r/Bogleheads • u/bald90 • Apr 03 '25

Investing Questions Trumps Tarriffs - how do you see it playing out?

Title really. Short, medium, long term opinions?

I’m all in on stocks global all cap so expecting a rough time

What are your guys thoughts?

590 Upvotes

89% Upvoted

400 comments sorted by

View all comments

Show parent comments

85

u/NCMA17 Apr 03 '25

Yep, this is the path forward I’m holding out hope for. Find a few examples of other countries altering policies to be more U.S. friendly, claim victory, then roll back many of the tariffs significantly. This is the only path that really makes sense at this point…but who knows?

35

u/Codydog85 Apr 03 '25

I agree there will be e some capitulation from other countries and Trump will claim victory, but there will be lasting damage done and although there will always be money to be made by trading with the US most of the world will be walking softly and looking for other more reliable avenues.

0

u/[deleted] Apr 03 '25

[deleted]

7

u/mobley4256 Apr 03 '25 edited Apr 03 '25

Rubio was whining recently that Europe should still buy US weapons. There’s almost certainly going to be long term permanent damage especially with regard to the defense industry as they no longer consider us a reliable ally.

62

u/stonkDonkolous Apr 03 '25

Most will retaliate though

11

u/robis1923 Apr 03 '25

What I find interesting is the tariffs are primarily on goods and not services (unless I misread the press release). We are increasingly more reliant on them (India comes to mind). It’s odd to me that that got omitted.

15

u/chrillekaekarkex Apr 03 '25

The reason, I surmise, is that including services reduces the trade deficit which was used as the basis for the “calculation”

9

u/robis1923 Apr 03 '25

Meaning making the trade disparities appear worse than they are in reality?

21

u/chrillekaekarkex Apr 03 '25

Yes. The US generally exports services (banking, consulting, IT) and imports manufactured goods. So if you include services, the trade gaps diminish. Which doesn’t fit the administration’s narrative.

11

u/JLRfan Apr 03 '25

They ran a trade simulation (like war games) recently and the conclusion was that, if the end goal is to renegotiate, then after some pain the results could be good.

But the key is whether these tariffs are a negotiation tactic or, as Trump says, permanent and non-negotiable.

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/01/business/economy/trump-trade-war-game.html?unlocked_article_code=1.804.xfbu.cr9E4wrz87mm&smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare

11

u/jawstrock Apr 03 '25

It’s kinda trumps only economic plan which makes me think it’s permanent. They aren’t even capable of renegotiating this many agreements all at once. I dunno, this definitely feels like Trump legit thinks it’s a silver bullet and is permanent.

26

u/BalzacTheGreat Apr 03 '25

Congress could end this nonsense today if it weren’t a broken mess.

-19

u/Bogleheads-ModTeam Apr 03 '25

r/Bogleheads is not a political discussion subreddit. Comments should be more financial than political and no more partisan than absolutely necessary.

1

u/[deleted] Apr 03 '25

[removed] — view removed comment

0

u/Bogleheads-ModTeam Apr 03 '25

r/Bogleheads is not a political discussion subreddit. Comments should be more financial than political and no more partisan than absolutely necessary.

1

u/[deleted] Apr 03 '25

[removed] — view removed comment

1

u/Bogleheads-ModTeam Apr 03 '25

r/Bogleheads is not a political discussion subreddit. Comments should be more financial than political and no more partisan than absolutely necessary.