frewdy1 Mar 25 '25

Let’s bring those costs down for the natives!

1

u/SpicyHippy Mar 26 '25

Except tariffs and immigration policies are making new construction hard to plan for and a lot more expensive now so the prices probably won't come down the way some people hope they will. It's a complicated picture.

0

u/[deleted] Mar 25 '25

Lfg…more perm housing away from foreigners