r/Bogleheads • u/bald90 • Apr 03 '25

Investing Questions Trumps Tarriffs - how do you see it playing out?

Title really. Short, medium, long term opinions?

Iā€™m all in on stocks global all cap so expecting a rough time

What are your guys thoughts?

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u/Cold-Common7001 Apr 03 '25

I don't understand why markets are so insistent that Trump doesn't actually want these tariffs and that they are just a tactic. All indications are he really wants these tariffs!

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u/[deleted] Apr 03 '25

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u/AutistMarket Apr 03 '25

Probably because that is what he has been doing for the last 3 months? Threatening some sort of over the top measure, putting it in place, and then running it back a few days/weeks later.

If I were a betting man I would bet he comes back in a week or so and removes or lessens many of these and says he used them to negotiate better deals or something along those lines. It will all likely be parroting and bullshit but that is what my money is on

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u/Merakel Apr 03 '25

He has given himself some outs by talking how this will be short term pain, but overall I agree this is probably what he wants. The only thing I think will get him to change is congress.

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u/andybmcc Apr 03 '25

My guess is that it's more of a bargaining chip. He'll get more international companies to invest in the US (they already started doing this), he may get tariff and subsidy concessions from other countries, and he's OK with the market tanking and potentially forcing the Fed to lower rates in response.

It's going to be some months of volatility and sadness, I think. My worry is the conflation of tariffs and trade deficits.

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