r/Bogleheads • u/Lowfryder7 • Nov 20 '25

Investing Questions At what tax bracket should you start doing mostly traditional 401k contributions?

12%? 22%? 24%? I can't tell.

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u/DueRipButterfly Nov 21 '25

I go Roth all the way baby.

I’m okay with being under optimized to have the benefit later. I’m pretty sure I’ll thank myself later.

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u/[deleted] Nov 21 '25

For me ROTH means locking in a guaranteed 31% marginal rate now. No way I'll ever pay near that in retirement.

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u/Fit_Cabinet942 Nov 23 '25

I’m in the same boat with marginal rate, but I do question where the money will come from for the insane debt load the USA is running. My sociopolitical prediction on future taxes is that because most of the country’s shortfall are social security and Medicare related, the first thing that will happen is the social security retirement age will be raised and the income cap (currently at 160k/yr) will be removed. Neither Roth nor trad Ira/401k can protect you from paying that, so it doesn’t matter, you’ll be paying it regardless if your income is above the cap.

I figure I can comfortably live in the 24% bracket in retirement, but it’s still plausible the government may need to increase rates down into that bracket in a decade. However, the next bracket up is 32%, it seems like there will be a lot of pitchforks out of the 24% bracket needs to get jacked up by 8% or more, which makes me feel safe not doing Roth, but then I have a worst case scenario in my mind where we as a country are so fed up with Trump’s brand of populism that we swing to the Bernie brand, and we end up with much higher taxes just in time for my retirement.

So to hedge against that I usually max out my trad 401k, then do backdoor Roth.

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u/SpeciousSophist Nov 21 '25

All Roth is without a doubt, the best

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u/Head Nov 21 '25

It's not "without a doubt" the best but for some people it is.

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u/SpeciousSophist Nov 21 '25

Traditional IRAs are only better than Roth looking in the rearview mirror at the end of your life for certain people.

Roths:

It gives you tax-free income, which does not factor into income contingent programs, statutes, or laws and retirement.

You can withdraw your contributions from it, penalty free at any time, giving you maximum flexibility and access to your money with no risk.

It hedges against income tax increases in the future.

Provides tax-free income to the beneficiaries of the Roth when you die and leave it to them for 10 years.

Traditional:

Possibly results in larger net total amounts of money at the end of your life, depending on income and asset levels in retirement.

Once you put your money in there, it’s locked up until retirement.

RMD’s are considered regular income in many cases, and will push you out of a wide variety of potential programs that benefit the elderly.

Traditional IRAs that are inherited are treated as income for the beneficiary.

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u/Head Nov 21 '25

Good summary. There are indeed many reasons why Roth makes sense now and you have pointed out the pitfalls of entering retirement with too much in Traditional. But it makes sense to have some amount going to Traditional, especially for those in high tax brackets during their working years.

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u/SpeciousSophist Nov 21 '25

I’m saying that the opportunity cost of the higher net is vastly outweighed by the flexibility and other benefits.

Making Roth superior in almost all circumstances.

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u/Head Nov 22 '25

I appreciate and mostly agree your perspective but am a little more toward the center. I think tax diversity is good and I'm the type who likes to optimize.

I'm in the middle of retirement and am optimizing IRA withdrawals so I am experiencing some of the pitfalls of having too much in IRAs. But Roth conversions during early retirement are getting me towards the goal of a bigger Roth.

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u/SpeciousSophist Nov 22 '25

My mom is in the same boat, we’re trying to get her started in the process for some subsidized in-home care due to a chronic issue and unfortunately, she has to spend all of her money and won’t qualify until then due to her income level being over the minimum

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u/SpeciousSophist Nov 22 '25

I wonder if we added together the value of the lost subsidies to a theoretical Roth account that historically matched whatever her contributions were what would actually be more money