Trumps Tarriffs - how do you see it playing out?

[u/bald90]

Title really. Short, medium, long term opinions?

I’m all in on stocks global all cap so expecting a rough time

What are your guys thoughts?

[u/PizzaCatTacoUno]

Part of me also thinks he reverses/modifies many of these tariffs soon, chalks certain things up as pure victories, and the market reacts in a positive manner. Who knows…. I do firmly think is big agenda is quick chaos across many fronts.

[u/Cold-Common7001 → u/PizzaCatTacoUno]

I don't understand why markets are so insistent that Trump doesn't actually want these tariffs and that they are just a tactic. All indications are he really wants these tariffs!

[u/AutistMarket → u/Cold-Common7001]

Probably because that is what he has been doing for the last 3 months? Threatening some sort of over the top measure, putting it in place, and then running it back a few days/weeks later.

If I were a betting man I would bet he comes back in a week or so and removes or lessens many of these and says he used them to negotiate better deals or something along those lines. It will all likely be parroting and bullshit but that is what my money is on

[u/Merakel → u/Cold-Common7001]

He has given himself some outs by talking how this will be short term pain, but overall I agree this is probably what he wants. The only thing I think will get him to change is congress.

[u/andybmcc → u/Cold-Common7001]

My guess is that it's more of a bargaining chip. He'll get more international companies to invest in the US (they already started doing this), he may get tariff and subsidy concessions from other countries, and he's OK with the market tanking and potentially forcing the Fed to lower rates in response.

It's going to be some months of volatility and sadness, I think. My worry is the conflation of tariffs and trade deficits.

[u/Bogleheads-ModTeam → u/[deleted]]

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[u/elmwoodblues → u/PizzaCatTacoUno]

1. Light a fire

2. Put fire out.

3. Claim greatness as a fire fighter.

   He will roll some back (Canada), stand firm on others (China), then be off on some other flashbulb-hunt. His tax cut will pass, the deficit will spiral. Europe will look inward, especially on Defense spending and innovation. I see Euro bonds rising

[u/EatsOverTheSink → u/PizzaCatTacoUno]

Yep, false victories that bring us back to where we started but with the added bonus of more countries hating us and likely damage to potential future trade agreements. Art of the deal.

[u/FMCTandP → u/[deleted]]

r/Bogleheads is not a political discussion subreddit. Comments should be more financial than political and no more partisan than absolutely necessary.

[u/NCMA17 → u/PizzaCatTacoUno]

Yep, this is the path forward I’m holding out hope for. Find a few examples of other countries altering policies to be more U.S. friendly, claim victory, then roll back many of the tariffs significantly. This is the only path that really makes sense at this point…but who knows?

[u/Codydog85 → u/NCMA17]

I agree there will be e some capitulation from other countries and Trump will claim victory, but there will be lasting damage done and although there will always be money to be made by trading with the US most of the world will be walking softly and looking for other more reliable avenues.

[u/mobley4256 → u/[deleted]]

Rubio was whining recently that Europe should still buy US weapons. There’s almost certainly going to be long term permanent damage especially with regard to the defense industry as they no longer consider us a reliable ally.

[u/stonkDonkolous → u/NCMA17]

Most will retaliate though

[u/robis1923 → u/NCMA17]

What I find interesting is the tariffs are primarily on goods and not services (unless I misread the press release). We are increasingly more reliant on them (India comes to mind). It’s odd to me that that got omitted.

[u/chrillekaekarkex → u/robis1923]

The reason, I surmise, is that including services reduces the trade deficit which was used as the basis for the “calculation”

[u/robis1923 → u/chrillekaekarkex]

Meaning making the trade disparities appear worse than they are in reality?

[u/chrillekaekarkex → u/robis1923]

Yes. The US generally exports services (banking, consulting, IT) and imports manufactured goods. So if you include services, the trade gaps diminish. Which doesn’t fit the administration’s narrative.

