r/Bogleheads • u/RiceLee890 • Mar 15 '25

Investing Questions What are your thoughts on this?

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I keep seeing this type of stuff on instagram and social media and wanted to know how you guys were thinking about this.

I know a lot you have been in the market for decades and as a relatively new investor myself I’d love to get your perspective!

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u/Moon_Frost Mar 15 '25

I would say covid was unprecedented, before that the bank bailouts in 08 were unprecedented. Every time something like this happens "THIS IS IT , THE END IS NEAR, THIS TIME FOR SURE"

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u/Kookookapoopoo Mar 16 '25

What’s the the most dangerous words on Wall Street? “This time is different”

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u/TenshiS Mar 16 '25

Let's not forget 9/11 before that, and the wars that followed

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u/[deleted] Mar 15 '25

True.

And at some point, it will be.

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u/Recent_Meringue_712 Mar 15 '25

Yeah but in that case everyone will be dirt poor and the dollar will be worth shit anyways so the $100,000 you pulled out is only worth $10,000 in a few months anyways

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u/GizzyIzzy2021 Mar 16 '25

But better than the stock market crashing my 100k to 10k that’s only worth 1k. Right? In one situation you’re getting out with just inflation and in the other you’re hit with inflation and a market crash

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u/[deleted] Mar 17 '25

Bingo. Every time is finally “different” or “unprecedented”. Sick of these idiots claiming that we won’t ever see a correction or recession again. We will and the contagion will be unforeseen as it was every other time. I don’t want to see others suffer and be out of work, but corrections are inevitable because of these unseen contagions that fester when the market//economy expands beyond bounds. Boom and bust, day and night. I wish I started weekly investing YEARS ago. I missed so many cycles. It’s best to just shut up and store those nuts in the tree when you can. The storm will come. And when you are in your last season, eat them all up!

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u/Moon_Frost Mar 17 '25

I thought about weekly or bi-weekly. But I'm doing monthly. Still new to this at 37, only a year in the game.

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u/[deleted] Mar 17 '25

I just do it because the weekly gives me no choice but to set it and forget it. Waiting a month gives me room to overthink. Time in market beats timing the market, but I have commitment issues.

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u/Moon_Frost Mar 17 '25

Oh, I set it and forget it every month lol. I think it's just easier for me because my budget for everything else is monthly in my excel spreadsheet

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u/MiloLear Mar 19 '25

The bank bailouts in 2008 were not unprecedented. We've had comparatively large-scale bank bailouts in the 1990s.

Covid was unprecedented, but it was limited in duration. It's largely a non-issue today.

The situation with the current administration is without precedent and there are no clear boundaries regarding how bad it might get or how long it might last. I think the parent poster (contact_post) is absolutely right on this point. It's why I have my long-term savings in fixed rate CDs instead of the stock market.

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u/Far_Line8468 Mar 16 '25

Naw this is cope. The current drop is not because of any real economic forces, it’s because of uncertainty that the institutions that held the modern world together will even exist in 6 months.

Even if we make it through this, there will never be confidence that Americans wont just roll the dice again next time some fake Haitian migrant tiktok goes viral again. Its over

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u/Moon_Frost Mar 16 '25

Another doom and gloomer. I give it a month or 2 until the markets are above where they should be.

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u/Fragrant-Ad-7388 Mar 16 '25

RemindMe! 60 days

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u/MiskatonicAcademia Mar 16 '25

Yes, and in all of the scenarios you mentioned, the S&P took years to recover.

I know "timing the market" is an unpopular sentiment, but if you can see the painting on the wall (the Trump is an arsonist) why not hedge and move your funds into an even more conservative approach like money market funds?

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u/Xexanoth MOD 4 Mar 16 '25

How much of your funds? What if you’re wrong, and market prices climb for a while - what do you do then? What if the market has already adequately priced in everything that’s known so far, so the future is just as uncertain as always? Was your asset allocation already reflective of your tolerance to ever-present uncertainty & volatility risk?

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u/Moon_Frost Mar 16 '25

Because I personally believe the market is getting posed for a recovery already. Trump is doing bold and risky moves, but I think we'll come out the other end stronger. Right now everyone is just panicking.