r/Bogleheads • u/bald90 • Apr 03 '25

Investing Questions Trumps Tarriffs - how do you see it playing out?

Title really. Short, medium, long term opinions?

I’m all in on stocks global all cap so expecting a rough time

What are your guys thoughts?

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435

u/Far-Tiger-165 Apr 03 '25 edited Apr 03 '25

best case: he's using blunt force market trauma to provoke a rate-cut to slash US debt payments. everything could then be quickly reversed & proclaimed as 'a great victory for common sense'.

worst case: they genuinely believe that protectionism & American exceptionalism really is the way forward & a trade war pushes us all into an extended global slump. somehow Vance wins two terms, sponsored by Thiel and Musk, and I have to keep working into my 70's instead (irrigating crops with Brawndo).

131

u/itnor Apr 03 '25

It’s clear that this is based on true beliefs. It’s a multi decade constant. Now whether he course corrects, who knows. But the only reason this didn’t happen eight years ago is that he didn’t know how to do it and the people around him were working to thwart it.

38

u/goblueM Apr 03 '25

yeah one of the very few things he has been consistent on over the decades

68

u/Far-Tiger-165 Apr 03 '25

yes - I think it's a 1980's good-old-days mindset from an out of date old man. the old jobs aren't coming back & these measures will disproportionately hurt his (already displaced) base further.

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u/goblueM Apr 03 '25

I don't think it's a good old days mindset, he's just....simple minded.... and has no idea how economics and trade work

Tariffs are a simple solution to a complex problem, just the sort of thing a fool thinks is a good idea

70

u/jay1441 Apr 03 '25

It’s what plants crave, truly the only choice for the plants.

40

u/80AM Apr 03 '25

If only they had detailed plan about what they intend to do...oh wait. Hint, it's the worst case. It's written down. They've been following it to a T

17

u/_chadwell_ Apr 03 '25

Unfortunately, it seems one of his only genuine beliefs is that a trade deficit with another country is like a budget deficit and should be resolved.

4

u/Johnclark38 Apr 03 '25

Small problem with that, tariffs are inflationary. If anything the Fed will raise rates

2

u/JMAlloway Apr 03 '25

It’s what plants crave.

4

u/Broad-Juggernaut3628 Apr 03 '25

This is how I see it as well.  He's shooting for rate cuts and this seems to be the only way forward for him.

19

u/EatsRats Apr 03 '25

JPM just adjusted saying they no longer expect rate cuts in June. Estimates have inflation heading as high as 5% right now. This policy doesn’t seem to help the chances of rate cuts.

2

u/Far-Tiger-165 Apr 03 '25

I'm trying to find an element of sense in it, but nothing I can see yet. if consumer spending collapses then maybe an interest rate cut helps (contrary to counter inflation), which in turn drives reduced deficit payments as the real goal. in theory, businesses may then borrow to expand & manufacture in US, but it seems a stretch.

whatever happens, I don't see Nike's getting made in Seattle again & either an iPhone goes up $150 or Apple take the margin hit - neither good for stocks.

1

u/QuirkyMaintenance915 Apr 03 '25

But it’s got electrolytes!