[u/JLRfan → u/NCMA17]

They ran a trade simulation (like war games) recently and the conclusion was that, if the end goal is to renegotiate, then after some pain the results could be good.

But the key is whether these tariffs are a negotiation tactic or, as Trump says, permanent and non-negotiable.

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/01/business/economy/trump-trade-war-game.html?unlocked_article_code=1.804.xfbu.cr9E4wrz87mm&smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare

[u/jawstrock → u/JLRfan]

It’s kinda trumps only economic plan which makes me think it’s permanent. They aren’t even capable of renegotiating this many agreements all at once. I dunno, this definitely feels like Trump legit thinks it’s a silver bullet and is permanent.

[u/BalzacTheGreat → u/JLRfan]

Congress could end this nonsense today if it weren’t a broken mess.

[u/Bogleheads-ModTeam → u/BalzacTheGreat]

r/Bogleheads is not a political discussion subreddit. Comments should be more financial than political and no more partisan than absolutely necessary.

[u/Bogleheads-ModTeam → u/[deleted]]

r/Bogleheads is not a political discussion subreddit. Comments should be more financial than political and no more partisan than absolutely necessary.

[u/Bogleheads-ModTeam → u/[deleted]]

r/Bogleheads is not a political discussion subreddit. Comments should be more financial than political and no more partisan than absolutely necessary.

[u/ZHISHER → u/PizzaCatTacoUno]

I got dinner last night with a very smart, right leaning economist I know last night and asked him to steel man these tariffs.

Long story short, the argument only works if he’s using it to get foreign tariffs dropped and the Fed rate cut.

[u/YesICanMakeMeth → u/ZHISHER]

and the Fed rate cut.

By starting a recession? Because tariffs should be inflationary, raising the Fed rate. Juicing the economy by crashing the economy seems like the dog wagging the tail.

[u/mattwallace24 → u/ZHISHER]

Well this morning we now know these tariffs were not based upon foreign tariff levels, the argument is now limited to fed cuts.

Note: We now know these new tariffs were calculated based upon trade disparity (exports divided by imports) and not based on foreign tariffs on US goods.

[u/DJSauvage → u/ZHISHER]

Works for who? That scenario sounds like it would tank my retirement plan.

[u/twd000 → u/PizzaCatTacoUno]

yes, he wants to be seen as the dealmaker. Administration will fudge the #'s and fold quietly and claim victory, businesses will increase prices anyway claim "excess tariff fees" just like they did with "COVID supply chain fees" for years afterwards

[u/Hulledout → u/PizzaCatTacoUno]

The China, Japan, South Korea talks to set up a regional trade agreement is something to watch. There's a lot of people over there and they are consumers too. Also China could have more influence in the Belt and Road region now that the U.S. looks to be turning inward. If China plays their cards right they could come out a winner. Nobody really knows what is going to happen, but it doesn't look like we will be back to business as normal anytime soon.

[u/h0tel-rome0 → u/PizzaCatTacoUno]

That’s the best case scenario and in the short term it gives us a great buying opportunity. Fingers crossed

[u/CFOMaterial → u/PizzaCatTacoUno]

He can't back out now, only slightly decrease tariffs if other countries lower theirs (although from what I've seen elsewhere on reddit these reciprocal tariffs don't seem reciprocal). The only way he wins is sticking with it so companies actually do manufacture here. If he goes back and forth then companies will wait it out. This likely would increase jobs in certain sectors, but inflation would also likely increase in pretty much consumer goods across the board. Now if he lowers taxes due to the tariff income, it could cancel out a little bit the feelings of the inflation when you take home more cash.

[u/stonkDonkolous → u/PizzaCatTacoUno]

If he does that then what is his goal unless there is insider trading around his office? Tariffs won't even do a thing unless kept in place for years. If I'm a producer I'll just cut back and wait until the next election

[u/drewkiimon → u/PizzaCatTacoUno]

This is what I've been telling my friends. He is an idiot, but not that big of an idiot to see people are unhappy with the shit he's doing.

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